Associations of Stay-at-Home Order Enforcement on COVID-19 Population Outcomes: An Interstate Statistical Analysis.
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ABSTRACT: In the United States, Governors initially enacted COVID-19 mitigation policies with limited epidemiologic data. One prevailing legislative approach from March - May 2020, was the implementation of "stay-at-home" (SAH) executive orders. Although social distancing was encouraged, SAH orders varied between states, and the associations between potential legal prosecution and COVID-19 outcomes are currently unknown. Here, we provide empirical evidence on how executive enforcement of movement restrictions may influence population health during an infectious disease outbreak. A generalized linear model with negative binomial regression family compared COVID-19 outcomes in states with law-enforceable stay-at-home (eSAH) orders vs. those with unenforceable or no SAH orders (uSAH), controlling for demographics, socioeconomic influences, health comorbidities, and social distancing. COVID-19 incidence was less by 1.22 cases per day per capita in eSAH states compared to uSAH states (Coef.: -1.22; 95% CI: [-1.83, -0.61]; P < 0.001), and each subsequent day without an eSAH order was associated with a 0.03 incidence increase (Coef.: 0.03; 95% CI: [.03, .04]; P<0.001). Daily mortality was 1.96 less for eSAH states per capita (Coef.: -1.96; 95% CI: [-3.25, -0.68]; P=0.004). Our findings suggest allowing the enforcement of public health violations, compared to community education alone, is predicative of improved COVID-19 outcomes.
SUBMITTER: Huntley KS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8780467 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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