Nomogram predicting cesarean delivery undergoing induction of labor among high-risk nulliparous women at term: a retrospective study.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Our aim was to create and validate a nomogram predicting cesarean delivery after induction of labor among nulliparous women at term.Methods
Data were obtained from medical records from Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital. Nulliparous women with singleton pregnancies undergoing induction of labor at term were involved. A total of 2950 patients from Jan. 2014 to Dec. 2015 were served as derivation cohort. A nomogram was constructed by multivariate logistic regression using maternal, fetal and pregnancy characteristics. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were internal validated by 1000-bootstrap resampling, followed by external validation of a new dataset from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2016.Results
Logistic regression revealed nine predictors of cesarean delivery, including maternal height, age, uterine height, abdominal circumference, estimated fetal weight, indications for induction of labor, initial cervical consistency, cervical effacement and station. Nomogram was well calibrated and had an AUC of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.75) after bootstrap resampling for internal validation. The AUC in external validation reached 0.67, which was significantly higher than that of three models published previously (P<0.05).Conclusions
This validated nomogram, constructed by variables that were obtained form medical records, can help estimate risk of cesarean delivery before induction of labor.
SUBMITTER: Zhou H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8783481 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BACKGROUND:The perinatal and maternal consequences of induction of labor at 39 weeks among low-risk nulliparous women are uncertain. METHODS:In this multicenter trial, we randomly assigned low-risk nulliparous women who were at 38 weeks 0 days to 38 weeks 6 days of gestation to labor induction at 39 weeks 0 days to 39 weeks 4 days or to expectant management. The primary outcome was a composite of perinatal death or severe neonatal complications; the principal secondary outcome was cesarean delivery. RESULTS:A total of 3062 women were assigned to labor induction, and 3044 were assigned to expectant management. The primary outcome occurred in 4.3% of neonates in the induction group and in 5.4% in the expectant-management group (relative risk, 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 1.00). The frequency of cesarean delivery was significantly lower in the induction group than in the expectant-management group (18.6% vs. 22.2%; relative risk, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.93). CONCLUSIONS:Induction of labor at 39 weeks in low-risk nulliparous women did not result in a significantly lower frequency of a composite adverse perinatal outcome, but it did result in a significantly lower frequency of cesarean delivery. (Funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; ARRIVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01990612 .).
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Project description:Objective This study aimed to evaluate maternal and neonatal outcomes by method of cervical ripening for labor induction among low-risk nulliparous individuals.Study design This is a secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized trial of labor induction at 39 weeks versus expectant management in low-risk nulliparous participants. Participants undergoing cervical ripening for labor induction in either group were included. Participants were excluded for preripening membrane rupture, abruption, chorioamnionitis, fetal demise, or cervical dilation ≥3.5 cm. Cervical ripening was defined by the initial method used: prostaglandin only (PGE; referent), Foley with concurrent prostaglandin (Foley-PGE), Foley only (Foley), and Foley with concurrent oxytocin (Foley-oxytocin). Coprimary outcomes were adverse maternal and neonatal composites. Secondary outcomes included cesarean delivery and length of labor and delivery (L&D) stay. Multivariable analysis was used to adjust for patient characteristics.Results Of 6,106 participants included in the trial, 2,376 (38.9%) met criteria for this analysis. Of these, 1,247 (52.4%) had cervical ripening with PGE, 290 (12.2%) had Foley-PGE, 385 (16.2%) had Foley, and 454 (19.1%) had Foley-oxytocin. The maternal composite outcome was similar among participants who received Foley-PGE (24.1%, adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-1.52), Foley (21.3%, aRR = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.92-1.45), or Foley-oxytocin (19.4%, aRR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.83-1.29), compared with PGE (19.7%). The neonatal composite outcome was less frequent in participants who received the Foley-PGE (2.4%, aRR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.16-0.75) or Foley (3.6%, aRR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.29-0.89) but did not reach statistical significance for participants who received Foley-oxytocin (4.6%, aRR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.40-1.01) compared with PGE only (6.8%). Participants who received Foley-PGE or Foley-oxytocin had a shorter L&D stay (adjusted mean difference = -1.97 hours, 95% CI: -3.45 to -0.49 and -5.92 hours, 95% CI: -7.07 to -4.77, respectively), compared with PGE.Conclusion In term low-risk nulliparous participants, Foley alone or concurrent with PGE is associated with a lower risk of adverse neonatal outcomes than with PGE alone. Length of L&D stay was the shortest with concurrent Foley-oxytocin.Key points· Adverse maternal outcomes are similar among different methods of cervical ripening in low-risk women.. · Adverse neonatal outcomes are less frequent with use of Foley alone or in combination with PGE.. · The use of Foley alone, or in combination with other agents, appears to be beneficial..
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Project description:ObjectiveTo determine whether patient-perceived pressure from clinicians for labor induction or cesarean delivery is significantly associated with having these procedures.Data sources/study settingListening to Mothers III, a nationally representative survey of women 18-45 years who delivered a singleton infant in a U.S. hospital July 2011-June 2012 (N = 2,400).Study designMultivariate logistic regression analysis of factors associated with perceived pressure and estimation of odds of induction and cesarean given perceived pressure.Principal findingsOverall, 14.8 percent of respondents perceived pressure from a clinician for labor induction and 13.3 percent for cesarean delivery. Women who perceived pressure for labor induction had higher odds of induction overall (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.51; 95 percent confidence interval [CI]: 2.5-5.0) and without medical reason (aOR: 2.13; 95 percent CI: 1.3-3.4) compared with women who did not perceive pressure. Those perceiving pressure for cesarean delivery had higher odds of cesarean overall (aOR: 5.17; 95 percent CI: 3.2-8.4), without medical reason (aOR: 6.13; 95 percent CI: 3.4-11.1), and unplanned cesarean (aOR: 6.70; 95 percent CI: 4.0-11.3).ConclusionsPatient-perceived pressure from clinicians significantly predicts labor induction and cesarean delivery. Efforts to reduce provider-patient miscommunication and minimize potentially unnecessary procedures may be warranted.
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Project description:ObjectiveTo develop models to predict vaginal delivery in low-risk, nulliparous women contemplating elective induction of labor or expectant management at 39 weeks of gestation.MethodsWe conducted a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial of planned elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation compared with expectant management for low-risk nulliparous women. Two groups were included for this analysis: 1) women who were randomized to the induction of labor group and underwent elective induction at 39 0/7-39 4/7 weeks of gestation and 2) women who were randomized to the expectant management group who experienced spontaneous labor or medically indicated delivery (including postterm). Multivariable logistic regression models were developed for each group using patient characteristics that would be available at the time of counseling. Model selection was based on k-fold cross-validation using backward elimination and variables that remained significant at P<.05 were retained. To compare estimated with observed rates, the elective induction of labor model was then applied to each woman in both groups to estimate individualized predicted probabilities of vaginal delivery with elective induction of labor.ResultsOf 6,106 women enrolled in the trial, 4,661 met criteria for this analysis. Vaginal delivery occurred in 80.6% of the 2,153 women in the elective induction of labor group and 77.2% of the 2,508 women in the expectant management group (P=.005). The final elective induction of labor model included age, height, weight, and modified Bishop score (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.72, 95% CI 0.70-0.75). The same variables were included in the final expectant management model (AUROC 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72). Across the range of predicted probability deciles derived from the elective induction of labor model, almost all women who underwent elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation had a higher observed chance of vaginal delivery than expectant management.ConclusionIrrespective of the individual predicted chance of vaginal delivery from elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation, vaginal delivery is generally more frequent if elective induction of labor is undertaken rather than expectant management. These data can be used to counsel nulliparous women regarding their "customized" chances of vaginal delivery as they choose between elective induction of labor or expectant management at 39 weeks of gestation.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01990612.
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Project description:OBJECTIVE:Uterine rupture is a well-known but unusual complication in vaginal deliveries with a Cesarean section in the history. The risk of uterine rupture is at least two-fold when labor is induced. In Sweden, women are allowed to deliver vaginally after one previous Cesarean section, regardless if labor starts spontaneously or is induced. The aim of the study is to compare the proportion of uterine ruptures between the three methods (balloon catheter, Minprostin® and Cytotec®) for induction of labor in women with an unfavorable cervix and one previous Cesarean section. MATERIAL AND METHODS:Retrospective cohort study of all women with one previous Cesarean section and induction of labor with an unfavorable cervix at the four largest clinics in Stockholm during 2012-2015. Inclusion criteria: Women with a previous Cesarean section and induction of labor with a viable fetus, cephalic presentation, singleton, at ?34 w, (n = 910). RESULTS:3.0% (27/910) of the women with induction of labor had a uterine rupture, 91% of them had no previous vaginal delivery. The proportion of uterine ruptures was 2.0% (6/295) with orally administrated Cytotec®, 2.1% (7/335) with balloon catheter and 5.0% (14/ 281) when Minprostin® was used. CONCLUSIONS:No difference in the proportion of uterine ruptures was shown when orally administrated Cytotec® and balloon catheter were compared (p = 0.64). Orally administrated Cytotec® and balloon catheter give a high success rate of vaginal deliveries (almost 70%) despite an unfavorable cervix.
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Project description:BackgroundObesity is increasing in Sweden and is also of huge global concern. Obesity increases the risk of complications during pregnancy and the need for the induction of labor. Induction of labor increases the number of complications during delivery, leading to women with more negative birth experience. This study investigated how maternal body mass index (BMI) during antenatal care enrollment affects labor outcomes (proportion of cesarean section at induction of labor).MethodThis was a retrospective cohort study of 3772 women with mixed parity and induction of labor at Soderhospital, Stockholm, in 2009-2010 and 2012-2013. The inclusion criteria were simplex, ≥34 gestational weeks, cephalic presentation and no previous cesarean section. The women were grouped according to BMI, and statistical analyzes were performed to compare the proportion of cesarean sections after induction of labor. The primary outcome was the proportion of cesarean section after induction of labor divided by group of maternal BMI. The secondary outcomes were postpartum hemorrhage >1000 ml, time of labor, fetal outcome data, and indication for emergency cesarean section.ResultThe induction of labor in women with a high BMI resulted in a significantly increased risk of cesarean section, with 18.4-24.1% of deliveries, depending on the BMI group. This outcome persisted after adjustment in women with BMI 25-29.9 (aOR 1.4; 95% CI; 1.1-1.7) and BMI 30-34.9 (aOR 1.5; 95% CI; 1.1-2.1). There was also a significantly higher risk for CS among primiparous women (aOR 3.6; 95% CI; 2.9-45) and if the newborn weighted ≥ four kilos (aOR 1.6; 95% CI; 1.3-2.0).ConclusionOur findings show that a higher BMI increased the risk of cesarean section after induction of labor in the groups with BMI 25-34.9. Parity seems to be the strongest risk factor for CS regardless other variables.
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