Dataset Information

Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population.

ABSTRACT: In a population with ongoing vaccination, the trajectory of a pandemic is determined by how the virus spreads in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals that exhibit distinct transmission dynamics based on different levels of natural and vaccine-induced immunity. We developed a mathematical model that considers both subpopulations and immunity parameters, including vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness, and a gradual loss of protection. The model forecasted the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in the US under varied transmission and vaccination rates. We further obtained the control reproduction number and conducted sensitivity analyses to determine how each parameter may affect virus transmission. Although our model has several limitations, the number of infected individuals was shown to be a magnitude greater (~10×) in the unvaccinated subpopulation compared to the vaccinated subpopulation. Our results show that a combination of strengthening vaccine-induced immunity and preventative behavioral measures like face mask-wearing and contact tracing will likely be required to deaccelerate the spread of infectious SARS-CoV-2 variants.

SUBMITTER: Avila-Ponce de Leon U

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8781299 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population.

Avila-Ponce de León Ugo U Avila-Vales Eric E Huang Kuanlin K

Viruses 20220116 1

In a population with ongoing vaccination, the trajectory of a pandemic is determined by how the virus spreads in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals that exhibit distinct transmission dynamics based on different levels of natural and vaccine-induced immunity. We developed a mathematical model that considers both subpopulations and immunity parameters, including vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness, and a gradual loss of protection. The model forecasted the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 delta ...[more]

PMID: 35062363

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundWe examined school reopening policies amidst rising transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals aged 12 years and older, with the goal of characterizing risk to students and teachers under various within-school non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) combined with specific vaccination coverage levels.MethodsWe developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 among a synthetic population, representative of Bay Area cities. We parameterized the model using community contact rates from vaccinated households ascertained from a household survey of Bay Area families with children conducted between February - April, 2021.Interventions and outcomesWe evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented in schools, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%). We quantified the added benefit of universal masking over masking among unvaccinated students and teachers, across varying levels of vaccine effectiveness (45%, 65%, 85%), and compared results between Delta and Alpha variant circulation.ResultsThe Delta variant sharply increases the risk of within-school COVID-transmission when compared to the Alpha variant. In our highest risk scenario (50% community and within-school vaccine coverage, no within-school NPIs, and predominant circulation of the Delta variant), we estimated that an elementary school could see 33-65 additional symptomatic cases of COVID-19 over a four-month semester (depending on the relative susceptibility of children <10 years). In contrast, under the Bay Area reopening plan (universal mask use, community and school vaccination coverage of 70%), we estimated excess symptomatic infection attributable to school reopening among 2.0-9.7% of elementary students (8-36 excess symptomatic cases per school over the semester), 3.0% of middle school students (13 cases per school) and 0.4% of high school students (3 cases per school). Excess rates among teachers attributable to reopening were similar. Achievement of lower risk tolerances, such as <5 excess infections per 1,000 students or teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the estimated excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 41%, respectively. We estimated that with 70% coverage of the eligible community and school population with a vaccine that is ≤65% effective, universal masking can avert more cases than masking of unvaccinated persons alone.ConclusionsAmidst circulation of the Delta variant, our findings demonstrated that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and universal masking. Vaccination of adult community members and teachers protects unvaccinated elementary and middle school children. Elementary and middle schools that can support additional interventions, such as cohorts and testing, should consider doing so, particularly if additional studies find that younger children are equally as susceptible as adults to the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.LimitationsWe did not consider the effect of social distancing in classrooms, or variation in testing frequency, and considerable uncertainty remains in key transmission parameters.

Project description:BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was first identified in the U.S. in March 2021 and has rapidly become the predominant lineage across the U.S. due to increased transmissibility, immune evasion and vaccine breakthrough. The aim of this study was to better understand the genetic diversity and the potential impact of mutations observed in SARS-CoV-2 viruses circulating in the U.S. in vaccinated individuals.ResultsWhole genome sequencing was performed on thirty-four SARS-CoV-2 positive samples using the Oxford Nanopore MinION. Evolutionary genomic analysis revealed two novel mutations, ORF1b:V2354F and a premature stop codon, ORF7a:Q94*, identified in a cluster of SARS-CoV-2 Delta isolates collected from vaccinated individuals in Colorado. The ORF1b:V2354F mutation, corresponding to NSP15:V303F, may induce a conformational change and result in a disruption to a flanking beta-sheet structure. The premature stop codon, ORF7a:Q94*, truncates the transmembrane protein and cytosolic tail used to mediate protein transport. This may affect protein localization to the ER-Golgi. In addition to these novel mutations, the cluster of vaccinated isolates contain an additional mutation in the spike protein, at position 112, compared to the Delta variant defining mutations. This mutation, S112L, exists in isolates previously obtained in the U.S. The S112L mutation substitutes a bulky hydrophobic side chain for a polar side chain, which results in a non-conservative substitution within the protein that may affect antibody-binding affinity. Additionally, the vaccinated cluster of isolates contains non-synonymous mutations within ORF8 and NSPs which further distinguish this cluster from the respective ancestral Delta variant.ConclusionsThese results show there is an emerging sub-lineage of the ancestral Delta variant circulating in the U.S. As mutations emerge in constellations, those with a potentially beneficial advantage to the virus may continue to circulate while others will cease.

Project description:The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 lineage (Delta variant) in 2021 was associated with increased case numbers and test positivity rates, including a large number of infections in fully vaccinated individuals. Here, we describe the findings of an investigation conducted in Tompkins County, New York, to evaluate factors underlying a significant uptick in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases observed in the months of July and August 2021. We performed genomic surveillance and genotyping as well as virological assessments to determine infectivity of the virus in a select number of clinical diagnostic samples. Genomic sequence analyses revealed complete replacement of the B.1.1.7 lineage (Alpha variant) with the B.1.617.2 lineage (Delta variant) between July 1 and August 4 2021. We observed a strong association between viral RNA loads detected by real-time reverse transcriptase PCR and infectious virus detected in respiratory secretions by virus titration. A marked increase in positive cases among fully vaccinated individuals was observed. The sequence divergence between two index Delta variant cases in April and May, and the cases after July 1st, revealed independent Delta variant introductions in Tompkins County. Contact tracing information enabled the detection of clusters of connected cases within closely related phylogenetic clusters. We also found evidence of transmission between vaccinated individuals and between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. This was confirmed by detection and isolation of infectious virus from a group of individuals within epidemiologically connected transmission clusters, confirming shedding of high viral loads and transmission of the virus by fully vaccinated individuals. IMPORTANCE The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.617.2 (Delta variant) emerged in Asia and rapidly spread to other countries, becoming the dominant circulating lineage. Worldwide infections with B.1.617.2 peaked at a time in which vaccination rates were increasing. In this study, we present data characterizing the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.617.2 (Delta variant) in Tompkins County, New York, which has one of the highest vaccination rates in the state. We present evidence demonstrating infection, replication, and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.617.2 (Delta variant) between fully vaccinated individuals. Importantly, infectious virus loads were determined in a subset of samples and demonstrated shedding of high viral titers in respiratory secretions of vaccinated individuals.

Project description:BackgroundThe extent to which vaccinated persons who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 contribute to transmission is unclear. During a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak among incarcerated persons with high vaccination rates in a federal prison, we assessed markers of viral shedding in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons.MethodsConsenting incarcerated persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection provided mid-turbinate nasal specimens daily for 10 consecutive days and reported symptom data via questionnaire. Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), viral whole genome sequencing, and viral culture was performed on these nasal specimens. Duration of RT-PCR positivity and viral culture positivity was assessed using survival analysis.ResultsA total of 957 specimens were provided by 93 participants, of whom 78 (84 %) were vaccinated and 17 (16 %) were unvaccinated. No significant differences were detected in duration of RT-PCR positivity among vaccinated participants (median: 13 days) versus those unvaccinated (median: 13 days; p = 0.50), or in duration of culture positivity (medians: 5 days and 5 days; p = 0.29). Among vaccinated participants, overall duration of culture positivity was shorter among Moderna vaccine recipients versus Pfizer (p = 0.048) or Janssen (p = 0.003) vaccine recipients. In post-hoc analyses, Moderna vaccine recipients demonstrated significantly shorter duration of culture positivity compared to unvaccinated participants (p = 0.02). When restricted to participants without reported prior infection, the difference between Moderna vaccine recipients and unvaccinated participants was more pronounced (medians: 3 days and 6 days, p = 0.002).ConclusionsInfectious periods for vaccinated and unvaccinated persons who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 are similar and can be highly variable, though some vaccinated persons are likely infectious for shorter durations. These findings are critically important, especially in congregate settings where viral transmission can lead to large outbreaks. In such settings, clinicians and public health practitioners should consider vaccinated, infected persons to be no less infectious than unvaccinated, infected persons.

Dataset Information

Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population.

Publications

Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets