Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 parallel transmission dynamics: Asymptomatic and symptomatic pathways
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chowdhury S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8788092 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections can have different characteristic time scales of transmission. These time-scale differences can shape outbreak dynamics as well as bias population-level estimates of epidemic strength, speed, and controllability. For example, prior work focusing on the initial exponential growth phase of an outbreak found that larger time scales for asymptomatic vs. symptomatic transmission can lead to under-estimates of the basic reproduction number as inferred from epidemic case data. Building upon this work, we use a series of nonlinear epidemic models to explore how differences in asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission time scales can lead to changes in the realized proportion of asymptomatic transmission throughout an epidemic. First, we find that when asymptomatic transmission time scales are longer than symptomatic transmission time scales, then the effective proportion of asymptomatic transmission increases as total incidence decreases. Moreover, these time-scale-driven impacts on epidemic dynamics are enhanced when infection status is correlated between infector and infectee pairs (e.g., due to dose-dependent impacts on symptoms). Next we apply these findings to understand the impact of time-scale differences on populations with age-dependent assortative mixing and in which the probability of having a symptomatic infection increases with age. We show that if asymptomatic generation intervals are longer than corresponding symptomatic generation intervals, then correlations between age and symptoms lead to a decrease in the age of infection during periods of epidemic decline (whether due to susceptible depletion or intervention). Altogether, these results demonstrate the need to explore the role of time-scale differences in transmission dynamics alongside behavioral changes to explain outbreak features both at early stages (e.g., in estimating the basic reproduction number) and throughout an epidemic (e.g., in connecting shifts in the age of infection to periods of changing incidence).
| S-EPMC9830934 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe huge surge in COVID-19 cases in Karnataka state, India, during early phase of the pandemic especially following return of residents from other states and countries required investigation with respect to transmission dynamics, clinical status, demographics, comorbidities and mortality. Knowledge on the role of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was not available.MethodsThe study included all the cases reported from March 8 - May 31, 2020. Individuals with a history of international or domestic travel from high burden states, Influenza-like Illness or Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and high-risk contacts of COVID-19 cases were included. Detailed analysis based on contact tracing data available from the line-list of state surveillance unit was performed using cluster network analysis software.FindingsAmongst the 3404 COVID-19 positive cases, 3096 (91%) were asymptomatic while 308 (9%) were symptomatic. Majority of asymptomatic cases were in the age range of 16 and 45 years while symptomatic cases were between 31 and 65 years. Mortality rate was especially higher among middle-aged and elderly cases with co-morbidities, 34/38 (89·4%). Cluster network analysis of 822 cases indicated that the secondary attack rate, size of the cluster and superspreading events were higher when the source case was symptomatic as compared to an asymptomatic.InterpretationOur findings indicate that both asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases transmit the infection, although symptomatic cases were the main driving force within the state during the beginning of the pandemic. Considering the large proportion of asymptomatic cases, their ability to spread infection cannot be overlooked. Notwithstanding the limitations and bias in identifying asymptomatic cases, the findings have major implications for testing policies. Active search, early testing and treatment of symptomatic elderly patients with comorbidities should be prioritized for containing the spread of COVID-19 and reducing mortality.FundingIntermediate Fellowship, Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance to Giridhara R Babu, Grant number: IA/CPHI/14/1/501499.
| S-EPMC7831811 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReports suggest that asymptomatic individuals (those with no symptoms at all throughout infection) with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are infectious, but the extent of transmission based on symptom status requires further study.PurposeThis living review aims to critically appraise available data about secondary attack rates from people with asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.Data sourcesMedline, EMBASE, China Academic Journals full-text database (CNKI), and pre-print servers were searched from 30 December 2019 to 3 July 2020 using relevant MESH terms.Study selectionStudies that report on contact tracing of index cases with SARS-CoV-2 infection in either English or Chinese were included.Data extractionTwo authors independently extracted data and assessed study quality and risk of bias. We calculated the secondary attack rate as the number of contacts with SARS-CoV-2, divided by the number of contacts tested.Data synthesisOf 927 studies identified, 80 were included. Summary secondary attack rate estimates were 1% (95% CI 0%-2%) with a prediction interval of 0%-10% for asymptomatic index cases in ten studies, 7% (95% CI 3%-11%) with a prediction interval of 1%-40% for pre-symptomatic cases in 11 studies and 6% (95% CI 5%-8%) with a prediction interval of 5%-38% for symptomatic index cases in 40 studies. The highest secondary attack rates were found in contacts who lived in the same household as the index case. Other activities associated with transmission were group activities such as sharing meals or playing board games with the index case, regardless of the disease status of the index case.LimitationsWe excluded some studies because the index case or number of contacts were unclear.ConclusionAsymptomatic patients can transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others, but our findings indicate that such individuals are responsible for fewer secondary infections than people with symptoms.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42020188168.
| S-EPMC7825872 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHousehold transmission contributes to SARS-CoV-2 spread, but the role of children in transmission is unclear. We conducted a study that included symptomatic and asymptomatic children and adults exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in their households with the objective of determining how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted within households.MethodsIn this case-ascertained antibody-surveillance study, we enrolled households in Ottawa, Ontario, in which at least 1 household member had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing. The enrolment period was September 2020 to March 2021. Potentially eligible participants were identified if they had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at an academic emergency department or affiliated testing centre; people who learned about the study through the media could also self-identify for participation. At least 2 participants were required for a household to be eligible for study participation, and at least 1 enrolled participant per household had to be a child (age < 18 yr). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to evaluate SARS-CoV-2-specific IgA, IgM and IgG against the spike-trimer and nucleocapsid protein. The primary outcome was household secondary attack rate, defined as the proportion of household contacts positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibody among the total number of household contacts participating in the study. We performed descriptive statistics at both the individual and household levels. To estimate and compare outcomes between patient subgroups, and to examine predictors of household transmission, we fitted a series of multivariable logistic regression with robust standard errors to account for clustering of individuals within households.ResultsWe enrolled 695 participants from 180 households: 180 index participants (74 children, 106 adults) and 515 of their household contacts (266 children, 249 adults). A total of 487 household contacts (94.6%) (246 children, 241 adults) had SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, of whom 239 had a positive result (secondary attack rate 49.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 42.9%-55.3%). Eighty-eight (36.8%, 95% CI 29.3%-43.2%) of the 239 were asymptomatic; asymptomatic rates were similar for children (51/130 [39.2%, 95% CI 30.7%-48.5%]) and adults (37/115 [32.2%, 95% CI 24.2%-41.4%]) (odds ratio [OR] 1.3, 95% CI 0.8-2.1). Adults were more likely than children to transmit SARS-CoV-2 (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3-3.6). The odds of transmission from asymptomatic (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.2-1.4) versus symptomatic (OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6-1.4) index participants to household contacts was uncertain. Predictors of household transmission included household density (number of people per bedroom), relationship to index participant and number of cases in the household.InterpretationThe rate of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within households was nearly 50% during the study period, and children were an important source of spread. The findings suggest that children are an important driver of the COVID-19 pandemic; this should inform public health policy.
| S-EPMC9007444 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Many SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals remain asymptomatic. Little is known about the extent and quality of their antiviral humoral response. Here, we analyze antibody functions in 52 asymptomatic infected individuals, 119 mildly symptomatic, and 21 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We measure anti-spike immunoglobulin G (IgG), IgA, and IgM levels with the S-Flow assay and map IgG-targeted epitopes with a Luminex assay. We also evaluate neutralization, complement deposition, and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) using replication-competent SARS-CoV-2 or reporter cell systems. We show that COVID-19 sera mediate complement deposition and kill infected cells by ADCC. Sera from asymptomatic individuals neutralize the virus, activate ADCC, and trigger complement deposition. Antibody levels and functions are lower in asymptomatic individuals than they are in symptomatic cases. Antibody functions are correlated, regardless of disease severity. Longitudinal samplings show that antibody functions follow similar kinetics of induction and contraction. Overall, asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection elicits polyfunctional antibodies neutralizing the virus and targeting infected cells.
| S-EPMC8057765 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We investigated the kinetics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 neutralizing antibodies in 7 asymptomatic persons and 11 patients with pneumonia. The geometric mean titer of neutralizing antibodies declined from 219.4 at 2 months to 143.7 at 5 months after infection, indicating a waning antibody response.
| S-EPMC7774548 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The global supply of COVID-19 vaccines remains limited. An understanding of the immune response that is predictive of protection could facilitate rapid licensure of new vaccines. Data from a randomized efficacy trial of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine in the United Kingdom was analyzed to determine the antibody levels associated with protection against SARS-CoV-2. Binding and neutralizing antibodies at 28 days after the second dose were measured in infected and noninfected vaccine recipients. Higher levels of all immune markers were correlated with a reduced risk of symptomatic infection. A vaccine efficacy of 80% against symptomatic infection with majority Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 was achieved with 264 (95% CI: 108, 806) binding antibody units (BAU)/ml: and 506 (95% CI: 135, not computed (beyond data range) (NC)) BAU/ml for anti-spike and anti-RBD antibodies, and 26 (95% CI: NC, NC) international unit (IU)/ml and 247 (95% CI: 101, NC) normalized neutralization titers (NF50) for pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization, respectively. Immune markers were not correlated with asymptomatic infections at the 5% significance level. These data can be used to bridge to new populations using validated assays, and allow extrapolation of efficacy estimates to new COVID-19 vaccines.
| S-EPMC8604724 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infections are very complex and remain to be further characterized. In this study, we performed the single-cell B-cell receptor (BCR) sequencing (scBCR-seq) of the PBMC samples from the healthy controls and SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals with various clinical presentations, and subsequently analyzed the abundance, diversity and difference of BCR repertoire in different groups of COVID-19 patients and the healthy controls, respectively. We identified a number of unique heavy or light chain VDJ genes pairs and combinational preference in each group, such as IGKV3-7 enriched in the asymptomatic subjects, whereas IGHV3-23-IGHJ4, IGHV1-18–IGLV3-19, IGHV1-18–IGLV3-21, and IGHV1-1–IGLV3-25 enriched in the recovery patients from the severe diseases. These findings may advance our understanding of the B-cell mediated immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infections and help develop novel vaccine candidates and therapeutic antibodies against COVID-19.
2022-09-15 | GSE180118 | GEO
Project description:BackgroundInflammatory biomarkers have been used to portend disease severity in nonpregnant individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, currently, limited data are available, and with mixed results, to elucidate which inflammatory biomarkers may be most associated with clinical phenotype in pregnant patients.ObjectiveWe aimed to compare laboratory findings among pregnant patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection by symptom status and disease severity.Study designWe retrospectively evaluated pregnant patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 infection, confirmed through polymerase chain reaction testing, at an urban academic US hospital between March 2020 and October 2020, performed for reported symptoms or universal screening on admission. In our hospital, all patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were recommended to have baseline laboratory testing, including leukocyte, neutrophil, and lymphocyte counts; aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; procalcitonin; lactate dehydrogenase; D-dimer; and ferritin. We performed multivariable logistic regression to evaluate peak laboratory abnormalities significantly associated with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease severity with gestational age at diagnosis, maternal age, and obesity as covariates. The sensitivity and specificity of laboratory abnormalities were calculated to identify symptomatic vs asymptomatic infection and severe to critical disease vs mild to moderate disease.ResultsWe identified 175 pregnant patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, of whom 100 (57%) were symptomatic; 17 (17%) of those who were symptomatic had a severe to critical disease. Laboratory data were available for 128 patients, of whom 67 (52%) were symptomatic. Compared with asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic individuals were more likely to exhibit elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels after adjusting for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio, 5.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.42-22.52; sensitivity, 81%; specificity, 43%). In symptomatic individuals, transaminitis (adjusted odds ratio, 5.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.27-25.43), elevated procalcitonin levels (adjusted odds ratio, 16.60; 95% confidence interval, 2.61-105.46), and elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels (adjusted odds ratio, 17.55; 95% confidence interval, 2.51-122.78) were independently associated with severe to critical disease rather than mild to moderate disease after adjusting for maternal age and obesity. For differentiating disease severity, sensitivity rates for transaminitis, procalcitonin elevation, and lactate dehydrogenase elevation were 47%, 87%, and 53%, respectively, whereas the specificity rates were 89%, 63%, and 90%, respectively.ConclusionInflammatory biomarkers in pregnant patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection exhibited vast heterogeneity, poor discriminative ability, and thereby limited clinical utility. Larger registry studies should evaluate which inflammatory biomarkers may be most useful for risk stratification and prognostication of pregnant patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, taking into account the physiology of pregnancy.
| S-EPMC8364143 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe development of memory B cells after asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection is not well understood.MethodsWe compared Spike antibody titers, pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers, and memory B cell responses among SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive Marine recruits who either reported asymptomatic or symptomatic infection.Results36 asymptomatic participants exhibited similar Spike IgG titers, Spike IgA titers, and pseudovirus neutralization titers compared to 30 symptomatic participants. Pseudovirus neutralization and Spike IgG titers showed significant positive correlations with frequency of memory B cells.ConclusionsAmong young adults, asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection induced antibody and memory B cell responses comparable to mild symptomatic infection.
| S-EPMC9384564 | biostudies-literature