Dataset Information

Modeling of the air temperature using the Extreme Value Theory for selected biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil).

ABSTRACT: This paper aims to find probabilities of extreme values of the air temperature for the Cerrado, Pantanal and Atlantic Forest biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil. In this case a maximum likelihood estimation was employed for the probability distributions fitting the extreme monthly air temperatures for 2007-2018. Using the Extreme Value Theory approach this work estimates three probability distributions: the Generalized Distribution of Extreme Values (GEV), the Gumbel (GUM) and the Log-Normal (LN). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the corrected Akaike criterion AIC _c , the Bayesian information criterion BIC, the root of the mean square error RMSE and the determination coefficient R ² were applied to measure the goodness-of-fit. The estimated distributions were used to calculate the probabilities of occurrence of maximum monthly air temperatures over 28-32 °C. Temperature predictions were done for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 30-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The GEV and GUM distributions are recommended to be used in the warmer months. In the coldest months, the LN distribution gave a better fit to a series of extreme air temperatures. Deforestation, combustion and extensive fires, and the related aerosol emissions contribute, alongside climate change, to the generation of extreme air temperatures in the studied biomes.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-022-02206-1.

SUBMITTER: Dos Reis CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8981891 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling of the air temperature using the Extreme Value Theory for selected biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil).

Dos Reis Carlos José CJ Souza Amaury A Graf Renata R Kossowski Tomasz M TM Abreu Marcel Carvalho MC de Oliveira-Júnior José Francisco JF Fernandes Widinei Alves WA

Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal 20220405 10

This paper aims to find probabilities of extreme values of the air temperature for the Cerrado, Pantanal and Atlantic Forest biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil. In this case a maximum likelihood estimation was employed for the probability distributions fitting the extreme monthly air temperatures for 2007-2018. Using the Extreme Value Theory approach this work estimates three probability distributions: the Generalized Distribution of Extreme Values (GEV), the Gumbel (GUM) and the Log-Normal ...[more]

PMID: 35401049

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on indigenous populations. Understanding the viral dynamics within this population is essential to create targeted protection measures.MethodsA total of 204 SARS-CoV-2 positive samples collected between May 2020 and November 2021 from an indigenous area in Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Midwestern Brazil, were screened. Samples were submitted to whole genome sequencing using the Nanopore sequencing platform. Clinical, demographic, and phylogenetic data were analyzed.ResultsWe found the co-circulation of six main SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the indigenous population, with the Zeta lineage being the most prevalent (27.66%), followed by B.1.1 (an ancestral strain) (20.21%), Gamma (14.36%) and Delta (13.83%). Other lineages represent 45.74% of the total. Our phylogenetic reconstruction indicates that multiple introduction events of different SARS-CoV-2 lineages occurred in the indigenous villages in MS. The estimated indigenous population mortality rate was 1.47%. Regarding the ethnicity of our cohort, 64.82% belong to the Guarani ethnicity, while 33.16% belong to the Terena ethnicity, with a slightly higher prevalence of males (53.43%) among females. Other ethnicities represent 2.01%. We also observed that almost all patients (89.55%) presented signs and symptoms related to COVID-19, being the most prevalent cough, fever, sore throat, and headache.DiscussionOur results revealed that multiple independent SARS-CoV-2 introduction events had occurred through time, probably due to indigenous mobility, since the villages studied here are close to urban areas in MS. The mortality rate was slightly below of the estimation for the state in the period studied, which we believe could be related to the small number of samples evaluated, the underreporting of cases and deaths among this population, and the inconsistency of secondary data available for this study.ConclusionIn this study, we showed the circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants in this population, which should be isolated and protected as they belong to the most fragile group due to their socioeconomic and cultural disparities. We reinforce the need for constant genomic surveillance to monitor and prevent the spread of new emerging viruses and to better understand the viral dynamics in these populations, making it possible to direct specific actions.

Dataset Information

Modeling of the air temperature using the Extreme Value Theory for selected biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil).

Supplementary information

Publications

Modeling of the air temperature using the Extreme Value Theory for selected biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul (Brazil).

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