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Artificial intelligence-based decision support model for new drug development planning.

ABSTRACT: New drug development guarantees a very high return on success, but the success rate is extremely low. Pharmaceutical companies have attempted to use various strategies to increase the success rate of drug development, but this goal has been difficult to achieve. In this study, we developed a model that can guide effective decision-making at the planning stage of new drug development by leveraging machine learning. The Drug Development Recommendation (DDR) model, we present here, is a hybrid model for recommending and/or predicting drug groups suitable for development by individual pharmaceutical companies. It combines association rule learning, collaborative filtering, and content-based filtering approaches for enterprise-customized recommendations. In the case of content-based filtering applying a random forest classification algorithm, the accuracy and area under curve were 78% and 0.74, respectively. In particular, the DDR model was applied to predict the success probability of companies developing Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. It was demonstrated that the higher the predicted score from the DDR model, the more progress in the clinical phase of the COVID-19 vaccine development. Although our approach has limitations that should be improved, it makes scientific as well as industrial contributions in that the DDR model can support rational decision-making prior to initiating drug development by considering not only technical aspects but also company-related variables.

SUBMITTER: Jung YL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8902892 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Artificial intelligence-based decision support model for new drug development planning.

Jung Ye Lim YL Yoo Hyoung Sun HS Hwang JeeNa J

Expert systems with applications 20220308

New drug development guarantees a very high return on success, but the success rate is extremely low. Pharmaceutical companies have attempted to use various strategies to increase the success rate of drug development, but this goal has been difficult to achieve. In this study, we developed a model that can guide effective decision-making at the planning stage of new drug development by leveraging machine learning. The Drug Development Recommendation (DDR) model, we present here, is a hybrid mode ...[more]

PMID: 35283560

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Project description:BackgroundBreast cancer is a leading global health concern, necessitating advancements in recurrence prediction and management. The development of an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (AI-CDSS) using ChatGPT addresses this need with the aim of enhancing both prediction accuracy and user accessibility.ObjectiveThis study aims to develop and validate an advanced machine learning model for a web-based AI-CDSS application, leveraging the question-and-answer guidance capabilities of ChatGPT to enhance data preprocessing and model development, thereby improving the prediction of breast cancer recurrence.MethodsThis study focused on developing an advanced machine learning model by leveraging data from the Tri-Service General Hospital breast cancer registry of 3577 patients (2004-2016). As a tertiary medical center, it accepts referrals from four branches-3 branches in the northern region and 1 branch on an offshore island in our country-that manage chronic diseases but refer complex surgical cases, including breast cancer, to the main center, enriching our study population's diversity. Model training used patient data from 2004 to 2012, with subsequent validation using data from 2013 to 2016, ensuring comprehensive assessment and robustness of our predictive models. ChatGPT is integral to preprocessing and model development, aiding in hormone receptor categorization, age binning, and one-hot encoding. Techniques such as the synthetic minority oversampling technique address the imbalance of data sets. Various algorithms, including light gradient-boosting machine, gradient boosting, and extreme gradient boosting, were used, and their performance was evaluated using metrics such as the area under the curve, accuracy, sensitivity, and F1-score.ResultsThe light gradient-boosting machine model demonstrated superior performance, with an area under the curve of 0.80, followed closely by the gradient boosting and extreme gradient boosting models. The web interface of the AI-CDSS tool was effectively tested in clinical decision-making scenarios, proving its use in personalized treatment planning and patient involvement.ConclusionsThe AI-CDSS tool, enhanced by ChatGPT, marks a significant advancement in breast cancer recurrence prediction, offering a more individualized and accessible approach for clinicians and patients. Although promising, further validation in diverse clinical settings is recommended to confirm its efficacy and expand its use.

Project description:BackgroundIn spring and summer 2022, an outbreak of mpox occurred worldwide, largely confined to men who have sex with men (MSM). There was concern that mpox could break swiftly into congregate settings and populations with high levels of regular frequent physical contact, like university campus communities.ObjectiveTo estimate the likelihood of an mpox outbreak and the potential effect of mitigation measures in a residential college setting.DesignA stochastic dynamic SEIR (susceptible, exposed but not infectious, infectious, or recovered) model of mpox transmission in a study population was developed, composed of: a high-risk group representative of the population of MSM with a basic reproductive number (R 0) of 2.4 and a low-risk group with an R 0 of 0.8. Base input assumptions included an incubation time of 7.6 days and time to recovery of 21 days.SettingU.S. residential college campus.ParticipantsHypothetical cohort of 6500 students.InterventionIsolation, quarantine, and vaccination of close contacts.MeasurementsProportion of 1000 simulations producing sustained transmission; mean cases given sustained transmission; maximum students isolated, quarantined, and vaccinated. All projections are estimated over a planning horizon of 100 days.ResultsWithout mitigation measures, the model estimated an 83% likelihood of sustained transmission, leading to an average of 183 cases. With detection and isolation of 20%, 50%, and 80% of cases, the average infections would fall to 117, 37, and 8, respectively. Reactive vaccination of contacts of detected cases (assuming 50% detection and isolation) reduced mean cases from 37 to 17, assuming 20 vaccinated contacts per detected case. Preemptive vaccination of 50% of the high-risk population before outbreak reduced cases from 37 to 14, assuming 50% detection and isolation.LimitationA model is a stylized portrayal of behavior and transmission on a university campus.ConclusionBased on our current understanding of mpox epidemiology among MSM in the United States, this model-based analysis suggests that future outbreaks of mpox on college campuses may be controlled with timely detection and isolation of symptomatic cases.Primary funding sourceNational Institutes of Health National Institute on Drug Abuse and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

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Artificial intelligence-based decision support model for new drug development planning.

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Artificial intelligence-based decision support model for new drug development planning.

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