COVID-19 Seroprevalence in Canada Modelling Waning and Boosting COVID-19 Immunity in Canada a Canadian Immunization Research Network Study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Dick DW
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8779812 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has caused devastating health and economic impacts around the globe since its appearance in late 2019. The advent of effective vaccines leads to open questions on how best to vaccinate the population. To address such questions, we developed a model of COVID-19 infection by age that includes the waning and boosting of immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in the context of infection and vaccination. The model also accounts for changes to infectivity of the virus, such as public health mitigation protocols over time, increases in the transmissibility of variants of concern, changes in compliance to mask wearing and social distancing, and changes in testing rates. The model is employed to study public health mitigation and vaccination of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada, including different vaccination programs (rollout by age), and delays between doses in a two-dose vaccine. We find that the decision to delay the second dose of vaccine is appropriate in the Canadian context. We also find that the benefits of a COVID-19 vaccination program in terms of reductions in infections is increased if vaccination of 15-19 year olds are included in the vaccine rollout.
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Project description:Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination wanes over time in a non-linear fashion, making modelling of likely population impacts of COVID-19 policy options challenging. We observed that it was possible to mathematize non-linear waning of vaccine effectiveness (VE) on the percentage scale as linear waning on the log-odds scale, and developed a random effects logistic regression equation based on UK Health Security Agency data to model VE against Omicron following two and three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. VE on the odds scale reduced by 47% per month for symptomatic infection after two vaccine doses, lessening to 35% per month for hospitalisation. Waning on the odds scale after triple dose vaccines was 35% per month for symptomatic disease and 19% for hospitalisation. This log-odds system for estimating waning and boosting of COVID-19 VE provides a simple solution that may be used to parametrize SARS-CoV-2 immunity over time parsimoniously in epidemiological models.
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Project description:BackgroundThere is no uniform guideline for postchemotherapy vaccination of children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We evaluated waning immunity to 14 pneumococcal serotypes, pertussis toxin (PT), tetanus toxoid (TT) and varicella, and immunogenicity of postchemotherapy diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, polio, and Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTaP-IPV-Hib) and pneumococcal vaccination among previously vaccinated children treated for ALL.MethodsThis was a multicenter trial of children with ALL enrolled 4-12 months postchemotherapy completion. Exclusion criteria included: infant ALL, relapsed ALL, and stem cell transplant recipients. Immunocompetent children were recruited as controls. Postchemotherapy participants received DTaP-IPV-Hib and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) concurrently, followed by 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) 2 months later. Serology was measured at baseline, 2 and 12 months postvaccination. Adverse events were captured via surveys.ResultsAt enrollment, postchemotherapy participants (n = 74) were less likely than controls (n = 78) to be age-appropriately immunized with DTaP (41% vs 89%, P < .001) and PCV (59% vs 79%, P = .008). Geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) to TT, PT, PCV serotypes, and varicella were lower in postchemotherapy participants than controls after adjusting for previous vaccine doses (P < .001). Two months postvaccination, GMCs to TT, PT, and PCV serotypes increased from baseline (P < .001 for all antigens) and remained elevated at 12 months postvaccination. Antibody levels to PPV23 serotypes also increased postvaccination (P < .001). No serious adverse events were reported.ConclusionsChildren treated for ALL had lower antibody levels than controls against pneumococcal serotypes, tetanus, pertussis, and varicella despite previous vaccination. Postchemotherapy vaccination with DTaP-IPV-Hib, PCV13, and PPV23 was immunogenic and well tolerated. Children with ALL would benefit from systematic revaccination postchemotherapy.Clinical trials registrationNCT02447718.
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Project description:We aimed to determine population immunity to measles in Canada, and to assess the risk of future outbreaks. We tested 11,176 sera from Cycles 2 (2009-2011) and 3 (2011-2013) cohorts from the biobank of Statistics Canada's Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS) using the BioPlex 2220 MMRV IgG assay. We then tested all BioPlex negative and equivocal samples using a more sensitive Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT). We determined the weighted proportion of positive, equivocal, and negative samples by age, sex, region and whether individuals were born in Canada. We found that 90.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.2, 91.9) of samples were positive, 4.5% (95% CI: 3.4, 5.5) were equivocal and 5.5% (95% CI: 4.3, 6.7) were negative. Individuals in the 12-19 year age band had the lowest proportion positive at 78.7% (95% CI: 74.2, 83.2) and the highest proportion of positive samples was found in those 60-79 years (99.6%, 95% CI: 99.3, 99.9). Seropositivity was consistently <90% across a broad range of pediatric and adult age bands (6-39 years). We found that a slightly higher proportion of females were positive (91.9%, 95% CI: 90.1, 93.6) compared to males (88.3%, 95% CI: 85.8, 90.7). When taking into account interaction between age and born in Canada status, we found individuals born in Canada aged 19 and under were less susceptible (OR = 0.6 (95% CI: 0.4, 0.95)) compared to those born outside Canada whereas, those aged 20 and over were more susceptible (OR = 1.7 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.8)). Our findings indicate that measles immunity in Canada is below the 95% immunity threshold required to sustain measles elimination, underscoring the importance of maintaining high vaccine coverage to prevent future measles outbreaks and sustain Canada's elimination status.
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Project description:Since the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we have witnessed a revolution in vaccine development with the rapid emergence and deployment of both traditional and novel vaccine platforms. The inactivated CoronaVac vaccine and the mRNA-based Pfizer/BNT162b2 vaccine are among the most widely distributed vaccines, both demonstrating high, albeit variable, vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 over time. Beyond the ability of the vaccines to generate neutralizing antibodies, antibodies can attenuate disease via their ability to recruit the cytotoxic and opsinophagocytic functions of the immune response. However, whether Fc-effector functions are induced differentially, wane with different kinetics, and are boostable, remains unknown. Here, using systems serology, we profiled the Fc-effector profiles induced by the CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccines, over time. Despite the significantly higher antibody functional responses induced by the BNT162b2 vaccine, CoronaVac responses waned more slowly, albeit still found at levels below those present in the systemic circulation of BNT162b2 immunized individuals. However, mRNA boosting of the CoronaVac vaccine responses resulted in the induction of significantly higher peak antibody functional responses with increased humoral breadth, including to Omicron. Collectively, the data presented here point to striking differences in vaccine platform-induced functional humoral immune responses, that wane with different kinetics, and can be functionally rescued and expanded with boosting.
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Project description:The mass vaccination program has been actively promoted since the end of 2020. However, waning immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), and increased transmissibility of variants make the herd immunity untenable and the implementation of dynamic zero-COVID policy challenging in China. To explore how long the vaccination program can prevent China at low resurgence risk, and how these factors affect the long-term trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemics, we developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 incorporating vaccination and waning immunity, calibrated using the data of accumulative vaccine doses administered and the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 in mainland China. The prediction suggests that the vaccination coverage with at least one dose reach 95.87%, and two doses reach 77.92% on 31 August 2021. However, despite the mass vaccination, randomly introducing infected cases in the post-vaccination period causes large outbreaks quickly with waning immunity, particularly for SARS-CoV-2 variants with higher transmissibility. The results showed that with the current vaccination program and 50% of the population wearing masks, mainland China can be protected at low resurgence risk until 8 January 2023. However, ADE and higher transmissibility for variants would significantly shorten the low-risk period by over 1 year. Furthermore, intermittent outbreaks can occur while the peak values of the subsequent outbreaks decrease, indicating that subsequent outbreaks boosted immunity in the population level, further indicating that follow-up vaccination programs can help mitigate or avoid the possible outbreaks. The findings revealed that the integrated effects of multiple factors: waning immunity, ADE, relaxed interventions, and higher variant transmissibility, make controlling COVID-19 challenging. We should prepare for a long struggle with COVID-19, and not entirely rely on the COVID-19 vaccine.
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Project description:BackgroundVaccine effectiveness (VE) studies provide essential evidence on waning vaccine-derived immunity, a major threat to pertussis control. We evaluated how study design affects estimates by comparing 2 case-control studies conducted in Ontario, Canada.MethodsWe compared results from a test-negative design (TND) with a frequency-matched design (FMD) case-control study using pertussis cases from 2005-2015. In the first study, we identified test-negative controls from the public health laboratory that diagnosed cases and, in the second, randomly selected controls from patients attending the same physicians that reported cases, frequency matched on age and year. We compared characteristics of cases and controls using standardized differences.ResultsIn both designs, VE estimates for the early years postimmunization were consistent with clinical trials (TND, 84%; FMD, 89% at 1-3 years postvaccination) but diverged as time since last vaccination increased (TND, 41%; FMD, 74% by 8 years postvaccination). Overall, we observed lower VE and faster waning in the TND than the FMD. In the TND but not FMD, controls differed from cases in important confounders, being younger, having more comorbidities, and higher healthcare use. Differences between the controls of each design were greater than differences between cases. TND controls were more likely to be unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated than FMD controls (P < .001).ConclusionsThe FMD adjusted better for healthcare-seeking behavior than the TND. Duration of protection from pertussis vaccines is unclear because estimates vary by study design. Caution should be exercised by experts, researchers, and decision makers when evaluating evidence on optimal timing of boosters.
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Project description:BackgroundNunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the course of these outbreaks.MethodsWe used an agent-based model of disease transmission to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut. The model encapsulated demographics and household structure of the population, the effect of NPIs, and daily number of vaccine doses administered. We fitted the model to inferred, back-calculated infections from incidence data reported from October 2020 to June 2021. We then compared the fit of the scenario based on case count data with several counterfactual scenarios without the effect of NPIs, without vaccination, and with a hypothetical accelerated vaccination program whereby 98% of the vaccine supply was administered to eligible individuals.ResultsWe found that, without a territory-wide lockdown during the first COVID-19 outbreak in November 2020, the peak of infections would have been 4.7 times higher with a total of 5,404 (95% CrI: 5,015-5,798) infections before the start of vaccination on January 6, 2021. Without effective NPIs, we estimated a total of 4,290 (95% CrI: 3,880-4,708) infections during the second outbreak under the pace of vaccination administered in Nunavut. In a hypothetical accelerated vaccine rollout, the total infections during the second Nunavut outbreak would have been 58% lower, to 1,812 (95% CrI: 1,593-2,039) infections. Vaccination was estimated to have the largest impact during the outbreak in April 2021, averting 15,196 (95% CrI: 14,798-15,591) infections if the disease had spread through Nunavut communities. Accelerated vaccination would have further reduced the total infections to 243 (95% CrI: 222-265) even in the absence of NPIs.ConclusionsNPIs have been essential in mitigating pandemic outbreaks in this large, geographically distanced and remote territory. While vaccination has the greatest impact to prevent infection and severe outcomes, public health implementation of NPIs play an essential role in the short term before attaining high levels of immunity in the population.
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Project description:Accurate and complete immunization data are necessary to assess vaccine coverage, safety and effectiveness. Across Canada, different methods and data sources are used to assess vaccine coverage, but these have not been systematically described. Our primary objective was to examine and describe the methods used to determine immunization coverage in Canada. The secondary objective was to compare routine infant and childhood coverage estimates derived from the Canadian 2013 Childhood National Immunization Coverage Survey (cNICS) with estimates collected from provinces and territories (P/Ts). We collected information from key informants regarding their provincial, territorial or federal methods for assessing immunization coverage. We also collected P/T coverage estimates for select antigens and birth cohorts to determine absolute differences between these and estimates from cNICS. Twenty-six individuals across 16 public health organizations participated between April and August 2015. Coverage surveys are conducted regularly for toddlers in Quebec and in one health authority in British Columbia. Across P/Ts, different methodologies for measuring coverage are used (e.g., valid doses, grace periods). Most P/Ts, except Ontario, measure up-to-date (UTD) coverage and 4 P/Ts also assess on-time coverage. The degree of concordance between P/T and cNICS coverage estimates varied by jurisdiction, antigen and age group. In addition to differences in the data sources and processes used for coverage assessment, there are also differences between Canadian P/Ts in the methods used for calculating immunization coverage. Comparisons between P/T and cNICS estimates leave remaining questions about the proportion of children fully vaccinated in Canada.
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