Current forecast of COVID-19 in Mexico: A Bayesian and machine learning approaches.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Prieto K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8782335 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:COVID-19 is the disease evoked by a new breed of coronavirus called the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Recently, COVID-19 has become a pandemic by infecting more than 152 million people in over 216 countries and territories. The exponential increase in the number of infections has rendered traditional diagnosis techniques inefficient. Therefore, many researchers have developed several intelligent techniques, such as deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML), which can assist the healthcare sector in providing quick and precise COVID-19 diagnosis. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the most recent DL and ML techniques for COVID-19 diagnosis. The studies are published from December 2019 until April 2021. In general, this paper includes more than 200 studies that have been carefully selected from several publishers, such as IEEE, Springer and Elsevier. We classify the research tracks into two categories: DL and ML and present COVID-19 public datasets established and extracted from different countries. The measures used to evaluate diagnosis methods are comparatively analysed and proper discussion is provided. In conclusion, for COVID-19 diagnosing and outbreak prediction, SVM is the most widely used machine learning mechanism, and CNN is the most widely used deep learning mechanism. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity are the most widely used measurements in previous studies. Finally, this review paper will guide the research community on the upcoming development of machine learning for COVID-19 and inspire their works for future development. This review paper will guide the research community on the upcoming development of ML and DL for COVID-19 and inspire their works for future development.
| S-EPMC8420483 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Technology advancements have a rapid effect on every field of life, be it medical field or any other field. Artificial intelligence has shown the promising results in health care through its decision making by analysing the data. COVID-19 has affected more than 100 countries in a matter of no time. People all over the world are vulnerable to its consequences in future. It is imperative to develop a control system that will detect the coronavirus. One of the solution to control the current havoc can be the diagnosis of disease with the help of various AI tools. In this paper, we classified textual clinical reports into four classes by using classical and ensemble machine learning algorithms. Feature engineering was performed using techniques like Term frequency/inverse document frequency (TF/IDF), Bag of words (BOW) and report length. These features were supplied to traditional and ensemble machine learning classifiers. Logistic regression and Multinomial Naïve Bayes showed better results than other ML algorithms by having 96.2% testing accuracy. In future recurrent neural network can be used for better accuracy.
| S-EPMC7325639 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We present two machine learning approaches for drug repurposing. While we have developed them for COVID-19, they are disease-agnostic. The two methodologies are complementary, targeting SARS-CoV-2 and host factors, respectively. Our first approach consists of a matrix factorization algorithm to rank broad-spectrum antivirals. Our second approach, based on network medicine, uses graph kernels to rank drugs according to the perturbation they induce on a subnetwork of the human interactome that is crucial for SARS-CoV-2 infection/replication. Our experiments show that our top predicted broad-spectrum antivirals include drugs indicated for compassionate use in COVID-19 patients; and that the ranking obtained by our kernel-based approach aligns with experimental data. Finally, we present the COVID-19 repositioning explorer (CoREx), an interactive online tool to explore the interplay between drugs and SARS-CoV-2 host proteins in the context of biological networks, protein function, drug clinical use, and Connectivity Map. CoREx is freely available at: https://paccanarolab.org/corex/.
| S-EPMC8576113 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The existence of widespread COVID-19 infections has prompted worldwide efforts to control and manage the virus, and hopefully curb it completely. One important line of research is the use of machine learning (ML) to understand and fight COVID-19. This is currently an active research field. Although there are already many surveys in the literature, there is a need to keep up with the rapidly growing number of publications on COVID-19-related applications of ML. This paper presents a review of recent reports on ML algorithms used in relation to COVID-19. We focus on the potential of ML for two main applications: diagnosis of COVID-19 and prediction of mortality risk and severity, using readily available clinical and laboratory data. Aspects related to algorithm types, training data sets, and feature selection are discussed. As we cover work published between January 2020 and January 2021, a few key points have come to light. The bulk of the machine learning algorithms used in these two applications are supervised learning algorithms. The established models are yet to be used in real-world implementations, and much of the associated research is experimental. The diagnostic and prognostic features discovered by ML models are consistent with results presented in the medical literature. A limitation of the existing applications is the use of imbalanced data sets that are prone to selection bias.
| S-EPMC8018906 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundForecasting the time of forthcoming pandemic reduces the impact of diseases by taking precautionary steps such as public health messaging and raising the consciousness of doctors. With the continuous and rapid increase in the cumulative incidence of COVID-19, statistical and outbreak prediction models including various machine learning (ML) models are being used by the research community to track and predict the trend of the epidemic, and also in developing appropriate strategies to combat and manage its spread.MethodsIn this paper, we present a comparative analysis of various ML approaches including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbor and Artificial Neural Network in predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in the epidemiological domain. We first apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to identify and model the short and long-run relationships of the time-series COVID-19 datasets. That is, we determine the lags between a response variable and its respective explanatory time series variables as independent variables. Then, the resulting significant variables concerning their lags are used in the regression model selected by the ARDL for predicting and forecasting the trend of the epidemic.ResultsStatistical measures-Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE)-are used for model accuracy. The values of MAPE for the best-selected models for confirmed, recovered and deaths cases are 0.003, 0.006 and 0.115, respectively, which falls under the category of highly accurate forecasts. In addition, we computed 15 days ahead forecast for the daily deaths, recovered, and confirm patients and the cases fluctuated across time in all aspects. Besides, the results reveal the advantages of ML algorithms for supporting the decision-making of evolving short-term policies.
| S-EPMC8725668 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people worldwide. As our understanding of the disease is evolving, our approach to the patient management is also changing swiftly. Available new evidence is helping us take radical decisions in COVID-19 management. We searched for inclusion of the published literature on treatment of COVID-19 from around the globe. All relevant evidences available till the time of submission of this article were briefly discussed. Once advised as blanket therapy for all patients, recent reports of hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin indicated no potential benefit and use of such combination may increase the risk of arrhythmias. Clinical evidence with newer antivirals such as remdesivir and favipiravir is promising that can hasten the patient recovery and reduce the mortality. With steroids, evidence is much clear in that it should be used in low dose and for short period not extending beyond 7 days in moderate to severe hospitalized patients. Low-molecular-weight heparin should be initiated in all hospitalized COVID-19 patients and dose should be based on the coagulation profile and risk of thromboembolism. Immunomodulatory drugs such tocilizumab may be considered for severe and critically ill patients to improve the outcomes. Though ulinastatin can be a potential alternative immunomodulator, there is lack of clinical evidence on its usage in COVID-19. Convalescent plasma therapy can be potentially lifesaving in critically ill patients. However, there is need to generate further evidence with various such therapies. Though availability of a potent vaccine is awaited, current treatment of COVID-19 is based on available therapies, which is guided by the evidence. In this review, we discuss the potential treatments available around the globe with current evidence on each of such treatments. How to cite this article: Dixit SB, Zirpe KG, Kulkarni AP, Chaudhry D, Govil D, Mehta Y, et al. Current Approaches to COVID-19: Therapy and Prevention. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(9):838-846.
| S-EPMC7584839 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo assess the prognostic value of serum TSH in Greek patients with COVID-19 and compare it with that of commonly used prognostic biomarkers.MethodsRetrospective study of 128 COVID-19 in patients with no history of thyroid disease. Serum TSH, albumin, CRP, ferritin, and D-dimers were measured at admission. Outcomes were classified as "favorable" (discharge from hospital) and "adverse" (intubation or in-hospital death of any cause). The prognostic performance of TSH and other indices was assessed using binary logistic regression, machine learning classifiers, and ROC curve analysis.ResultsPatients with adverse outcomes had significantly lower TSH compared to those with favorable outcomes (0.61 versus 1.09 mIU/L, p < 0.001). Binary logistic regression with sex, age, TSH, albumin, CRP, ferritin, and D-dimers as covariates showed that only albumin (p < 0.001) and TSH (p = 0.006) were significantly predictive of the outcome. Serum TSH below the optimal cut-off value of 0.5 mIU/L was associated with an odds ratio of 4.13 (95% C.I.: 1.41-12.05) for adverse outcome. Artificial neural network analysis showed that the prognostic importance of TSH was second only to that of albumin. However, the prognostic accuracy of low TSH was limited, with an AUC of 69.5%, compared to albumin's 86.9%. A Naïve Bayes classifier based on the combination of serum albumin and TSH levels achieved high prognostic accuracy (AUC 99.2%).ConclusionLow serum TSH is independently associated with adverse outcome in hospitalized Greek patients with COVID-19 but its prognostic utility is limited. The integration of serum TSH into machine learning classifiers in combination with other biomarkers enables outcome prediction with high accuracy.
| S-EPMC9707250 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Predictions of COVID-19 case growth and mortality are critical to the decisions of political leaders, businesses, and individuals grappling with the pandemic. This predictive task is challenging due to the novelty of the virus, limited data, and dynamic political and societal responses. We embed a Bayesian time series model and a random forest algorithm within an epidemiological compartmental model for empirically grounded COVID-19 predictions. The Bayesian case model fits a location-specific curve to the velocity (first derivative) of the log transformed cumulative case count, borrowing strength across geographic locations and incorporating prior information to obtain a posterior distribution for case trajectories. The compartmental model uses this distribution and predicts deaths using a random forest algorithm trained on COVID-19 data and population-level characteristics, yielding daily projections and interval estimates for cases and deaths in U.S. states. We evaluated the model by training it on progressively longer periods of the pandemic and computing its predictive accuracy over 21-day forecasts. The substantial variation in predicted trajectories and associated uncertainty between states is illustrated by comparing three unique locations: New York, Colorado, and West Virginia. The sophistication and accuracy of this COVID-19 model offer reliable predictions and uncertainty estimates for the current trajectory of the pandemic in the U.S. and provide a platform for future predictions as shifting political and societal responses alter its course.
| S-EPMC8031749 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 has globally spread to over 4 million people and the epidemic situation in Japan is very serious. The purpose of this research was to assess the risk of COVID-19 epidemic dissemination in Japan by estimating the current state of epidemic dissemination and providing some epidemic prevention and control recommendations. Firstly, the period from 6 January to 31 March 2020 was divided into four stages and the relevant parameters were estimated according to the imported cases in Japan. The basic reproduction number of the current stage is 1.954 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.851-2.025), which means COVID-19 will spread quickly, and the self-healing rate of Japanese is about 0.495 (95% CI 0.437-0.506), with small variations in the four stages. Secondly, the results were applied to the actual reported cases from 1 to 5 April 2020, verifying the reliability of the estimated data using the accumulated reported cases located within the 95% confidence interval and the relative error of forecast data of five days being less than 2 . 5 % . Thirdly, considering the medical resources in Japan, the times the epidemic beds and ventilators become fully occupied are predicted as 5 and 15 May 2020, respectively. Keeping with the current situation, the final death toll in Japan may reach into the millions. Finally, based on experience with COVID-19 prevention and control in China, robust measures such as nationwide shutdown, store closures, citizens isolating themselves at home, and increasing PCR testing would quickly and effectively prevent COVID-19 spread.
| S-EPMC7312241 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The current COVID-19 pandemic threatens human life, health, and productivity. AI plays an essential role in COVID-19 case classification as we can apply machine learning models on COVID-19 case data to predict infectious cases and recovery rates using chest x-ray. Accessing patient's private data violates patient privacy and traditional machine learning model requires accessing or transferring whole data to train the model. In recent years, there has been increasing interest in federated machine learning, as it provides an effective solution for data privacy, centralized computation, and high computation power. In this paper, we studied the efficacy of federated learning versus traditional learning by developing two machine learning models (a federated learning model and a traditional machine learning model)using Keras and TensorFlow federated, we used a descriptive dataset and chest x-ray (CXR) images from COVID-19 patients. During the model training stage, we tried to identify which factors affect model prediction accuracy and loss like activation function, model optimizer, learning rate, number of rounds, and data Size, we kept recording and plotting the model loss and prediction accuracy per each training round, to identify which factors affect the model performance, and we found that softmax activation function and SGD optimizer give better prediction accuracy and loss, changing the number of rounds and learning rate has slightly effect on model prediction accuracy and prediction loss but increasing the data size did not have any effect on model prediction accuracy and prediction loss. finally, we build a comparison between the proposed models' loss, accuracy, and performance speed, the results demonstrate that the federated machine learning model has a better prediction accuracy and loss but higher performance time than the traditional machine learning model.
| S-EPMC8186799 | biostudies-literature