Dataset Information

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group.

Methods

Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level.

Results

In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years.

Conclusions

All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.

SUBMITTER: Onozuka D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8856001 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.

Onozuka Daisuke D Tanoue Yuta Y Nomura Shuhei S Kawashima Takayuki T Yoneoka Daisuke D Eguchi Akifumi A Ng Chris Fook Sheng CFS Matsuura Kentaro K Shi Shoi S Makiyama Koji K Uryu Shinya S Kawamura Yumi Y Takayanagi Shinichi S Gilmour Stuart S Hayashi Takehiko I TI Miyata Hiroaki H Sera Francesco F Sunagawa Tomimasa T Takahashi Takuri T Tsuchihashi Yuuki Y Kobayashi Yusuke Y Arima Yuzo Y Kanou Kazuhiko K Suzuki Motoi M Hashizume Masahiro M

International journal of epidemiology 20220201 1

<h4>Background</h4>Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group.<h4>Methods</h4>Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortal ...[more]

PMID: 34718594

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Dataset Information

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.

Similar Datasets

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