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Assessment of the association between dust storms and COVID-19 infection rate in southwest Iran.

ABSTRACT: This study assesses a plausible correlation between a dust intrusion episode and a daily increase in COVID-19 cases. A surge in COVID-19 cases was observed a few days after a Middle East Dust (MED) event that peaked on 25^th April 2020 in southwest Iran. To investigate potential causal factors for the spike in number of cases, cross-correlations between daily combined aerosol optical depths (AODs) and confirmed cases were computed for Khuzestan, Iran. Additionally, atmospheric stability data time series were assessed by covering before, during, and after dust intrusion, producing four statistically clustered distinct city groups. Groups 1 and 2 had different peak lag times of 10 and 4-5 days, respectively. Since there were statistically significant associations between AOD levels and confirmed cases in both groups, dust incursion may have increased population susceptibility to COVID-19 disease. Group 3 was utilized as a control group with neither a significant level of dust incursion during the episodic period nor any significant associations. Group 4 cities, which experienced high dust incursion levels, showed no significant correlation with confirmed case count increases. Random Forest Analysis assessed the influence of wind speed and AOD, showing relative importance of 0.31 and 0.23 on the daily increase percent of confirmed cases, respectively. This study may serve as a reference for better understanding and predicting factors affecting COVID-19 transmission and diffusion routes, focusing on the role of MED intrusions.

SUBMITTER: Broomandi P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8776378 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The impact of dust storms on human health has been studied in the context of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian storms, but there has been no recent population-level epidemiological research on the dust storms in North America. The relevance of dust storms to public health is likely to increase as extreme weather events are predicted to become more frequent with anticipated changes in climate through the 21st century.We examined the association between dust storms and county-level non-accidental mortality in the United States from 1993 through 2005.Dust storm incidence data, including date and approximate location, are taken from the U.S. National Weather Service storm database. County-level mortality data for the years 1993-2005 were acquired from the National Center for Health Statistics. Distributed lag conditional logistic regression models under a time-stratified case-crossover design were used to study the relationship between dust storms and daily mortality counts over the whole United States and in Arizona and California specifically. End points included total non-accidental mortality and three mortality subgroups (cardiovascular, respiratory, and other non-accidental).We estimated that for the United States as a whole, total non-accidental mortality increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 1.6, 13.5; p = 0.011) and 6.7% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.6; p = 0.018) at 2- and 3-day lags, respectively, and by an average of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.4, 5.1; p = 0.023) over lags 0-5 compared with referent days. Significant associations with non-accidental mortality were estimated for California (lag 2 and 0-5 day) and Arizona (lag 3), for cardiovascular mortality in the United States (lag 2) and Arizona (lag 3), and for other non-accidental mortality in California (lags 1-3 and 0-5).Dust storms are associated with increases in lagged non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality. Citation: Crooks JL, Cascio WE, Percy MS, Reyes J, Neas LM, Hilborn ED. 2016. The association between dust storms and daily non-accidental mortality in the United States, 1993-2005. Environ Health Perspect 124:1735-1743;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP216.

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Assessment of the association between dust storms and COVID-19 infection rate in southwest Iran.

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