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Predicting the effectiveness of the online clinical clerkship curriculum: Development of a multivariate prediction model and validation study.

ABSTRACT: Given scientific and technological advancements, expectations of online medical education are increasing. However, there is no way to predict the effectiveness of online clinical clerkship curricula. To develop a prediction model, we conducted cross-sectional national surveys in Japan. Social media surveys were conducted among medical students in Japan during the periods May-June 2020 and February-March 2021. We used the former for the derivation dataset and the latter for the validation dataset. We asked students questions in three areas: 1) opportunities to learn from each educational approach (lectures, medical quizzes, assignments, oral presentations, observation of physicians' practice, clinical skills practice, participation in interprofessional meetings, and interactive discussions with physicians) in online clinical clerkships compared to face-to-face, 2) frequency of technical problems on online platforms, and 3) satisfaction and motivation as outcome measurements. We developed a scoring system based on a multivariate prediction model for satisfaction and motivation in a cross-sectional study of 1,671 medical students during the period May-June 2020. We externally validated this scoring with a cross-sectional study of 106 medical students during February-March 2021 and assessed its predictive performance. The final prediction models in the derivation dataset included eight variables (frequency of lectures, medical quizzes, oral presentations, observation of physicians' practice, clinical skills practice, participation in interprofessional meetings, interactive discussions with physicians, and technical problems). We applied the prediction models created using the derivation dataset to a validation dataset. The prediction performance values, based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, were 0.69 for satisfaction (sensitivity, 0.50; specificity, 0.89) and 0.75 for motivation (sensitivity, 0.71; specificity, 0.85). We developed a prediction model for the effectiveness of the online clinical clerkship curriculum, based on students' satisfaction and motivation. Our model will accurately predict and improve the online clinical clerkship curriculum effectiveness.

SUBMITTER: Kuroda N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8794117 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Purpose: Dosimetric predictors of toxicity after Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) are not well-established. We sought to develop a multivariate model that predicts Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) late grade 2 or greater genitourinary (GU) toxicity by interrogating the entire dose-volume histogram (DVH) from a large cohort of prostate cancer patients treated with SBRT on prospective trials. Methods: Three hundred and thirty-nine patients with late CTCAE toxicity data treated with prostate SBRT were identified and analyzed. All patients received 40 Gy in five fractions, every other day, using volumetric modulated arc therapy. For each patient, we examined 910 candidate dosimetric features including maximum dose, volumes of each organ [CTV, organs at risk (OARs)], V100%, and other granular volumetric/dosimetric indices at varying volumetric/dosimetric values from the entire DVH as well as ADT use to model and predict toxicity from SBRT. Training and validation subsets were generated with 90 and 10% of the patients in our cohort, respectively. Predictive accuracy was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AROC). Univariate analysis with student t-test was first performed on each candidate DVH feature. We subsequently performed advanced machine-learning multivariate analyses including classification and regression tree (CART), random forest, boosted tree, and multilayer neural network. Results: Median follow-up time was 32.3 months (range 3-98.9 months). Late grade ?2 GU toxicity occurred in 20.1% of patients in our series. No single dosimetric parameter had an AROC for predicting late grade ?2 GU toxicity on univariate analysis that exceeded 0.599. Optimized CART modestly improved prediction accuracy, with an AROC of 0.601, whereas other machine learning approaches did not improve upon univariate analyses. Conclusions: CART-based machine learning multivariate analyses drawing from 910 dosimetric features and ADT use modestly improves upon clinical prediction of late GU toxicity alone, yielding an AROC of 0.601. Biologic predictors may enhance predictive models for identifying patients at risk for late toxicity after SBRT.

Project description:BackgroundDuring the pandemic, remote consultations have become the norm for assessing patients with signs and symptoms of COVID-19 to decrease the risk of transmission. This has intensified the clinical uncertainty already experienced by primary care clinicians when assessing patients with suspected COVID-19 and has prompted the use of risk prediction scores, such as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2), to assess severity and guide treatment. However, the risk prediction tools available have not been validated in a community setting and are not designed to capture the idiosyncrasies of COVID-19 infection.ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to produce a multivariate risk prediction tool, RECAP-V1 (Remote COVID-19 Assessment in Primary Care), to support primary care clinicians in the identification of those patients with COVID-19 that are at higher risk of deterioration and facilitate the early escalation of their treatment with the aim of improving patient outcomes.MethodsThe study follows a prospective cohort observational design, whereby patients presenting in primary care with signs and symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 will be followed and their data linked to hospital outcomes (hospital admission and death). Data collection will be carried out by primary care clinicians in four arms: North West London Clinical Commissioning Groups (NWL CCGs), Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), Covid Clinical Assessment Service (CCAS), and South East London CCGs (Doctaly platform). The study involves the use of an electronic template that incorporates a list of items (known as RECAP-V0) thought to be associated with disease outcome according to previous qualitative work. Data collected will be linked to patient outcomes in highly secure environments. We will then use multivariate logistic regression analyses for model development and validation.ResultsRecruitment of participants started in October 2020. Initially, only the NWL CCGs and RCGP RSC arms were active. As of March 24, 2021, we have recruited a combined sample of 3827 participants in these two arms. CCAS and Doctaly joined the study in February 2021, with CCAS starting the recruitment process on March 15, 2021. The first part of the analysis (RECAP-V1 model development) is planned to start in April 2021 using the first half of the NWL CCGs and RCGP RSC combined data set. Posteriorly, the model will be validated with the rest of the NWL CCGs and RCGP RSC data as well as the CCAS and Doctaly data sets. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee on May 27, 2020 (Integrated Research Application System number: 283024, Research Ethics Committee reference number: 20/NW/0266) and badged as National Institute of Health Research Urgent Public Health Study on October 14, 2020.ConclusionsWe believe the validated RECAP-V1 early warning score will be a valuable tool for the assessment of severity in patients with suspected COVID-19 in the community, either in face-to-face or remote consultations, and will facilitate the timely escalation of treatment with the potential to improve patient outcomes.Trial registrationISRCTN registry ISRCTN13953727; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN13953727.International registered report identifier (irrid)DERR1-10.2196/29072.

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Predicting the effectiveness of the online clinical clerkship curriculum: Development of a multivariate prediction model and validation study.

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