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De-escalation of asymptomatic testing and potential of future COVID-19 outbreaks in US nursing homes amidst rising community vaccination coverage: A modeling study.

ABSTRACT: As of 2 September 2021, United States nursing homes have reported >675,000 COVID-19 cases and >134,000 deaths according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). More than 205,000,000 persons in the United States had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine (62% of total population) as of 2 September 2021. We investigate the role of vaccination in controlling future COVID-19 outbreaks. We developed a stochastic, compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a 100-bed nursing home with a staff of 99 healthcare personnel (HCP) in a community of 20,000 people. We parameterized admission and discharge of residents in the model with CMS data, for a within-facility basic reproduction number (R₀) of 3.5 and a community R₀ of 2.5. The model also included: importation of COVID-19 from the community, isolation of SARS-CoV-2 positive residents, facility-wide adherence to personal protective equipment (PPE) use by HCP, and testing. We systematically varied coverage of mRNA vaccine among residents, HCP, and the community. Simulations were run for 6 months after the second dose in the facility, with results summarized over 1,000 simulations. Expected resident cases decreased as community vaccination increased, with large reductions at high HCP coverage. The probability of a COVID-19 outbreak was lower as well: at HCP vaccination coverage of 60%, probability of an outbreak was below 20% for community coverage of 50% or above. At high coverage, stopping asymptomatic screening and facility-wide testing yielded similar results. Results suggest that high coverage among HCP and in the community can prevent infections in residents. When vaccination is high in nursing homes, but not in their surrounding communities, asymptomatic and facility-wide testing remains necessary to prevent the spread of COVID-19. High adherence to PPE may increase the likelihood of containing future COVID-19 outbreaks if they occur.

SUBMITTER: Singh BK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9013672 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceStaff absences and departures at nursing homes may put residents at risk and present operational challenges.ObjectiveTo quantify changes in nursing home facility staffing during and after a severe COVID-19 outbreak.Design setting and participantsIn this cohort study, daily staffing payroll data were used to construct weekly measures of facility staffing, absences, departures, and use of overtime and contract staff among US nursing homes experiencing a severe COVID-19 outbreak that started between June 14, 2020, and January 1, 2021. Facility outbreaks were identified using COVID-19 case data. An event-study design with facility and week fixed effects was used to investigate the association of severe outbreaks with staffing measures.ExposuresWeeks since the beginning of a severe COVID-19 outbreak (4 weeks prior to 16 weeks after).Main outcomes and measuresTotal weekly staffing hours, staff counts, staff absences, departures, new hires, overtime and contract staff hours measured for all nursing staff and separately by staff type (registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, certified nursing assistants), facility self-reported staff shortages, and resident deaths.ResultsOf the included 2967 nursing homes experiencing severe COVID-19 outbreaks, severe outbreaks were associated with a statistically significant drop in nursing staffing levels owing to elevated absences and departures. Four weeks after an outbreak's start, around when average new cases peaked, staffing hours were 2.6% (95% CI, 2.1%-3.2%) of the mean below preoutbreak levels, despite facilities taking substantial measures to bolster staffing through increased hiring and the use of contract staff and overtime. Because these measures were mostly temporary, staffing declined further in later weeks; 16 weeks after an outbreak's start, staffing hours were 5.5% (95% CI, 4.5%-6.5%) of the mean below preoutbreak levels. Staffing declines were greatest among certified nursing assistants, primarily owing to smaller increases in new hires of this staff type compared with licensed practical nurses and registered nurses.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of nursing homes experiencing severe COVID-19 outbreaks, facilities experienced considerable staffing challenges during and after outbreaks. These results suggest the need for policy action to ensure facilities' abilities to maintain adequate staffing levels during and after infectious disease outbreaks.

Project description:BackgroundThe severity of COVID-19, as well as the speed and scale of its spread, has posed a global challenge. Countries around the world have implemented stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to control transmission and prevent health systems from being overwhelmed. These NPI have had profound negative social and economic impacts. With the timeline to worldwide vaccine roll-out being uncertain, governments need to consider to what extent they need to implement and how to de-escalate these NPI. This rapid review collates de-escalation criteria reported in the literature to provide a guide to criteria that could be used as part of de-escalation strategies globally.MethodsWe reviewed literature published since 2000 relating to pandemics and infectious disease outbreaks. The searches included Embase.com (includes Embase and Medline), LitCovid, grey literature searching, reference harvesting and citation tracking. Over 1,700 documents were reviewed, with 39 documents reporting de-escalation criteria included in the final analysis. Concepts retrieved through a thematic analysis of the included documents were interlinked to build a conceptual dynamic de-escalation framework.ResultsWe identified 52 de-escalation criteria, the most common of which were clustered under surveillance (cited by 43 documents, 10 criteria e.g. ability to actively monitor confirmed cases and contact tracing), health system capacity (cited by 30 documents, 11 criteria, e.g. ability to treat all patients within normal capacity) and epidemiology (cited by 28 documents, 7 criteria, e.g. number or changes in case numbers). De-escalation is a gradual and bi-directional process, and resurgence of infections or emergence of variants of concerns can lead to partial or full re-escalation(s) of response and control measures in place. Hence, it is crucial to rely on a robust public health surveillance system.ConclusionsThis rapid review focusing on de-escalation within the context of COVID-19 provides a conceptual framework and a guide to criteria that countries can use to formulate de-escalation plans.

Project description:Candida auris is a human fungal pathogen classified as an urgent threat to the delivery of health care due to its extensive antimicrobial resistance and the high mortality rates associated with invasive infections. Global outbreaks have occurred in health care facilities, particularly, long-term care hospitals and nursing homes. Skin is the primary site of colonization for C. auris. To accelerate research studies, we developed microbiome sequencing protocols, including amplicon and metagenomic sequencing, directly from patient samples at health care facilities with ongoing C. auris outbreaks. We characterized the skin mycobiome with a database optimized to classify Candida species and C. auris to the clade level. While Malassezia species were the predominant skin-associated fungi, nursing home residents also harbored Candida species, including C. albicans, and C. parapsilosis. Amplicon sequencing was concordant with culturing studies to identify C. auris-colonized patients and provided further resolution that distinct clades of C. auris are colonizing facilities in New York and Illinois. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing from a clinical sample with a high fungal bioburden generated a skin-associated profile of the C. auris genome. Future larger scale clinical studies are warranted to more systematically investigate the effects of commensal microbes and patient risk factors on the colonization and transmission of C. auris. IMPORTANCE Candida auris is a human pathogen of high concern due to its extensive antifungal drug resistance and high mortality rates associated with invasive infections. Candida auris skin colonization and persistence on environmental surfaces make this pathogen difficult to control once it enters a health care facility. Residents in long-term care hospitals and nursing homes are especially vulnerable. In this study, we developed microbiome sequencing protocols directly from surveillance samples, including amplicon and metagenomic sequencing, demonstrating concordance between sequencing results and culturing.

Project description:BackgroundTo evaluate how a national policy of testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) regardless of symptoms was implemented during outbreaks in Dutch nursing homes in the second wave of the pandemic and to explore barriers and facilitators to serial testing.MethodsWe conducted a mixed-method study of nursing homes in the Netherlands with a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak after 15 September 2020. Direct care staff and management from 355 healthcare organizations were invited to participate in a digital survey. A total of 74 out of 355 (20.9%) healthcare organizations participated and provided information about 117 nursing homes. We conducted 26 in-depth interviews on the outbreak and the testing strategy used. We also conducted four focus group meetings involving managers, physicians, nurses, and certified health assistants. Recordings were transcribed and data were thematically analyzed.ResultsOne hundred and four nursing homes (89%) tested residents regardless of their symptoms during the outbreak, and 85 nursing homes (73%) tested the staff regardless of their symptoms. However, interviews showed testing was sometimes implemented during later stages of the outbreak and was not always followed up with serial testing. Barriers to serial testing regardless of symptoms were lack of knowledge of local leaders with decisional making authority, lack of a cohort ward or skilled staff, and insufficient collaboration with laboratories or local public health services. Important facilitators to serial testing were staff willingness to undergo testing and the availability of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests.ConclusionsSerial testing regardless of symptoms was only partially implemented. The response rate of 21% of nursing home organizations gives a risk of selection bias. Barriers to testing need to be addressed. A national implementation policy that promotes collaboration between public health services and nursing homes and educates management and care staff is necessary.

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De-escalation of asymptomatic testing and potential of future COVID-19 outbreaks in US nursing homes amidst rising community vaccination coverage: A modeling study.

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