Project description:There are multiple sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely underestimates the number of infections, and deaths lag infections substantially, while test positivity rates tend to greatly overestimate prevalence. Representative random prevalence surveys, the only putatively unbiased source, are sparse in time and space, and the results can come with big delays. Reliable estimates of population prevalence are necessary for understanding the spread of the virus and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. We develop a simple Bayesian framework to estimate viral prevalence by combining several of the main available data sources. It is based on a discrete-time Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with time-varying reproductive parameter. Our model includes likelihood components that incorporate data on deaths due to the virus, confirmed cases, and the number of tests administered on each day. We anchor our inference with data from random-sample testing surveys in Indiana and Ohio. We use the results from these two states to calibrate the model on positive test counts and proceed to estimate the infection fatality rate and the number of new infections on each day in each state in the United States. We estimate the extent to which reported COVID cases have underestimated true infection counts, which was large, especially in the first months of the pandemic. We explore the implications of our results for progress toward herd immunity.
Project description:ObjectivesTo assess total antibody levels against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) spike protein up to 12 months after Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) infection in non-vaccinated individuals and the possible predictors of antibody persistence.MethodsThis is the first part of a prospective multi-centre cohort study.ParticipantsThe study included SARS-CoV-2 real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positive and negative participants in South-Eastern Norway from February to December 2020. Possible predictors of SARS-CoV-2 total antibody persistence was assessed. The SARS-CoV-2 total antibody levels against spike protein were measured three to five months after PCR in 391 PCR-positive and 703 PCR-negative participants; 212 PCR-positive participants were included in follow-up measurements at 10 to 12 months. The participants completed a questionnaire including information about symptoms, comorbidities, allergies, body mass index (BMI), and hospitalisation.Primary outcomeThe SARS-CoV-2 total antibody levels against spike protein three to five and 10 to 12 months after PCR positive tests.ResultsSARS-CoV-2 total antibodies against spike protein were present in 366 (94%) non-vaccinated PCR-positive participants after three to five months, compared with nine (1%) PCR-negative participants. After 10 to 12 months, antibodies were present in 204 (96%) non-vaccinated PCR-positive participants. Of the PCR-positive participants, 369 (94%) were not hospitalised. The mean age of the PCR-positive participants was 48 years (SD 15, range 20-85) and 50% of them were male. BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 was positively associated with decreased antibody levels (OR 2.34, 95% CI 1.06 to 5.42). Participants with higher age and self-reported initial fever with chills or sweating were less likely to have decreased antibody levels (age: OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.99; fever: OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.75).ConclusionOur results indicate that the level of SARS-CoV-2 total antibodies against spike protein persists for the vast majority of non-vaccinated PCR-positive persons at least 10 to 12 months after mild COVID-19.
Project description:The duration of the humoral immune response in children infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is unknown. We detected specific IgG 6 months after infection in children who were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms of coronavirus disease. These findings will inform vaccination strategies and other prevention measures.
Project description:Accumulating evidence supports the high prevalence of co-infections among Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) patients, and their potential to worsen the clinical outcome of COVID-19. However, there are few data on Southern Hemisphere populations, and most studies to date have investigated a narrow spectrum of viruses using targeted qRT-PCR. Here we assessed respiratory viral co-infections among SARS-CoV-2 patients in Australia, through respiratory virome characterization. Nasopharyngeal swabs of 92 SARS-CoV-2-positive cases were sequenced using pan-viral hybrid-capture and the Twist Respiratory Virus Panel. In total, 8% of cases were co-infected, with rhinovirus (6%) or influenzavirus (2%). Twist capture also achieved near-complete sequencing (> 90% coverage, > tenfold depth) of the SARS-CoV-2 genome in 95% of specimens with Ct < 30. Our results highlight the importance of assessing all pathogens in symptomatic patients, and the dual-functionality of Twist hybrid-capture, for SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequencing without amplicon generation and the simultaneous identification of viral co-infections with ease.
Project description:Convalescent sera of RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 confirmed hospitalised patients were tested on the protein array to profile IgG, IgM, and IgA antibody levels against human coronaviruses.
Project description:The pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has continued, with the persistent emergence of variants of concern (VOCs). Therefore, this study aimed to track the genomic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 strains by sequencing the spike protein for 29 months, which accounted for the majority of the COVID-19 pandemic period. A total of 109 swabs from patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection were randomly collected between March 2020 and July 2022. After genomic sequencing, we analyzed the naming systems and phylogenetic trees. Five surge peaks of COVID-19 cases have been reported in South Korea, resulting in 14,000,000 cumulative confirmed cases and 17,000 deaths. Among the sequenced samples, 34 wild-type strains and 75 VOCs, including 4 Alpha, 33 Delta, 2 Epsilon, and 36 Omicron VOCs, were identified. Omicron strains were comprised of 8 BA.1.1 (21 K), 27 BA.2 (21 L), and 1 BA.2.12.1 (22C). Phylogenetic analysis of the identified isolates and representative sequences of SARS-CoV-2 strains revealed clusters that presented the WHO VOCs. Specific or unique mutations for each VOC waxed and waned according to the variant waves. Our findings allowed recognition of the overall trends of SARS-CoV-2 isolates, which implicated replication advantage, immune evasion, and disease management.
Project description:Epidemiologic and genomic investigation of SARS-CoV-2 infections associated with 2 repatriation flights from India to Australia in April 2021 indicated that 4 passengers transmitted SARS-CoV-2 to >11 other passengers. Results suggest transmission despite mandatory mask use and predeparture testing. For subsequent flights, predeparture quarantine and expanded predeparture testing were implemented.
Project description:IntroductionChildren are less likely to acquire SARS-CoV-2 infections than adults and when infected, usually have milder disease. True infection and complication rates are, however, difficult to ascertain. In Iceland, a strict test, trace and isolate policy was maintained from the start of the pandemic and offers more accurate information of the number of truly infected children in a nationwide study.Material and methodsAll children with positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2 infections from February 28, 2020 to August 31, 2021 were followed up through telephone consultations for at least 14 days and their symptoms were registered. Symptom severity and duration were categorized based on age groups and the source of infection was registered.ResultsA total of 1749 children were infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 3 waves of infections. All waves had similar disease severity whereas the incidence was 5-fold higher in the third wave (3.5 vs. 0.73/1000 children/month). No children had severe symptoms, 81 (4.6%) had moderate symptoms, 1287 (73.9%) had mild and 374 (21.5%) were asymptomatic. Symptoms from upper (n = 839, 48%) and lower respiratory tract (n = 744, 43%) were most common. Median duration of symptoms was 5 days and adolescents had a higher risk of prolonged duration [OR:1.84 (1.39-2.43)]. Nineteen (1.1%) children needed medical attention, but no child was hospitalized. The source of infection was a household member in 65% of cases.DiscussionDuring the first 3 waves of the pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 infections in Icelandic children were mild and none were hospitalized. The most common symptoms were respiratory symptoms followed by fever, headache and tiredness. This study helps shed light on true complication rates of children with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Project description:BackgroundDuring October 2020, Delta variant was detected for the first time in India and rampantly spread across the globe. It also led to second wave of pandemic in India which affected millions of people. However, there is limited information pertaining to the SARS-CoV-2 strain infecting the children in India.MethodsHere, we assessed the SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the pediatric population of India during the second wave of the pandemic. Clinical and demographic details linked with the nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs (NPS/OPS) collected from SARS-CoV-2 cases (n = 583) aged 0-18 year and tested positive by real-time RT-PCR were retrieved from March to June 2021.ResultsSymptoms were reported among 37.2% of patients and 14.8% reported to be hospitalized. The E gene CT value had significant statistical difference at the point of sample collection when compared to that observed in the sequencing laboratory. Out of these 512 sequences 372 were VOCs, 51 were VOIs. Most common lineages observed were Delta, followed by Kappa, Alpha and B.1.36, seen in 65.82%, 9.96%, 6.83% and 4.68%, respectively in the study population.ConclusionOverall, it was observed that Delta strain was the leading cause of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Indian children during the second wave of the pandemic. We emphasize on the need of continuous genomic surveillance in SARS-CoV-2 infection even amongst children.
Project description:Breakthrough infections following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination remain the global concern. The current study was conducted during the second wave of COVID-19 (1st March-7th July 2021) in Pune, India, at two tertiary care hospitals. Of the 6,159 patients diagnosed as COVID-19, 372/2,210 (16.8%) were breakthrough infections. Of these, 81.1 and 18.8% received one or two doses of Covishield or Covaxin, respectively. Of note, 30.7% patients were with comorbidities, hypertension being the commonest (12.44%). The majority of infections were mild (81.2%). Forty-three patients with breakthrough infections were hospitalized with severe (n = 27, 62.8%) or moderate (n = 16, 37.2%) disease. The receptor binding domain (RBD) sequences from vaccinated (n = 126) and non-vaccinated (n = 168) samples were used for variant analysis. The delta variant was predominant followed by kappa in both vaccinated and non-vaccinated groups. Viral load (qRT-PCR) was not different among these categories. Full-genome comparisons of sequences in relation to vaccination status did not identify any mutation characteristic of the vaccinated group. Irrespective of the number of doses, neutralizing antibody titers (PRNT50) during the first week of clinical disease were higher in the vaccinated patients than the unvaccinated category. In conclusion, though not completely, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines used for country-wide immunization did reduce disease severity among the individuals without any comorbidity by inducing rapid immune response against distinctly different delta and kappa variants. The utility against emerging variants with further mutations need to be carefully examined.