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The First Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreak in Thailand (2021): Epidemiological Features and Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

ABSTRACT: The first outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in Thailand was reported in March 2021, but information on the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak is very limited. The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemiological features of LSD outbreaks and to identify the outbreak spatio-temporal clusters. The LSD-affected farms located in Roi Et province were investigated by veterinary authorities under the outbreak response program. A designed questionnaire was used to obtain the data. Space-time permutation (STP) and Poisson space-time (Poisson ST) models were used to detect areas of high LSD incidence. The authorities identified 293 LSD outbreak farms located in four different districts during the period of March and the first week of April 2021. The overall morbidity and mortality of the affected cattle were 40.5 and 1.2%, respectively. The STP defined seven statistically significant clusters whereas only one cluster was identified by the Poisson ST model. Most of the clusters (n = 6) from the STP had a radius <7 km, and the number of LSD cases in those clusters varied in range of 3-51. On the other hand, the most likely cluster from the Poisson ST included LSD cases (n = 361) from 198 cattle farms with a radius of 17.07 km. This is the first report to provide an epidemiological overview and determine spatio-temporal clusters of the first LSD outbreak in cattle farms in Thailand. The findings from this study may serve as a baseline information for future epidemiological studies and support authorities to establish effective control programs for LSD in Thailand.

SUBMITTER: Arjkumpa O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8782428 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIn June 2014, Suriname faced the first Chikungunya outbreak. Since international reports mostly focus on hospitalized patients, the least affected group, a study was conducted to describe clinical characteristics of mainly outpatients including children. In addition, the cumulative incidence of this first epidemic was investigated.MethodologyDuring August and September 2014, clinically suspected Chikungunya cases were included in a prospective follow-up study. Blood specimens were collected and tested for viral RNA presence. Detailed clinical information was gathered through multiple telephone surveys until day 180. In addition, a three stage household-based cluster with a cross-sectional design was conducted in October, December 2014 and March 2015 to assess the cumulative incidence.Principal findingsSixty-eight percent of symptomatic patients tested positive for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Arthralgia and pain in the fingers were distinctive for viremic CHIKV infected patients. Viremic CHIKV infected children (?12 years) characteristically displayed headache and vomiting, while arthralgia was less common at onset. The disease was cleared within seven days by 20% of the patients, while 22% of the viremic CHIKV infected patients, mostly women and elderly reported persistent arthralgia at day 180. The extrapolated cumulative CHIKV incidence in Paramaribo was 249 cases per 1000 persons, based on CHIKV self-reported cases in 53.1% of the households and 90.4% IgG detected in a subset of self-reported CHIKV+ persons. CHIKV peaked in the dry season and a drastic decrease in CHIKV patients coincided with a governmental campaign to reduce mosquito breeding sites.Conclusions/significanceThis study revealed that persistent arthralgia was a concern, but occurred less frequently in an outpatient setting. The data support a less severe pathological outcome for Caribbean CHIKV infections. This study augments incidence data available for first outbreaks in the region and showed that actions undertaken at the national level to mount responses may have positively impacted containment of this CHIKV outbreak.

Project description:BackgroundLumpy skin disease (LSD) is an important viral disease causing significant economic losses in commercial livestock production. In mid-2019, an outbreak of LSD has been reported in cattle population from different parts of Bangladesh including Chattogram division. A cross-sectional surveillance study was undertaken from August 2019 to December 2019 to investigate the prevalence and associated risk factors of LSD in cattle in Chattogram district.MethodsA total of 3,327 cattle from 19 commercial farms were examined for the LSD specific skin lesions and associated risk factors. A total of 120 skin biopsies were collected from the suspected animal for the confirmation of the disease using molecular detection and histopathological examination. Partial genome sequencing and phylogenetic analyses were performed on selected viral isolates.ResultsThe overall clinical prevalence of LSD in the study population was 10% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.4%-11%) where the highest farm level outbreak frequency was 63.33% (95% CI: 45.51%-78.13%) and the lowest 4.22% (95% CI: 3.39%-5.25%). Crossbred and female cattle showed a significantly higher prevalence of the disease compared to their counterparts. Introduction of new animals in farms was found to be one of the most significant risk factors in the transmission of the disease. All suspected skin biopsies were positive for LSD virus (LSDV) infection with granulomatous and pyogranulomatous dermatitis was revealed on histopathology. Phylogenetic analysis based on the inverted terminal repeat region of the LSDV gene suggested that the locally circulating strain was closely related to the strains isolated from the Middle East and North African countries.ConclusionsThe data generated in this study would be beneficial to the field veterinarians and animal health decision makers in the country as well as it will aid in taking appropriate measures to prevent further relapse or outbreak of this disease in future.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a devastating transboundary viral disease of cattle which causes significant loss in production. Although this disease has been reported in Uganda and throughout East Africa, there is almost no information about its epidemiology, spatial or spatio-temporal distribution. We carried out a retrospective study on the epidemiology of LSD in Uganda between the years 2002 and 2016, using data on reported outbreaks collected monthly by the central government veterinary administration. Descriptive statistics were computed on frequency of outbreaks, number of cases, vaccinations and deaths. We evaluated differences in the number of reported outbreaks across different regions (agro-ecological zones), districts, months and years. Spatial, temporal and space-time scan statistics were used to identify possible epidemiological clusters of LSD outbreaks. RESULTS:A total of 1161 outbreaks and 319,355 cases of LSD were reported from 55 out of 56 districts of Uganda. There was a significant difference in incidence between years (P?=?0.007) and across different regions. However, there was no significant difference in the number of outbreaks per month (P?=?0.443). The Central region reported the highest number of outbreaks (n?=?418, 36%) followed by Eastern (n?=?372, 32%), Southwestern (n?=?140, 12%), Northern (n?=?131, 11%), Northeastern (n?=?37, 3%), Western (n?=?41, 4%) and Northwestern (n?=?22, 2%) regions. Several endemic hotspots for the circulation of LSD were identified in the Central and Eastern regions using spatial cluster analyses. Outbreaks in endemic hotspots were less seasonal and had strikingly lower mortality and case-fatality rates than the other regions, suggesting an underlying difference in the epidemiology and impact of LSD in these different zones. CONCLUSION:Lumpy Skin disease is endemic in Uganda, with outbreaks occurring annually in all regions of the country. We identified potential spatial hotspots for LSD outbreaks, underlining the need for risk-based surveillance to establish the actual disease prevalence and risk factors for disease maintenance. Space-time analysis revealed that sporadic LSD outbreaks tend to occur both within and outside of endemic areas. The findings from this study will be used as a baseline for further epidemiological studies for the development of sustainable programmes towards the control of LSD in Uganda.

Project description:Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle that can have severe economic implications. New LSD outbreaks are currently circulating in the Middle East (ME). Since 2012, severe outbreaks were reported in cattle across the region. Characterizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of LSDV in cattle populations is prerequisite for guiding successful surveillance and control efforts at a regional level in the ME. Here, we aim to model the ecological niche of LSDV and identify epidemic progression patterns over the course of the epidemic. We analyzed publically available outbreak data from the ME for the period 2012-2015 using presence-only maximum entropy ecological niche modeling and the time-dependent method for the estimation of the effective reproductive number (R-TD). High-risk areas (probability >0.60) for LSDV identified by ecological niche modeling included parts of many northeastern ME countries, though Israel and Turkey were estimated to be the most suitable locations for occurrence of LSDV outbreaks. The most important environmental predictors that contributed to the ecological niche of LSDV included annual precipitation, land cover, mean diurnal range, type of livestock production system, and global livestock densities. Average monthly effective R-TD was equal to 2.2 (95% CI: 1.2, 3.5), whereas the largest R-TD was estimated in Israel (R-TD?=?22.2, 95 CI: 15.2, 31.5) in September 2013, which indicated that the demographic and environmental conditions during this period were suitable to LSDV super-spreading events. The sharp drop of Isreal's inferred R-TD in the following month reflected the success of their 2013 vaccination campaign in controlling the disease. Our results identified areas in which underreporting of LSDV outbreaks may have occurred. More epidemiological information related to cattle populations are needed to further improve the inferred spatial and temporal characteristics of currently circulating LSDV. However, the methodology presented here may be useful in guiding the design of risk-based surveillance and control programs in the region as well as aid in the formulation of epidemic preparedness plans in neighboring LSDV-free countries.

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The First Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreak in Thailand (2021): Epidemiological Features and Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

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