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A risk scoring system to predict progression to severe pneumonia in patients with Covid-19.

ABSTRACT: Rapid outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) raised major concern regarding medical resource constraints. We constructed and validated a scoring system for early prediction of progression to severe pneumonia in patients with Covid-19. A total of 561 patients from a Covid-19 designated hospital in Daegu, South Korea were randomly divided into two cohorts: development cohort (N = 421) and validation cohort (N = 140). We used multivariate logistic regression to identify four independent risk predictors for progression to severe pneumonia and constructed a risk scoring system by giving each factor a number of scores corresponding to its regression coefficient. We calculated risk scores for each patient and defined two groups: low risk (0 to 8 points) and high risk (9 to 20 points). In the development cohort, the sensitivity and specificity were 83.8% and 78.9%. In the validation cohort, the sensitivity and specificity were 70.8% and 79.3%, respectively. The C-statistics was 0.884 (95% CI 0.833-0.934) in the development cohort and 0.828 (95% CI 0.733-0.923) in the validation cohort. This risk scoring system is useful to identify high-risk group for progression to severe pneumonia in Covid-19 patients and can prevent unnecessary overuse of medical care in limited-resource settings.

SUBMITTER: Lee JY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8966605 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A risk scoring system to predict progression to severe pneumonia in patients with Covid-19.

Lee Ji Yeon JY Nam Byung-Ho BH Kim Mhinjine M Hwang Jongmin J Kim Jin Young JY Hyun Miri M Kim Hyun Ah HA Cho Chi-Heum CH

Scientific reports 20220330 1

Rapid outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) raised major concern regarding medical resource constraints. We constructed and validated a scoring system for early prediction of progression to severe pneumonia in patients with Covid-19. A total of 561 patients from a Covid-19 designated hospital in Daegu, South Korea were randomly divided into two cohorts: development cohort (N = 421) and validation cohort (N = 140). We used multivariate logistic regression to identify four independent ri ...[more]

PMID: 35354828

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Project description:BackgroundThe evolution of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still hard to predict, even after several months of dealing with the pandemic.AimsTo develop and validate a score to predict outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.MethodsAll consecutive adults hospitalized for COVID-19 from February to April 2020 were included in a nationwide observational study. Primary composite outcome was transfer to an intensive care unit from an emergency department or conventional ward, or in-hospital death. A score that estimates the risk of experiencing the primary outcome was constructed from a derivation cohort using stacked LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator), and was tested in a validation cohort.ResultsAmong 2873 patients analysed (57.9% men; 66.6±17.0 years), the primary outcome occurred in 838 (29.2%) patients: 551 (19.2%) were transferred to an intensive care unit; and 287 (10.0%) died in-hospital without transfer to an intensive care unit. Using stacked LASSO, we identified 11 variables independently associated with the primary outcome in multivariable analysis in the derivation cohort (n=2313), including demographics (sex), triage vitals (body temperature, dyspnoea, respiratory rate, fraction of inspired oxygen, blood oxygen saturation) and biological variables (pH, platelets, C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, estimated glomerular filtration rate). The Critical COVID-19 France (CCF) risk score was then developed, and displayed accurate calibration and discrimination in the derivation cohort, with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.75-0.80). The CCF risk score performed significantly better (i.e. higher C-statistics) than the usual critical care risk scores.ConclusionsThe CCF risk score was built using data collected routinely at hospital admission to predict outcomes in patients with COVID-19. This score holds promise to improve early triage of patients and allocation of healthcare resources.

Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is associated with immune dysregulation and hyperinflammation, including elevated interleukin-6 levels. The use of tocilizumab, a monoclonal antibody against the interleukin-6 receptor, has resulted in better outcomes in patients with severe Covid-19 pneumonia in case reports and retrospective observational cohort studies. Data are needed from randomized, placebo-controlled trials.MethodsIn this phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned patients who were hospitalized with severe Covid-19 pneumonia in a 2:1 ratio receive a single intravenous infusion of tocilizumab (at a dose of 8 mg per kilogram of body weight) or placebo. Approximately one quarter of the participants received a second dose of tocilizumab or placebo 8 to 24 hours after the first dose. The primary outcome was clinical status at day 28 on an ordinal scale ranging from 1 (discharged or ready for discharge) to 7 (death) in the modified intention-to-treat population, which included all the patients who had received at least one dose of tocilizumab or placebo.ResultsOf the 452 patients who underwent randomization, 438 (294 in the tocilizumab group and 144 in the placebo group) were included in the primary and secondary analyses. The median value for clinical status on the ordinal scale at day 28 was 1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 1.0) in the tocilizumab group and 2.0 (non-ICU hospitalization without supplemental oxygen) (95% CI, 1.0 to 4.0) in the placebo group (between-group difference, -1.0; 95% CI, -2.5 to 0; P = 0.31 by the van Elteren test). In the safety population, serious adverse events occurred in 103 of 295 patients (34.9%) in the tocilizumab group and in 55 of 143 patients (38.5%) in the placebo group. Mortality at day 28 was 19.7% in the tocilizumab group and 19.4% in the placebo group (weighted difference, 0.3 percentage points; 95% CI, -7.6 to 8.2; nominal P = 0.94).ConclusionsIn this randomized trial involving hospitalized patients with severe Covid-19 pneumonia, the use of tocilizumab did not result in significantly better clinical status or lower mortality than placebo at 28 days. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche and the Department of Health and Human Services; COVACTA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04320615.).

Dataset Information

A risk scoring system to predict progression to severe pneumonia in patients with Covid-19.

Publications

A risk scoring system to predict progression to severe pneumonia in patients with Covid-19.

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