Dataset Information

The Heterogeneous Severity of COVID-19 in African Countries: A Modeling Approach.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on global health and economics. The impact in African countries has not been investigated thoroughly via fitting epidemic models to the reported COVID-19 deaths. We downloaded the data for the 12 most-affected countries with the highest cumulative COVID-19 deaths to estimate the time-varying basic reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) and infection attack rate. We develop a simple epidemic model and fitted it to reported COVID-19 deaths in 12 African countries using iterated filtering and allowing a flexible transmission rate. We observe high heterogeneity in the case-fatality rate across the countries, which may be due to different reporting or testing efforts. South Africa, Tunisia, and Libya were most affected, exhibiting a relatively higher [Formula: see text] and infection attack rate. Thus, to effectively control the spread of COVID-19 epidemics in Africa, there is a need to consider other mitigation strategies (such as improvements in socioeconomic well-being, healthcare systems, the water supply, and awareness campaigns).

SUBMITTER: Musa SS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8784278 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The Heterogeneous Severity of COVID-19 in African Countries: A Modeling Approach.

Musa Salihu Sabiu SS Wang Xueying X Zhao Shi S Li Shudong S Hussaini Nafiu N Wang Weiming W He Daihai D

Bulletin of mathematical biology 20220124 3

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on global health and economics. The impact in African countries has not been investigated thoroughly via fitting epidemic models to the reported COVID-19 deaths. We downloaded the data for the 12 most-affected countries with the highest cumulative COVID-19 deaths to estimate the time-varying basic reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) and infection attack rate. We develop a simple epidemic model and fitted it to reported COVID-19 deaths in ...[more]

PMID: 35067773

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Dataset Information

The Heterogeneous Severity of COVID-19 in African Countries: A Modeling Approach.

Publications

The Heterogeneous Severity of COVID-19 in African Countries: A Modeling Approach.

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