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Higher vaccination rates predict reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the United States.

ABSTRACT: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) began proliferating widely throughout the world in late 2019/early 2020, creating a global pandemic and health crisis. Although vaccines became available to the public approximately 1 year after the onset of the pandemic, there still remains much hesitancy surrounding vaccination. One key concern comes from reports of breakthrough infections among the vaccinated that show comparable levels of peak viral load as the unvaccinated, calling into question the ability of vaccines to prevent transmission. Therefore young, healthy individuals who are at low risk of serious complications themselves have little incentive to receive a vaccine that they are not convinced will protect others around them. To address this important concern, this study aimed to evaluate the extent to which vaccination rates are associated with reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission among the unvaccinated population. An observational study was conducted in the United States of America throughout the months of June through September, 2021. Vaccination rate and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were obtained for each state, along with a number of important control variables. Panel data regression was used to predict incidence among the unvaccinated based on each state's vaccination rate. States with a higher proportion of fully vaccinated individuals reported fewer new cases among the remaining unvaccinated population. These data add to accumulating evidence that COVID-19 vaccinations can indeed slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and are an important tool in society's arsenal to put this pandemic behind us.

SUBMITTER: Au J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8938221 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionCloth face coverings and surgical masks have become commonplace across the United States in response to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. While evidence suggests masks help curb the spread of respiratory pathogens, research is limited. Face masks have quickly become a topic of public debate as government mandates have started requiring their use. Here we investigate the association between self-reported mask wearing, social distancing and community SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States, as well as the effect of statewide mandates on mask uptake.MethodsSerial cross-sectional surveys were administered June 3 through July 27, 2020 via web platform. Surveys queried individuals' likelihood to wear a face mask to the grocery store or with family and friends. Responses (N=378,207) were aggregated by week and state and combined with measures of the instantaneous reproductive number (Rt), social distancing proxies, respondent demographics and other potential sources of confounding. We fit multivariate logistic regression models to estimate the association between mask wearing and community transmission control (Rt <1) for each state and week. Multiple sensitivity analyses were considered to corroborate findings across mask wearing definitions, Rt estimators and data sources. Additionally, mask wearing in 12 states was evaluated two weeks before and after statewide mandates.ResultsWe find an upward trend in mask usage across the U.S., although uptake varies by geography and demographic groups. A multivariate logistic model controlling for social distancing and other variables found a 10% increase in mask wearing was associated with a 3.53 (95% CI: 2.03, 6.43) odds of transmission control (Rt <1). We also find that communities with high mask wearing and social distancing have the highest predicted probability of a controlled epidemic. These positive associations were maintained across sensitivity analyses. Segmented regression analysis of mask wearing found no statistical change following mandates, however the positive trend of increased mask wearing over time was preserved.ConclusionWidespread utilization of face masks combined with social distancing increases the odds of SARS-CoV-2 transmission control. Mask wearing rose separately from government mask mandates, suggesting supplemental public health interventions are needed to maximize mask adoption and disrupt the spread of SARS-CoV-2, especially as social distancing measures are relaxed.

Project description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a viral pathogen that quickly became a global pandemic in the winter of 2020-2021. In response, governments issued social distancing orders to minimize transmission by reducing community contacts. We tested the efficacy of this social distancing at the state level during the first 2 months of the pandemic in the United States. We utilized data on daily SARS-CoV-2 case numbers and human community mobility (anonymized, aggregated cell phone location data stratified into six categories used as an index of social distancing), the date of government-issued social distancing orders, demographics, urbanization and public transportation. We implemented cross-correlation to identify lag times between declines in mobility and SARS-CoV-2 cases. Incorporating state-specific lag times, we tested for associations between case counts and mobility metrics using Bayesian multilevel models. Decreased mobility around grocery stores/pharmacies, retail/recreation locations, transit stations and workplaces was correlated with decreases in SARS-CoV-2 cases with significant lag times of ≥21 days. Social distancing orders were associated with fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 cases when they were put in place earlier. Community mobility had already started declining prior to most social distancing orders, especially the more restrictive orders implemented later in the pandemic. Social distancing is an important tool that has been implemented throughout the pandemic to decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission, although with significant social and economic impacts. Our results suggest that declines in cases were observed several weeks subsequent to implementation of social distancing measures, and that implementing social distancing earlier could potentially minimize the duration of time these policies need to be in effect. Our findings can inform ongoing management of this pandemic and other emerging infectious disease outbreaks by identifying areas where reductions in mobility are associated with reduced disease transmission, and the expected time frame between behavioural changes and measurable population outcomes.

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Higher vaccination rates predict reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the United States.

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