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Construction of a risk assessment model of cardiovascular disease in a rural Chinese hypertensive population based on lasso-Cox analysis.

ABSTRACT: Many assessments have been used to predict cardiovascular risks in the general population, but their applicability in patients with hypertension needs to be further evaluated. In the current study, a cardiovascular risk assessment model was constructed in a hypertensive population. This prospective cohort study was conducted with cardiovascular examinations in rural northeast China in 2012 and 2013, and followed up to collect cardiovascular events in 2015 and 2018. Data were derived from 4763 hypertensive patients who were free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline and completed follow-up. After lasso regression was used to screen for risk factors of CVD at baseline, a multivariate Cox regression risk model was established and a nomogram was developed. The model was validated using an independent test set (one third of data not used for model building). Among 4763 patients, 354 (7.43%) had a cardiovascular event during a median follow-up of 4.66 years. Nine risk factors were screened by lasso regression, including sex, age, current smoking, body mass index (BMI), history of transient ischemic attack (TIA), family history of hypertension, family history of stroke, physical labor intensity, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). The c-index of the CVD model was 0.707, and that of an updated model with baseline blood pressure was 0.732. In the validated cohort the respective c-indexes were 0.665 and 0.714. An assessment model of CVD risk was established in a hypertensive population which may provide an original prevention strategy for hypertensive populations in rural China, and further reduce the CVD burden.

SUBMITTER: Ouyang N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8783342 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceLittle is known about the relationship between the metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) and the prognosis of hypertensive patients in China.ObjectiveTo investigate the association between the novel non-insulin-based METS-IR index and the cardiovascular composite endpoints and all-cause mortality in Chinese hypertensive participants.Design setting and participantsThis cohort study used data from the China H-Type Hypertension Project, a long-term prospective cohort consisting of 14234 hypertensive patients in southern China, with a baseline from March to August 2018. The median follow-up period for participants was 3.94 years, as of 2022. The data analysis period is from July 2023 to September 2023.ExposuresMETS-IR index of participants in the Chinese H-type hypertension project. The calculation formula for METS-IR is (Ln (2 × FPG) +TG) × BMI/Ln (HDL-C).Main outcomes and measuresCardiovascular events and cardiovascular, all-cause mortality were identified by linking the cohort database with the health care system through October, 2023.ResultsA total of 14220 participants were included in this study. The prevalence rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD), cardiovascular death, and all-cause death were 2.59% (369/14220), 2.79% (397/14220), and 5.66% (805/14220), respectively. After adjusting for confounding factors in the multivariate logistic regression analysis models, the METS-IR index was significantly positively correlated with CVD, and cardiovascular, all-cause mortality, whether as a categorical or continuous variable. Layered analysis showed that the METS-IR index of hypertensive participants in different subgroups was positively correlated with the endpoint event.Conclusions and relevanceThis large, prospective cohort study demonstrated that the METS-IR index, a new IR evaluation index, were independently associated with a higher risk of the cardiovascular composite endpoint and all-cause mortality among Chinese hypertensive population. Importantly, our finding provides an independent indicator for evaluating the prognosis of hypertensive patients.

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Construction of a risk assessment model of cardiovascular disease in a rural Chinese hypertensive population based on lasso-Cox analysis.

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