Deep learning via LSTM models for COVID-19 infection forecasting in India.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chandra R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8797257 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:COVID-19 has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality globally. We develop a model that uses data from thirty days before a fixed time point to forecast the daily number of new COVID-19 cases fourteen days later in the early stages of the pandemic. Various time-dependent factors including the number of daily confirmed cases, reproduction number, policy measures, mobility and flight numbers were collected. A deep-learning model using Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) architecture was trained on data from 22nd Jan 2020 to 8 Jan 2021 to forecast the new daily number of COVID-19 cases 14 days in advance across 190 countries, from 9 to 31 Jan 2021. A second model with fewer variables but similar architecture was developed. Results were summarised by mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and total absolute percentage error and compared against results from a classical ARIMA model. Median MAE was 157 daily cases (IQR: 26-666) under the first model, and 150 (IQR: 26-716) under the second. Countries with more accurate forecasts had more daily cases and experienced more waves of COVID-19 infections. Among countries with over 10,000 cases over the prediction period, median total absolute percentage error was 33% (IQR: 18-59%) and 34% (IQR: 16-66%) for the first and second models respectively. Both models had comparable median total absolute percentage errors but lower maximum total absolute percentage errors as compared to the classical ARIMA model. A deep-learning approach using Bi-LSTM architecture and open-source data was validated on 190 countries to forecast the daily number of cases in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. Fewer variables could potentially be used without impacting prediction accuracy.
| S-EPMC10589260 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19, responsible of infecting billions of people and economy across the globe, requires detailed study of the trend it follows to develop adequate short-term prediction models for forecasting the number of future cases. In this perspective, it is possible to develop strategic planning in the public health system to avoid deaths as well as managing patients. In this paper, proposed forecast models comprising autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector regression (SVR), long shot term memory (LSTM), bidirectional long short term memory (Bi-LSTM) are assessed for time series prediction of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries in ten major countries affected due to COVID-19. The performance of models is measured by mean absolute error, root mean square error and r2_score indices. In the majority of cases, Bi-LSTM model outperforms in terms of endorsed indices. Models ranking from good performance to the lowest in entire scenarios is Bi-LSTM, LSTM, GRU, SVR and ARIMA. Bi-LSTM generates lowest MAE and RMSE values of 0.0070 and 0.0077, respectively, for deaths in China. The best r2_score value is 0.9997 for recovered cases in China. On the basis of demonstrated robustness and enhanced prediction accuracy, Bi-LSTM can be exploited for pandemic prediction for better planning and management.
| S-EPMC7437542 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and within a few months, it has become a global pandemic. This forced many affected countries to take stringent measures such as complete lockdown, shutting down businesses and trade, as well as travel restrictions, which has had a tremendous economic impact. Therefore, having knowledge and foresight about how a country might be able to contain the spread of COVID-19 will be of paramount importance to the government, policy makers, business partners and entrepreneurs. To help social and administrative decision making, a model that will be able to forecast when a country might be able to contain the spread of COVID-19 is needed.ResultsThe results obtained using our long short-term memory (LSTM) network-based model are promising as we validate our prediction model using New Zealand's data since they have been able to contain the spread of COVID-19 and bring the daily new cases tally to zero. Our proposed forecasting model was able to correctly predict the dates within which New Zealand was able to contain the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the proposed model has been used to forecast the dates when other countries would be able to contain the spread of COVID-19.ConclusionThe forecasted dates are only a prediction based on the existing situation. However, these forecasted dates can be used to guide actions and make informed decisions that will be practically beneficial in influencing the real future. The current forecasting trend shows that more stringent actions/restrictions need to be implemented for most of the countries as the forecasting model shows they will take over three months before they can possibly contain the spread of COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8190741 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an inflammation disease from a new virus. The disease causes respiratory ailment (like influenza) with manifestations, for example, cold, cough and fever, and in progressively serious cases, the problem in breathing. COVID-2019 has been perceived as a worldwide pandemic and a few examinations are being led utilizing different numerical models to anticipate the likely advancement of this pestilence. These numerical models dependent on different factors and investigations are dependent upon potential inclination. Here, we presented a model that could be useful to predict the spread of COVID-2019. We have performed linear regression, Multilayer perceptron and Vector autoregression method for desire on the COVID-19 Kaggle data to anticipate the epidemiological example of the ailment and pace of COVID-2019 cases in India. Anticipated the potential patterns of COVID-19 effects in India dependent on data gathered from Kaggle. With the common data about confirmed, death and recovered cases across India for over the time length helps in anticipating and estimating the not so distant future. For extra assessment or future perspective, case definition and data combination must be kept up persistently.
| S-EPMC7261047 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCenters for Disease Control and Prevention data showed that about 40% of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients had been suffering from at least one underlying medical condition were hospitalized; in which nearly 33% of them needed to be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) to receive specialized medical services. Our study aimed to find a proper machine learning algorithm that can predict confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions with high accuracy.MethodsWe obtained data on daily COVID-19 cases in regular medical inpatient units, emergency department, and ICU in the time window between 21 July 2020 and 21 November 2021. Data for the first 183 days (training data set) were used for long short-term memory (LSTM) network, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), support vector regression (SVR) and decision tree model training, whilst the remaining data for the last 60 days (test data set) were used for model validation. To predict the number of ICU and non-ICU patients, we used these models. Finally, a user-friendly graphical user interface unit was designed to load any time series data (here the trend of population of COVID-19 patients) and train LSTM, ANFIS, SVR or tree models for the prediction of COVID-19 cases for one week ahead.ResultsAll models predicted the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in ICU and non- wards. The values of root-mean-square error and R 2 as model assessment metrics showed that ANFIS model had better predictive power among all models.ConclusionArtificial intelligence-based forecasting models such as ANFIS system or deep learning approach based on LSTM or regression models including SVR or tree regression play a key role in forecasting the required number of beds or other types of medical facilities during the coronavirus pandemic. Thus, the designed graphical user interface of the present study can be used for optimum management of resources by health care systems amid COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC8961204 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The coronavirus disease that outbreak in 2019 has caused various health issues. According to the WHO, the first positive case was detected in Bangladesh on 7th March 2020, but while writing this paper in June 2021, the total confirmed, recovered, and death cases were 826922, 766266 and 13118, respectively. Due to the emergence of COVID-19 in Bangladesh, the country is facing a major public health crisis. Unfortunately, the country does not have a comprehensive health policy to address this issue. This makes it hard to predict how the pandemic will affect the population. Machine learning techniques can help us detect the disease's spread. To predict the trend, parameters, risks, and to take preventive measure in Bangladesh; this work utilized the Recurrent Neural Networks based Deep Learning methodologies like LongShort-Term Memory. Here, we aim to predict the epidemic's progression for a period of more than a year under various scenarios in Bangladesh. We extracted the data for daily confirmed, recovered, and death cases from March 2020 to August 2021. The obtained Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values of confirmed, recovered, and death cases indicates that our result is more accurate than other contemporary techniques. This study indicates that the LSTM model could be used effectively in predicting contagious diseases. The obtained results could help in explaining the seriousness of the situation, also mayhelp the authorities to take precautionary steps to control the situation.
| S-EPMC8712463 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST1416 | biostudies-other
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on public life and health worldwide, putting the world's healthcare systems at risk. The first step in stopping this outbreak is to detect the infection in its early stages, which will relieve the risk, control the outbreak's spread, and restore full functionality to the world's healthcare systems. Currently, PCR is the most prevalent diagnosis tool for COVID-19. However, chest X-ray images may play an essential role in detecting this disease, as they are successful for many other viral pneumonia diseases. Unfortunately, there are common features between COVID-19 and other viral pneumonia, and hence manual differentiation between them seems to be a critical problem and needs the aid of artificial intelligence. This research employs deep- and transfer-learning techniques to develop accurate, general, and robust models for detecting COVID-19. The developed models utilize either convolutional neural networks or transfer-learning models or hybridize them with powerful machine-learning techniques to exploit their full potential. For experimentation, we applied the proposed models to two data sets: the COVID-19 Radiography Database from Kaggle and a local data set from Asir Hospital, Abha, Saudi Arabia. The proposed models achieved promising results in detecting COVID-19 cases and discriminating them from normal and other viral pneumonia with excellent accuracy. The hybrid models extracted features from the flatten layer or the first hidden layer of the neural network and then fed these features into a classification algorithm. This approach enhanced the results further to full accuracy for binary COVID-19 classification and 97.8% for multiclass classification.
| S-EPMC8357494 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hospitals in Canada are facing a crisis-level shortage of critical supplies and equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic. This motivates us to create predictive models that can use Canada COVID-19 data and pandemic-related factors to accurately forecast 5 quantities-three related to hospital resource utilization (i.e., the number of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators that will be needed by COVID-19 patients) and two to the pandemic progress (i.e., the number of COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths)-several weeks in advance. We developed a machine learning method that can use information (i.e., resource utilization, pandemic progress, population mobility, weather condition, and public policy) currently known about a region since March 2020, to learn multiple temporal convolutional network (TCN) models every week; each used for forecasting the weekly average of one of these 5 quantities in Canada (respectively, in six specific provinces) for each, in the next 1 (resp., 2,3,4) weeks. To validate the effectiveness of our method, we compared our method, versus other standard models, on the COVID-19 data and hospital resource data, on the tasks of predicting the 116 values (for Canada and its six most populated provinces), every week from Oct 2020 to July 2021, and the 20 values (only for Canada) for four specific times within 9 July to 31 Dec 2021. Experimental results show that our 4640 TCN models (each forecasting a regional target for a specific future time, on a specific date) can produce accurate 1,2,3,4-week forecasts of the utilization of every hospital resource and pandemic progress for each week from 2 Oct 2020 to 2 July 2021, as well as 80 TCN models for each of the four specified times within 9 July and 31 Dec 2021. Compared to other baseline and state-of-the-art predictive models, our TCN models yielded the best forecasts, with the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Additional experiments, on the IHME COVID-19 data, demonstrate the effectiveness of our TCN models, in comparison with IHME forecasts. Each of our TCN models used a pre-defined set of features; we experimentally validate the effectiveness of these features by showing that these models perform better than other models that instead used other features. Overall, these experimental results demonstrate that our method can accurately forecast hospital resource utilization and pandemic progress for Canada and for each of the six provinces.
| S-EPMC9128327 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) has left the world to a standstill by creating a calamitous situation. To mitigate this devastating effect the inception of artificial intelligence into medical health care is mandatory. This study aims to present the educational perspective of Covid-19 and forecast the number of confirmed and death cases in the USA, India, and Brazil along with the discussion of endothelial dysfunction in epithelial cells and Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 receptor (ACE2) with the Covid-19. Three different deep learning based experimental setups have been framed to forecast Covid-19. Models are (i) Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) (ii) Convolutional LSTM (iii) Proposed ensemble of Convolutional and Bi-directional LSTM network are known as CoBiD-Net ensemble. The educational perspective of Covid-19 has been given along with an architectural discussion of multi-organ failure due to intrusion of Covid-19 with the cell receptors of the human body. Different classification metrics have been calculated using all three models. Proposed CoBiD-Net ensemble model outperforms the other two models with respect to accuracy and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Using CoBiD-Net ensemble, accuracy for Covid-19 cases ranges from 98.10 to 99.13% with MAPE ranges from 0.87 to 1.90. This study will help the countries to know the severity of Covid-19 concerning education in the future along with forecasting of Covid-19 cases and human body interaction with the Covid-19 to make it the self-replicating phenomena. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41324-021-00408-3.
| S-EPMC8196282 | biostudies-literature