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Novel Epidemic Metrics to Communicate Outbreak Risk at the Municipality Level: Dengue and Zika in the Dominican Republic.

ABSTRACT: Arboviruses remain a significant cause of morbidity, mortality and economic cost across the global human population. Epidemics of arboviral disease, such as Zika and dengue, also cause significant disruption to health services at local and national levels. This study examined 2014-2016 Zika and dengue epidemic data at the sub-national level to characterise transmission across the Dominican Republic. For each municipality, spatio-temporal mapping was used to characterise disease burden, while data were age and sex standardised to quantify burden distributions among the population. In separate analyses, time-ordered data were combined with the underlying disease migration interval distribution to produce a network of likely transmission chain events, displayed using transmission chain likelihood matrices. Finally, municipal-specific reproduction numbers (R_m) were established using a Wallinga-Teunis matrix. Dengue and Zika epidemics peaked during weeks 39-52 of 2015 and weeks 14-27 of 2016, respectively. At the provincial level, dengue attack rates were high in Hermanas Mirabal and San José de Ocoa (58.1 and 49.2 cases per 10,000 population, respectively), compared with the Zika burden, which was highest in Independencia and San José de Ocoa (21.2 and 13.4 cases per 10,000 population, respectively). Across municipalities, high disease burden was observed in Cotuí (622 dengue cases per 10,000 population) and Jimani (32 Zika cases per 10,000 population). Municipal infector-infectee transmission likelihood matrices identified seven 0% likelihood transmission events throughout the dengue epidemic and two 0% likelihood transmission events during the Zika epidemic. Municipality reproduction numbers (R_m) were consistently higher, and persisted for a greater duration, during the Zika epidemic (R_m = 1.0) than during the dengue epidemic (R_m < 1.0). This research highlights the importance of disease surveillance in land border municipalities as an early warning for infectious disease transmission. It also demonstrates that a high number of importation events are required to sustain transmission in endemic settings, and vice versa for newly emerged diseases. The inception of a novel epidemiological metric, R_m, reports transmission risk using standardised spatial units, and can be used to identify high transmission risk municipalities to better focus public health interventions for dengue, Zika and other infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Kingston R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8781936 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Since emerging in Saint Martin in 2013, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an alphavirus transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, has infected approximately two million individuals in the Americas, with over 500,000 reported cases in the Dominican Republic (DR). CHIKV-infected patients typically present with a febrile syndrome including polyarthritis/polyarthralgia, and a macropapular rash, similar to those infected with dengue and Zika viruses, and malaria. Nevertheless, many Dominican cases are unconfirmed due to the unavailability and high cost of laboratory testing and the absence of specific treatment for CHIKV infection. To obtain a more accurate representation of chikungunya fever (CHIKF) clinical signs and symptoms, and confirm the viral lineage responsible for the DR CHIKV outbreak, we tested 194 serum samples for CHIKV RNA and IgM antibodies from patients seen in a hospital in La Romana, DR using quantitative RT-PCR and IgM capture ELISA, and performed retrospective chart reviews. RNA and antibodies were detected in 49% and 24.7% of participants, respectively. Sequencing revealed that the CHIKV strain responsible for the La Romana outbreak belonged to the Asian/American lineage and grouped phylogenetically with recent Mexican and Trinidadian isolates. Our study shows that, while CHIKV-infected individuals were infrequently diagnosed with CHIKF, uninfected patients were never falsely diagnosed with CHIKF. Participants testing positive for CHIKV RNA were more likely to present with arthralgia, although it was reported in just 20.0% of CHIKF+ individuals. High percentages of respiratory (19.6%) signs and symptoms, especially among children, were noted, though it was not possible to determine whether individuals infected with CHIKV were co-infected with other pathogens. These results suggest that CHIKV may have been underdiagnosed during this outbreak, and that CHIKF should be included in differential diagnoses of diverse undifferentiated febrile syndromes in the Americas.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Zika remains an epidemiological threat in Latin America, including the Dominican Republic. Although transmitted by the same mosquito as Dengue and Chikungunya, Zika is unique in the potentially harmful consequences for babies born to women infected during pregnancy. Experts highlight the feminization of Zika, in terms of burden of disease and women's caregiving responsibilities. Understanding gender's role in Zika prevention, therefore, is key to strengthening current and future programs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:This qualitative study, comprised of 12 focus group discussions and eight in-depth interviews, explored gender's role in Zika among pregnant and non-pregnant women as well as male partners of pregnant women in the Dominican Republic. Topics included perceptions about Zika and perceived feasibility and effectiveness of prevention behaviors (e.g. cleaning water storage containers, using condoms during pregnancy). Researchers applied grounded theory through a process of deductive coding-classifying data around predetermined categories-followed by inductive coding-identifying themes that emerged from coded data. Study findings uncovered three ways in which gender may influence Zika prevention. First, women are largely responsible for household chores-including cleaning water storage containers-with men as assistants. Second, men described their role in the family as the protector. Finally, men and women believed that partners would perceive suggesting condom use or abstinence during pregnancy as a sign of infidelity. CONCLUSIONS:Current/future Zika programs should address knowledge gaps, especially around water storage cleaning techniques and sexual transmission. Programs should also integrate gender into programming in culturally-relevant ways that avoid reinforcing stereotypes. Furthermore, programs should tailor activities for men, women, as well as the couple. In the end, integrating gender in a way that is mindful of the local context while not exploiting existing gender roles is critical for preventing Zika and similar mosquito-borne diseases, both in the Dominican Republic and throughout the region.

Project description:BackgroundIn the Dominican Republic, a recent outbreak of malaria in the capital, Santo Domingo, threatens efforts to eliminate the disease. Mass drug administration (MDA) has been proposed as one strategy to reduce transmission. The success of MDA is contingent upon high levels of acceptance among the target population. To inform the design of future MDA campaigns, this rapid ethnographic assessment examined malaria-related knowledge and attitudes toward malaria MDA among residents of a transmission focus in Santo Domingo.MethodsIn October 2019, a rapid ethnographic assessment was conducted in the Los Tres Brazos transmission focus, which had not previously received MDA. National malaria programme staff conducted 61 structured interviews with key informants, recorded observations, and held 72 informal conversations. Using a grounded theory approach, data were analysed during three workshop sessions with research team members.ResultsAmong those who had heard of malaria in the structured interviews (n = 39/61; 64%), understanding of the disease was largely based on personal experience from past outbreaks or through word-of-mouth. Community health workers (promotores) were trusted for health information and malaria diagnosis more so than professional clinicians. No participant (0%) was familiar with malaria MDA. After learning about MDA, almost all study participants (92%) said that they would participate, seeing it as a way to care for their community. Reasons for not participating in future MDA included not trusting drug administrators, feeling reluctant to take unprescribed medicine, and fear of missing work. Additional identified challenges to MDA included reaching specific demographic groups, disseminating effective MDA campaign messages, and managing misinformation and political influence.ConclusionResidents appear accepting of MDA despite a lack of prior familiarity. Successful MDA will depend on several factors: fostering relationships among community-based health workers, clinicians, community leaders, and others; developing clear health messages that use local terms and spreading them through a variety of media and social networks; and contextualizing MDA as part of a broader effort to promote community health.

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Novel Epidemic Metrics to Communicate Outbreak Risk at the Municipality Level: Dengue and Zika in the Dominican Republic.

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