S-EPMC8792296 - Determinants of Incident Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events Among Those With Absent Coronary Artery Calcium: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. - OmicsDI

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Dataset Information

Determinants of Incident Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events Among Those With Absent Coronary Artery Calcium: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Multisociety cholesterol guideline states that statin therapy may be withheld or delayed among intermediate-risk individuals in the absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC=0). We evaluated whether traditional cardiovascular risk factors are associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events among individuals with CAC=0 over long-term follow-up.

Methods

We included participants with CAC=0 at baseline from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a prospective cohort study of individuals free of clinical ASCVD at baseline. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to study the association between cardiovascular risk factors (cigarette smoking, diabetes, hypertension, preventive medication use [aspirin and statin], family history of premature ASCVD, chronic kidney disease, waist circumference, lipid and inflammatory markers) and adjudicated incident ASCVD outcomes.

Results

We studied 3416 individuals (mean [SD] age 58 [9] years; 63% were female, 33% White, 31% Black, 12% Chinese American, and 24% Hispanic). Over a median follow-up of 16 years, there were 189 ASCVD events (composite of coronary heart disease and stroke) of which 91 were coronary heart disease, 88 were stroke, and 10 were both coronary heart disease and stroke events. The unadjusted event rates of ASCVD were ≤5 per 1000 person-years among individuals with CAC=0 for most risk factors with the exception of current cigarette smoking (7.3), diabetes (8.9), hypertension (5.4), and chronic kidney disease (6.8). After multivariable adjustment, risk factors that were significantly associated with ASCVD included current cigarette smoking: hazard ratio, 2.12 (95% CI, 1.32-3.42); diabetes: hazard ratio, 1.68 (95% CI, 1.01-2.80); and hypertension: hazard ratio, 1.57 (95% CI, 1.06-2.33).

Conclusions

Current cigarette smoking, diabetes, and hypertension are independently associated with incident ASCVD over a 16-year follow-up among those with CAC=0.

SUBMITTER: Al Rifai M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8792296 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Determinants of Incident Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events Among Those With Absent Coronary Artery Calcium: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Al Rifai Mahmoud M Blaha Michael J MJ Nambi Vijay V Shea Steven J C SJC Michos Erin D ED Blumenthal Roger S RS Ballantyne Christie M CM Szklo Moyses M Greenland Philip P Miedema Michael D MD Nasir Khurram K Rotter Jerome I JI Guo Xiuqing X Yao Jie J Post Wendy S WS Virani Salim S SS

Circulation 20211208 4

<h4>Background</h4>The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Multisociety cholesterol guideline states that statin therapy may be withheld or delayed among intermediate-risk individuals in the absence of coronary artery calcium (CAC=0). We evaluated whether traditional cardiovascular risk factors are associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events among individuals with CAC=0 over long-term follow-up.<h4>Methods</h4>We included participants ...[more]

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Worldwide clinical practice guidelines for dyslipidemia emphasize allocating statin therapy to those at the highest absolute atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. METHODS AND RESULTS:We examined 5534 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants who were not on baseline medications for dyslipidemia. Participants were classified by baseline coronary artery calcium (CAC) score (>0, ? 100) and the common clinical scheme of counting lipid abnormalities (LA), including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ? 3.36 mmol/L (130 mg/dL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <1.03 mmol/L (40 mg/dL) for men or <1.29 mmol/L (50 mg/dL) for women, and triglycerides ? 1.69 mmol/L (150 mg/dL). Our main outcome measure was incident CVD (myocardial infarction, angina resulting in revascularization, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke, cardiovascular death). Over a median follow-up of 7.6 years, more than half of events (55%) occurred in the 21% of participants with CAC ? 100. Conversely, 65% of events occurred in participants with 0 or 1 LA. In those with CAC ? 100, CVD rates ranged from 22.7 to 29.5 per 1000 person-years across LA categories. In contrast, with CAC=0, CVD rates ranged from 2.7 to 5.9 per 1000 person-years across LA categories. Individuals with 0 LA and CAC ? 100 had a higher event rate compared with individuals with 3 LA but CAC=0 (22.7 versus 5.9 per 1000 person-years). Similar results were obtained when we classified LA using data set quartiles of total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or low-density lipoprotein particle concentration and guideline categories of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS:CAC may have the potential to help match statin therapy to absolute CVD risk. Across the spectrum of dyslipidemia, event rates similar to secondary prevention populations were observed for patients with CAC ? 100.

Project description:AimsWhile coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been extensively validated for predicting clinical events, most outcome studies of CAC have evaluated coronary heart disease (CHD) rather than atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events (including stroke). Also, virtually all CAC studies are of short- or intermediate-term follow-up, so studies across multi-ethnic cohorts with long-term follow-up are warranted prior to widespread clinical use. We sought to evaluate the contribution of CAC using the population-based MESA cohort with over 10 years of follow-up for ASCVD events, and whether the association of CAC with events varied by sex, race/ethnicity, or age category.Methods and resultsWe utilized MESA, a prospective multi-ethnic cohort study of 6814 participants (51% women), aged 45-84 years, free of clinical CVD at baseline. We evaluated the relationship between CAC and incident ASCVD using Cox regression models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, income, cigarette smoking status, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, lipid-lowering medication, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, intentional physical exercise, and body mass index. Only the first event for each individual was used in the analysis. Overall, 500 incident ASCVD (7.4%) events were observed in the total study population over a median of 11.1 years. Hard ASCVD included 217 myocardial infarction, 188 strokes (not transient ischaemic attack), 13 resuscitated cardiac arrest, and 82 CHD deaths. Event rates in those with CAC = 0 Agatston units ranged from 1.3% to 5.6%, while for those with CAC > 300, the 10-year event rates ranged from 13.1% to 25.6% across different age, gender, and racial subgroups. At 10 years of follow-up, all participants with CAC > 100 were estimated to have >7.5% risk regardless of demographic subset. Ten-year ASCVD event rates increased steadily across CAC categories regardless of age, sex, or race/ethnicity. For each doubling of CAC, we estimated a 14% relative increment in ASCVD risk, holding all other risk factors constant. This association was not significantly modified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, or baseline lipid-lowering use.ConclusionsCoronary artery calcium is associated strongly and in a graded fashion with 10-year risk of incident ASCVD as it is for CHD, independent of standard risk factors, and similarly by age, gender, and ethnicity. While 10-year event rates in those with CAC = 0 were almost exclusively below 5%, those with CAC ≥ 100 were consistently above 7.5%, making these potentially valuable cutpoints for the consideration of preventive therapies. Coronary artery calcium strongly predicts risk with the same magnitude of effect in all races, age groups, and both sexes, which makes it among the most useful markers for predicting ASCVD risk.

Project description:Highlights • Women with early menopause are at greater risk for heart disease over the long-term.• Over half of middle-aged women with early menopause were free of CAC, similar to women without early menopause.• Coronary calcium scores were similar between women with and without early menopause.• Women without calcium had low risk for heart disease regardless of menopause history. Background and Aims We aimed to determine the utility of coronary artery calcium (CAC) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk stratification in women with and without early menopause (EM). Methods To examine the association between CAC and incident ASCVD, we performed Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling using data from 2,456 postmenopausal women in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with or without EM, defined as occurring at <45 years of age. Results The cohort was 64.1 ± 9.1 years old and 28.0% experienced EM. There were 291 ASCVD events over 12.5 ± 3.6 year follow-up with a higher event rate among those with EM compared to those without EM of 13.6 vs. 9.0 per 1,000 year follow-up (p < 0.01). Women with EM had a slightly lower prevalence of CAC = 0 (55.1%) than women without EM (59.7%) (p = 0.04) despite no difference in mean age. Among women with CAC = 0, the cumulative incidence of ASCVD at 10 years was low-to-borderline for women with (5.4%) and without EM (3.2%) (p = 0.06). However, women with EM had a significantly higher 15-year risk with an adjusted HR of 1.96 (95% CI: 1.26–3.04). In multivariable Cox models, women with CAC ≥ 1 had progressively increased ASCVD risk that did not significantly differ by EM status. Conclusion In MESA, >50% of middle-aged postmenopausal women with EM had CAC = 0, similar to those without EM. Among women with CAC = 0, those with EM had a low to borderline 10-year risk of ASCVD, but the 15-year risk was significantly higher for women with EM versus those without EM. When CAC ≥ 1, the incidence of ASCVD was similar for women with and without EM. These findings support the use of CAC to help improve ASCVD risk stratification in women with EM. Condensed abstract This study investigated the association between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in postmenopausal women with and without early menopause (EM). We found that >50% of women had CAC = 0 and an associated low-to-borderline 10-year cumulative incidence of ASCVD. However, the risk for ASCVD was significantly higher for women with EM after 15-years follow-up. Additional research is needed to better understand the differences in long-term ASCVD risk between women with and without EM who have CAC = 0. Graphical abstract Image, graphical abstract

Project description:ImportanceThe interplay of self-rated health (SRH), coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores, and cardiovascular risk is poorly described.ObjectivesTo assess the degree of correlation between SRH and CAC, to determine whether these measures are complementary for risk prediction, and to assess the incremental value of the addition of SRH to established risk tools.Design, setting, and participantsThe Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) is a large population-based prospective cohort study of adults aged 45 to 84 years who were recruited from 6 US communities. A total of 6764 participants without baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) were included in the analysis. Data were collected from July 2000 through August 2002. Follow-up was completed by December 2013, and data were analyzed from October 2018 to December 2018.ExposuresThe EVGGFP (excellent, very good, good, fair, and poor) self-assessment of overall health (assessed before the baseline study examination) and CAC score. The EVGGFP rating was categorized as poor/fair, good, very good, or excellent.Main outcomes and measuresHard coronary heart disease (CHD) events, hard CVD events, and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 13.2 years (interquartile range, 12.7-13.7 years).ResultsAmong the study population of 6764 participants, the mean (SD) age was 62.1 (10.2) years, and 52.9% were women. The EVGGFP rating was strongly associated with age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational and income levels, healthy diet and physical activity, and cardiovascular risk factors. Despite encapsulating many risk variables, no correlation (r = -0.007; P = .57) or association between EVGGFP and the presence (χ2 = 0.84; P = .84) or severity (χ2 = 4.64; P = .86) of CAC was found. During follow-up, 1161 deaths, 637 hard CVD events, and 405 hard CHD events were recorded. In models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and CAC, participants who reported excellent health had a 45% lower risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 0.55; 95% CI, 0.39-0.77) and a 42% lower risk of CHD (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.90) compared with those who reported poor/fair health. Participants in the excellent SRH category who had any CAC had markedly elevated risk of hard CHD (HR, 6.19; 95% CI, 2.1-18.3) and CVD (HR, 6.50; 95% CI, 2.7-15.6) events compared with those with a CAC score of 0. The addition of the EVGGFP rating to CAC improved the area under the curve (C statistic) for CHD events (0.725 vs 0.734; P = .007), CVD events (0.693 vs 0.706; P < .001), and all-cause mortality (0.685 vs 0.707; P < .001). However, the addition of the EVGGFP rating to the combination of CAC and atherosclerotic CVD risk score did not significantly improve C statistics for CHD events (0.751 vs 0.753; P = .39), CVD events (0.739 vs 0.741; P = .18), or all-cause mortality (0.779 vs 0.781; P = .13).Conclusions and relevanceAlthough SRH and CAC integrate many risk variables, this study suggests that they are poorly correlated and have complementary predictive utility. A perception of excellent health does not obviate the need for definitive assessment of CVD risk, whereas fair/poor perceived health may serve as a risk enhancer, arguing for advanced risk assessment in selected clinical scenarios.