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COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Canada Modelling Waning and Boosting COVID-19 Immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network Study.


ABSTRACT: COVID-19 seroprevalence changes over time, with infection, vaccination, and waning immunity. Seroprevalence estimates are needed to determine when increased COVID-19 vaccination coverage is needed, and when booster doses should be considered, to reduce the spread and disease severity of COVID-19 infection. We use an age-structured model including infection, vaccination and waning immunity to estimate the distribution of immunity to COVID-19 in the Canadian population. This is the first mathematical model to do so. We estimate that 60-80% of the Canadian population has some immunity to COVID-19 by late Summer 2021, depending on specific characteristics of the vaccine and the waning rate of immunity. Models results indicate that increased vaccination uptake in age groups 12-29, and booster doses in age group 50+ are needed to reduce the severity COVID-19 Fall 2021 resurgence.

SUBMITTER: Dick DW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8779812 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Canada Modelling Waning and Boosting COVID-19 Immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network Study.

Dick David W DW   Childs Lauren L   Feng Zhilan Z   Li Jing J   Röst Gergely G   Buckeridge David L DL   Ogden Nick H NH   Heffernan Jane M JM  

Vaccines 20211223 1


COVID-19 seroprevalence changes over time, with infection, vaccination, and waning immunity. Seroprevalence estimates are needed to determine when increased COVID-19 vaccination coverage is needed, and when booster doses should be considered, to reduce the spread and disease severity of COVID-19 infection. We use an age-structured model including infection, vaccination and waning immunity to estimate the distribution of immunity to COVID-19 in the Canadian population. This is the first mathemati  ...[more]

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