Dataset Information

Propensity score methods for comparative-effectiveness analysis: A case study of direct oral anticoagulants in the atrial fibrillation population.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To explore methodological challenges when using real-world evidence (RWE) to estimate comparative-effectiveness in the context of Health Technology Assessment of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in Scotland.

Methods

We used linkage data from the Prescribing Information System (PIS), Scottish Morbidity Records (SMR) and mortality records for newly anticoagulated patients to explore methodological challenges in the use of Propensity score (PS) matching, Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and covariate adjustment with PS. Model performance was assessed by standardised difference. Clinical outcomes (stroke and major bleeding) and mortality were compared for all DOACs (including apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban) versus warfarin. Patients were followed for 2 years from first oral anticoagulant prescription to first clinical event or death. Censoring was applied for treatment switching or discontinuation.

Results

Overall, a good balance of patients' covariates was obtained with every PS model tested. IPW was found to be the best performing method in assessing covariate balance when applied to subgroups with relatively large sample sizes (combined-DOACs versus warfarin). With the IPTW-IPCW approach, the treatment effect tends to be larger, but still in line with the treatment effect estimated using other PS methods. Covariate adjustment with PS in the outcome model performed well when applied to subgroups with smaller sample sizes (dabigatran versus warfarin), as this method does not require further reduction of sample size, and trimming or truncation of extreme weights.

Conclusion

The choice of adequate PS methods may vary according to the characteristics of the data. If assumptions of unobserved confounding hold, multiple approaches should be identified and tested. PS based methods can be implemented using routinely collected linked data, thus supporting Health Technology decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Ciminata G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8786176 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:The effects of direct oral anticoagulants in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation should be assessed in actual conditions of use. France has near-universal healthcare coverage with a unified healthcare information system, allowing large population-based analyses. NAXOS (Evaluation of Apixaban in Stroke and Systemic Embolism Prevention in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation) aimed to compare the safety, effectiveness, and mortality of apixaban with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), rivaroxaban, and dabigatran, in oral anticoagulant-naive patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. METHODS:This was an observational study using French National Health System claims data and including all adults with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who initiated oral anticoagulant between 2014 and 2016. Outcomes of interest were major bleeding events leading to hospitalization (safety), stroke and systemic thromboembolic events (effectiveness), and all-cause mortality. Four approaches were used for comparative analyses: matching on propensity score (PS; 1:n); as a sensitivity analysis, matching on high-dimensional PS; adjustment on PS; and adjustment on known confounders. For each outcome, cumulative incidence rates accounting for competing risks of death were estimated. RESULTS:Overall, 321 501 patients were analyzed, of whom 35.0%, 27.2%, 31.1%, and 6.6% initiated VKAs, apixaban, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran, respectively. Apixaban was associated with a lower PS-matched risk of major bleeding compared with VKAs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.43 [95% CI, 0.40-0.46]) and rivaroxaban (HR, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.63-0.72]), but not dabigatran (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.81-1.08]). Apixaban was associated with a lower risk of stroke and systemic thromboembolic event compared with VKAs (HR, 0.60 [95% CI, 0.56-0.65]), but not rivaroxaban (HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.97-1.15]) or dabigatran (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.78-1.11]). All-cause mortality was lower with apixaban than with VKAs, but not lower than with rivaroxaban or dabigatran. CONCLUSIONS:Apixaban was associated with superior safety, effectiveness, and lower mortality than VKAs; with superior safety than rivaroxaban and similar safety to dabigatran; and with similar effectiveness when compared with rivaroxaban or dabigatran. These observational data suggest potentially important differences in outcomes between direct oral anticoagulants, which should be explored in randomized trials.

Project description:Aims: Observational studies of various dose levels of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) found that a high proportion of patients received a dose lower than the target dose tested in randomized controlled trials. There is a need to compare low-dose DOACs with warfarin or other DOACs on effectiveness and safety. Methods: Using administrative data from Quebec province, Canada, we built a cohort of new warfarin or DOAC users discharged from hospital between 2011 and 2017. We determined CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, and comorbidities for 3-year prior cohort entry. The primary effectiveness endpoint was a composite of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and secondary outcomes included a safety composite of major bleeding (MB) events and effectiveness composite (stroke/SE, death) at 1-year follow-up. We contrasted each low-dose DOAC with warfarin or other DOACs as references using inverse probability of treatment weighting to estimate marginal Cox hazard ratios (HRs). Results: The cohort comprised 22,969 patients (mean age: 80-86). We did not find a significant risk reduction for the stroke/SE primary effectiveness endpoint for DOACs vs. warfarin; however, we observed a significantly lower risk for low-dose dabigatran vs. warfarin (HR [95%CI]: 0.59 [0.42-0.81]) for effectiveness composite, mainly due to a lower death rate. The differences in effectiveness and safety composites between low-dose rivaroxaban vs. warfarin were not significant. However, low-dose apixaban had a better safety composite (HR: 0.68 [0.53-0.88]) vs. warfarin. Comparisons of dabigatran vs. apixaban showed a lower risk of stroke/SE (HR: 0.53 [0.30-0.93]) and a 2-fold higher risk of MB. The MB risk was higher for rivaroxaban than for apixaban (HR: 1.58 [1.09-2.29]). Conclusions: The results of this population-based study suggest that low-dose dabigatran has a better effective composite than warfarin. Compared with apixaban, low-dose dabigatran had a better effectiveness composite but a worse safety profile. Low-dose apixaban had a better safety composite than warfarin and other low-dose DOACs. Given that the comparative effectiveness and safety seem to vary from one DOAC to another, pharmacokinetic data for specific populations are now warranted.

Project description:BackgroundPatients with atrial fibrillation and severely decreased kidney function were excluded from the pivotal non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC) trials, thereby raising questions about comparative safety and effectiveness in patients with reduced kidney function. The study aimed to compare oral anticoagulants across the range of kidney function in patients with atrial fibrillation.Methods and resultsUsing a US administrative claims database with linked laboratory data, 34 569 new users of oral anticoagulants with atrial fibrillation and estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥15 mL/(min·1.73 m2) were identified between October 1, 2010 to November 29, 2017. The proportion of patients using NOACs declined with decreasing kidney function-73.5%, 69.6%, 65.4%, 59.5%, and 45.0% of the patients were prescribed a NOAC in estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥90, 60 to 90, 45 to 60, 30 to 45, 15 to 30 mL/min per 1.73 m2 groups, respectively. Stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to balance 4 treatment groups (apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and warfarin) on 66 baseline characteristics. In comparison to warfarin, apixaban was associated with a lower risk of stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 0.57 [0.43-0.75]; P<0.001), major bleeding (HR, 0.51 [0.44-0.61]; P<0.001), and mortality (HR, 0.68 [0.56-0.83]; P<0.001); dabigatran was associated with a similar risk of stroke but a lower risk of major bleeding (HR, 0.57 [0.43-0.75]; P<0.001) and mortality (HR, 0.68 [0.48-0.98]; P=0.04); rivaroxaban was associated with a lower risk of stroke (HR, 0.69 [0.51-0.94]; P=0.02), major bleeding (HR, 0.84 [0.72-0.99]; P=0.04), and mortality (HR, 0.73 [0.58-0.91]; P=0.006). There was no significant interaction between treatment and estimated glomerular filtration rate categories for any outcome. When comparing one NOAC to another NOAC, there was no significant difference in mortality, but some differences existed for stroke or major bleeding. No relationship between treatments and falsification end points was found, suggesting no evidence for substantial residual confounding.ConclusionsRelative to warfarin, NOACs are used less frequently as kidney function declines. However, NOACs appears to have similar or better comparative effectiveness and safety across the range of kidney function.

Project description:Objective To study the effectiveness and safety of the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (novel oral anticoagulants, NOACs) dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban compared with warfarin in anticoagulant naïve patients with atrial fibrillation.Design Observational nationwide cohort study.Setting Three Danish nationwide databases, August 2011 to October 2015.Participants 61?678 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation who were naïve to oral anticoagulants and had no previous indication for valvular atrial fibrillation or venous thromboembolism. The study population was distributed according to treatment type: warfarin (n=35?436, 57%), dabigatran 150 mg (n=12?701, 21%), rivaroxaban 20 mg (n=7192, 12%), and apixaban 5 mg (n=6349, 10%).Main outcome measures Effectiveness outcomes defined a priori were ischaemic stroke; a composite of ischaemic stroke or systemic embolism; death; and a composite of ischaemic stroke, systemic embolism, or death. Safety outcomes were any bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and major bleeding.Results When the analysis was restricted to ischaemic stroke, NOACs were not significantly different from warfarin. During one year follow-up, rivaroxaban was associated with lower annual rates of ischaemic stroke or systemic embolism (3.0% v 3.3%, respectively) compared with warfarin: hazard ratio 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.69 to 0.99). The hazard ratios for dabigatran and apixaban (2.8% and 4.9% annually, respectively) were non-significant compared with warfarin. The annual risk of death was significantly lower with apixaban (5.2%) and dabigatran (2.7%) (0.65, 0.56 to 0.75 and 0.63, 0.48 to 0.82, respectively) compared with warfarin (8.5%), but not with rivaroxaban (7.7%). For the combined endpoint of any bleeding, annual rates for apixaban (3.3%) and dabigatran (2.4%) were significantly lower than for warfarin (5.0%) (0.62, 0.51 to 0.74). Warfarin and rivaroxaban had comparable annual bleeding rates (5.3%).Conclusion All NOACs seem to be safe and effective alternatives to warfarin in a routine care setting. No significant difference was found between NOACs and warfarin for ischaemic stroke. The risks of death, any bleeding, or major bleeding were significantly lower for apixaban and dabigatran compared with warfarin.

Project description:BackgroundDirect oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have widely replaced warfarin for stroke prevention in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Our objective was to compare the safety and effectiveness of DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban) versus warfarin for stroke prevention in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in the Canadian setting.MethodsWe conducted a population-based observational multicentre cohort study with propensity score matching and subsequent meta-analysis. We used health care databases from 7 Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia). Patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation who initiated anticoagulation therapy in 2009-2017 were matched to an equal number who initiated warfarin. The primary outcome was the pooled hazard ratio (HR) for ischemic stroke or systemic embolization. Secondary outcomes included pooled HRs for major bleeding; a composite outcome of stroke, systemic embolization, major bleeding and all-cause mortality; and myocardial infarction. We modelled HRs using proportional hazard Cox regression with inverse probability of censoring weights, and estimated pooled HRs with random-effect meta-analyses.ResultsWe included 128 273 patients who initiated anticoagulation with a DOAC (40 503 dabigatran, 49 498 rivaroxaban and 38 272 apixaban) and 128 273 patients who initiated anticoagulation with warfarin. The pooled HR for ischemic stroke or systemic embolization comparing DOACs to warfarin was 1.02 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87 to 1.19). Direct oral anticoagulants were associated with lower rates of major bleeding (pooled HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.97), the composite outcome (pooled HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.89) and all-cause mortality (pooled HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.85).InterpretationIn this real-world study, DOACs were associated with similar risks of ischemic stroke or systemic embolization, and lower risks of bleeding and total mortality compared to warfarin. These findings support the use of DOACs for anticoagulation in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT03596502.