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Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change.

ABSTRACT: Coffee, cashew and avocado are of high socio-economic importance in many tropical smallholder farming systems around the globe. As plantation crops with a long lifespan, their cultivation requires long-term planning. The evaluation of climate change impacts on their biophysical suitability is therefore essential for developing adaptation measures and selecting appropriate varieties or crops. In this study, we modelled the current and future suitability of coffee arabica, cashew and avocado on a global scale based on climatic and soil requirements of the three crops. We used climate outputs of 14 global circulation models based on three emission scenarios to model the future (2050) climate change impacts on the crops both globally and in the main producing countries. For all three crops, climatic factors, mainly long dry seasons, mean temperatures (high and low), low minimum temperatures and annual precipitation (high and low), were more restrictive for the global extent of suitable growing regions than land and soil parameters, which were primarily low soil pH, unfavourable soil texture and steep slopes. We found shifts in suitable growing regions due to climate change with both regions of future expansion and contraction for all crops investigated. Coffee proved to be most vulnerable, with negative climate impacts dominating in all main producing regions. For both cashew and avocado, areas suitable for cultivation are expected to expand globally while in most main producing countries, the areas of highest suitability may decrease. The study reveals that climate change adaptation will be necessary in most major producing regions of all three crops. At high latitudes and high altitudes, however, they may all profit from increasing minimum temperatures. The study presents the first global assessment of climate change impacts on cashew and avocado suitability.

SUBMITTER: Gruter R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8791496 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:In the last five decades a continuous increase in the average global temperature has been recorded. Furthermore, natural disasters (e.g. heat waves, severe storms, floods and large forest fires) are becoming more frequent. The impact of global warming and climate change on health involves an increase in respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and cognitive mental diseases. Furthermore, a change in the frequency and patterns of infectious diseases can also be observed in Europe. MATERIAL AND METHODS:This article presents the most important studies that investigated diseases associated with the climate change, with special reference to those that represent a challenge for intensive care medicine. RESULTS:Currently available epidemiological data and statistical extrapolations indicate that diseases resulting from the climate change (acute infection-related respiratory and intestinal diseases, exacerbation of pre-existing pulmonary lesions, heat-related dehydration, cerebral insults and myocardial infarction) are relevant for intensive care medicine. Particular emphasis is placed on a significant increase in acute kidney damage during heat waves. A previously unknown pattern of infectious diseases necessitates new knowledge and targeted management. In some studies, persisting mental impairments were registered during heat waves and natural disasters, e.g. posttraumatic stress disorder. CONCLUSION:Intensive care medicine must be prepared for the challenges due to global warming and climate change. Slow but continuous changes (e.g. rise in temperature) as well as acute changes (e.g. heat waves and natural disasters) will induce an increased need for intensive medical care services (e.g. an increase in the need for renal replacement procedures). Intensive care physicians will need to be familiar with the diagnostics and management of diseases associated with the climate change. An initiative of the specialist societies involved would be welcomed.

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Expected global suitability of coffee, cashew and avocado due to climate change.

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