Project description:We conducted an audit study - a resume correspondence experiment - to measure discrimination in hiring faced by Indigenous Peoples in the United States (Native Americans, Alaska Natives, and Native Hawaiians). We sent employers 13,516 realistic resumes of Indigenous or white applications for common jobs in 11 cities. We signalled Indigenous status in one of four different ways. Interview offer rates do not differ by race, which holds after an extensive battery of robustness checks. We discuss multiple concerns such as the saliency of signals, selection of cities and occupations, and labour market tightness that could affect the results of our audit study and those of others. We also conduct decompositions of wages, unemployment rates, unemployment durations, and employment durations to explore if discrimination might exist in contexts outside our experiment. We conclude by highlighting the essential tests and considerations that are important for future audit studies, regardless of if they find discrimination or not.
Project description:PurposeMultiple studies have reported a positive association between missing teeth and cognitive impairment. While some authors have postulated causal mechanisms, existing designs preclude assessing this.MethodsWe sought evidence of a causal effect of missing teeth on early-onset cognitive impairment in a natural experiment, using differential exposure to fluoridated water during critical childhood years (ages 5-20 years) in England as the instrument. We coded missing teeth from 0 (≤ 12 missing) to 3 (all missing) and measured the association with cognitive impairment in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing data (2014-5), covering 4958 persons aged 50-70 years.ResultsWe first replicated previous evidence of the strongly positive association of missing teeth with cognitive impairment (β = 0.25 [0.11, 0.39]), after adjusting for socio-demographic covariates, such as age, gender, education, and wealth. Using an instrumental variable design, we found that childhood exposure to water fluoridation was strongly associated with fewer missing teeth, with being exposed to fluoridated water during childhood (16 years) associated with a 0.96 reduction in the missing teeth scale (β = - 0.06 [- 0.10, - 0.02]). However, when using the instrumented measure of missing teeth, predicted by probability of fluoride exposure, we found that missing teeth no longer had an association with cognitive impairment (β = 1.48 [- 1.22, 4.17]), suggesting that previous oral health-cognitive impairment associations had unobserved confounding.ConclusionsOur findings are consistent with the possibility that unobserved confounding leads to the oft-observed association between missing teeth and early-onset cognitive impairment, suggesting that the relationship is spurious rather than causal.
Project description:Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) are poised to transform society, national defense, and the economy by increasing efficiency, precision, and safety. Yet, widespread adoption within society depends on public trust and willingness to use AI-enabled technologies. In this study, we propose the possibility of an AI "trust paradox," in which individuals' willingness to use AI-enabled technologies exceeds their level of trust in these capabilities. We conduct a two-part study to explore the trust paradox. First, we conduct a conjoint analysis, varying different attributes of AI-enabled technologies in different domains-including armed drones, general surgery, police surveillance, self-driving cars, and social media content moderation-to evaluate whether and under what conditions a trust paradox may exist. Second, we use causal mediation analysis in the context of a second survey experiment to help explain why individuals use AI-enabled technologies that they do not trust. We find strong support for the trust paradox, particularly in the area of AI-enabled police surveillance, where the levels of support for its use are both higher than other domains but also significantly exceed trust. We unpack these findings to show that several underlying beliefs help account for public attitudes of support, including the fear of missing out, optimism that future versions of the technology will be more trustworthy, a belief that the benefits of AI-enabled technologies outweigh the risks, and calculation that AI-enabled technologies yield efficiency gains. Our findings have important implications for the integration of AI-enabled technologies in multiple settings.
Project description:Public health officials warn that the greatest barrier to widespread vaccination against Covid-19 will not be scientific or technical, but the considerable public hesitancy to take a novel vaccine. Understanding the factors that influence vaccine acceptance is critical to informing public health campaigns aiming to combat public fears and ensure broad uptake. Employing a conjoint experiment embedded on an online survey of almost 2,000 adult Americans, we show that the effects of seven vaccine attributes on subjects' willingness to vaccinate vary significantly across subgroups. Vaccine efficacy was significantly more influential on vaccine acceptance among whites than among Blacks, while bringing a vaccine to market under a Food and Drug Administration Emergency Use Authorization had a stronger adverse effect on willingness to vaccinate among older Americans and women. Democrats were more sensitive to vaccine efficacy than Republicans, and both groups responded differently to various endorsements of the vaccine. We also explored whether past flu vaccination history, attitudes toward general vaccine safety, and personal contact with severe cases of Covid-19 can explain variation in group vaccination hesitancy. Many subgroups that exhibit the greatest Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy did not report significantly lower frequencies of flu vaccination. Several groups that exhibited greater Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy also reported greater concerns about vaccine safety generally, but others did not. Finally, subgroup variation in reported personal contact with severe cases of Covid-19 did not strongly match subgroup variation in vaccine acceptance.
Project description:We assessed how many US deaths would have been averted each year, 1933-2021, if US age-specific mortality rates had equaled the average of 21 other wealthy nations. We refer to these excess US deaths as "missing Americans." The United States had lower mortality rates than peer countries in the 1930s-1950s and similar mortality in the 1960s and 1970s. Beginning in the 1980s, however, the United States began experiencing a steady increase in the number of missing Americans, reaching 622,534 in 2019 alone. Excess US deaths surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 1,009,467 in 2020 and 1,090,103 in 2021. Excess US mortality was particularly pronounced for persons under 65 years. In 2020 and 2021, half of all US deaths under 65 years and 90% of the increase in under-65 mortality from 2019 to 2021 would have been avoided if the United States had the mortality rates of its peers. In 2021, there were 26.4 million years of life lost due to excess US mortality relative to peer nations, and 49% of all missing Americans died before age 65. Black and Native Americans made up a disproportionate share of excess US deaths, although the majority of missing Americans were White.
Project description:Iodine deficiency is the leading cause of preventable mental retardation in the world today. The condition, which was common in the developed world until the introduction of iodized salt in the 1920s, is connected to low iodine levels in the soil and water. We examine the impact of salt iodization on cognitive outcomes in the US by taking advantage of this natural geographic variation. Salt was iodized over a short period of time beginning in 1924. We use military data collected during WWI and WWII to compare outcomes of cohorts born before and after iodization in localities that were naturally poor and rich in iodine. We find that for the one quarter of the population most deficient in iodine this intervention raised IQ by approximately one standard deviation. Our results can explain roughly one decade's worth of the upward trend in IQ in the US (the Flynn Effect). We also document a large increase in thyroid-related deaths following the countrywide adoption of iodized salt, which affected mostly older individuals in localities with high prevalence of iodine deficiency.
Project description:BackgroundBarriers to public support for naloxone distribution include lack of knowledge, concerns about potential unintended consequences, and lack of sympathy for people at risk of overdose.MethodsA randomized survey experiment was conducted with a nationally-representative web-based survey research panel (GfK KnowledgePanel). Participants were randomly assigned to read different messages alone or in combination: 1) factual information about naloxone; 2) pre-emptive refutation of potential concerns about naloxone distribution; and 3) a sympathetic narrative about a mother whose daughter died of an opioid overdose. Participants were then asked if they support or oppose policies related to naloxone distribution. For each policy item, logistic regression models were used to test the effect of each message exposure compared with the no-exposure control group.ResultsThe final sample consisted of 1,598 participants (completion rate: 72.6%). Factual information and the sympathetic narrative alone each led to higher support for training first responders to use naloxone, providing naloxone to friends and family members of people using opioids, and passing laws to protect people who administer naloxone. Participants receiving the combination of the sympathetic narrative and factual information, compared to factual information alone, were more likely to support all policies: providing naloxone to friends and family members (OR: 2.0 [95% CI: 1.4 to 2.9]), training first responders to use naloxone (OR: 2.0 [95% CI: 1.2 to 3.4]), passing laws to protect people if they administer naloxone (OR: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.04 to 2.2]), and passing laws to protect people if they call for medical help for an overdose (OR: 1.7 [95% CI: 1.2 to 2.5]).ConclusionsAll messages increased public support, but combining factual information and the sympathetic narrative was most effective. Public support for naloxone distribution can be improved through education and sympathetic portrayals of the population who stands to benefit from these policies.
Project description:Childhood lead exposure has devastating lifelong consequences, as even low-level exposure stunts intelligence and leads to delinquent behavior. However, these consequences may be more extensive than previously thought because childhood lead exposure may adversely affect normal-range personality traits. Personality influences nearly every aspect of human functioning, from well-being to career earnings to longevity, so effects of lead exposure on personality would have far-reaching societal consequences. In a preregistered investigation, we tested this hypothesis by linking historic atmospheric lead data from 269 US counties and 37 European nations to personality questionnaire data from over 1.5 million people who grew up in these areas. Adjusting for age and socioeconomic status, US adults who grew up in counties with higher atmospheric lead levels had less adaptive personality profiles: they were less agreeable and conscientious and, among younger participants, more neurotic. Next, we utilized a natural experiment, the removal of leaded gasoline because of the 1970 Clean Air Act, to test whether lead exposure caused these personality differences. Participants born after atmospheric lead levels began to decline in their county had more mature, psychologically healthy adult personalities (higher agreeableness and conscientiousness and lower neuroticism), but these findings were not discriminable from pure cohort effects. Finally, we replicated associations in Europeans. European participants who spent their childhood in areas with more atmospheric lead were less agreeable and more neurotic in adulthood. Our findings suggest that further reduction of lead exposure is a critical public health issue.
Project description:PURPOSE:We provide population-based longitudinal evidence of marital status differences in the risk of cognitive impairment and dementia in the United States. METHODS:Data were from the longitudinal National Health and Aging Trends Study, 2011-2018. The sample included 7508 respondents aged 65 years and older who contributed 25,897 person-year records. We estimated discrete-time hazard models to predict the risk of dementia and cognitive impairment, not dementia (CIND), as well as impairment in three major cognitive domains: memory, orientation, and executive function. RESULTS:Relative to their married counterparts, divorced and widowed elders had higher odds of dementia and CIND, as well as higher odds of impairment in each of the cognitive domains. Never-married elders had higher odds of impairment in memory and orientation than their married counterparts but did not differ significantly in the odds of impaired executive function, dementia, or CIND. Cohabiting elders did not differ significantly from married respondents on any measure of cognitive impairment. We found no gender differences in the associations between marital status and the measures of cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS:Marital status is a potentially important but overlooked social risk/protective factor for cognitive impairment. Divorced and widowed older adults are particularly vulnerable to cognitive impairment.
Project description:Systematic approaches to epidemiologic data collection are critical for informing pandemic responses, providing information for the targeting and timing of mitigations, for judging the efficacy and efficiency of alternative response strategies, and for conducting real-world impact assessments. Here, we report on a scoping study to assess the completeness of epidemiological data available for COVID-19 pandemic management in the United States, enumerating authoritative US government estimates of parameters of infectious transmission, infection severity, and disease burden and characterizing the extent and scope of US public health affiliated epidemiological investigations published through November 2021. While we found authoritative estimates for most expected transmission and disease severity parameters, some were lacking, and others had significant uncertainties. Moreover, most transmission parameters were not validated domestically or re-assessed over the course of the pandemic. Publicly available disease surveillance measures did grow appreciably in scope and resolution over time; however, their resolution with regards to specific populations and exposure settings remained limited. We identified 283 published epidemiological reports authored by investigators affiliated with U.S. governmental public health entities. Most reported on descriptive studies. Published analytic studies did not appear to fully respond to knowledge gaps or to provide systematic evidence to support, evaluate or tailor community mitigation strategies. The existence of epidemiological data gaps 18 months after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the need for more timely standardization of data collection practices and for anticipatory research priorities and protocols for emerging infectious disease epidemics.