Investigating vaccine-induced immunity and its effect in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To allow a return to a pre-COVID-19 lifestyle, virtually every country has initiated a vaccination program to mitigate severe disease burden and control transmission. However, it remains to be seen whether herd immunity will be within reach of these programs.

Methods

We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China, a population with low prior immunity from natural infection. Two vaccination programs were tested and model-based estimates of the immunity level in the population were provided.

Results

We found that it is unlikely to reach herd immunity for the Delta variant given the relatively low efficacy of the vaccines used in China throughout 2021 and the lack of prior natural immunity. We estimated that, assuming a vaccine efficac

SUBMITTER: Liu H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8801316 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature