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An infodemiological framework for tracking the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using integrated public data.

ABSTRACT: The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus has caused a health crisis of immeasurable magnitude. Signals from heterogeneous public data sources could serve as early predictors for infection waves of the pandemic, particularly in its early phases, when infection data was scarce. In this article, we characterize temporal pandemic indicators by leveraging an integrated set of public data and apply them to a Prophet model to predict COVID-19 trends. An effective natural language processing pipeline was first built to extract time-series signals of specific articles from a news corpus. Bursts of these temporal signals were further identified with Kleinberg's burst detection algorithm. Across different US states, correlations for Google Trends of COVID-19 related terms, COVID-19 news volume, and publicly available wastewater SARS-CoV-2 measurements with weekly COVID-19 case numbers were generally high with lags ranging from 0 to 3 weeks, indicating them as strong predictors of viral spread. Incorporating time-series signals of these effective predictors significantly improved the performance of the Prophet model, which was able to predict the COVID-19 case numbers between one and two weeks with average mean absolute error rates of 0.38 and 0.46 respectively across different states.

SUBMITTER: Liu Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9040481 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An infodemiological framework for tracking the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using integrated public data.

Liu Zhimin Z Jiang Zuodong Z Kip Geoffrey G Snigdha Kirti K Xu Jennings J Wu Xiaoying X Khan Najat N Schultz Timothy T

Pattern recognition letters 20220426

The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus has caused a health crisis of immeasurable magnitude. Signals from heterogeneous public data sources could serve as early predictors for infection waves of the pandemic, particularly in its early phases, when infection data was scarce. In this article, we characterize temporal pandemic indicators by leveraging an integrated set of public data and apply them to a Prophet model to predict COVID-19 trends. An effective natural language processing pip ...[more]

PMID: 35496673

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Society always has limited resources to expend on health care, or anything else. What are the unmet medical needs? How do we allocate limited resources to maximize the health and welfare of the people? These challenging questions might be re-examined systematically within an infodemiological frame on a much larger scale, leveraging the latest advancement in information technology and data science. OBJECTIVE:We expanded our previous work by investigating news media data to reveal the coverage of different diseases and medical conditions, together with their sentiments and topics in news articles over three decades. We were motivated to do so since news media plays a significant role in politics and affects the public policy making. METHODS:We analyzed over 3.5 million archive news articles from Reuters media during the periods of 1996/1997, 2008 and 2016, using summary statistics, sentiment analysis, and topic modeling. Summary statistics illustrated the coverage of various diseases and medical conditions during the last 3 decades. Sentiment analysis and topic modeling helped us automatically detect the sentiments of news articles (ie, positive versus negative) and topics (ie, a series of keywords) associated with each disease over time. RESULTS:The percentages of news articles mentioning diseases and medical conditions were 0.44%, 0.57% and 0.81% in the three time periods, suggesting that news media or the public has gradually increased its interests in medicine since 1996. Certain diseases such as other malignant neoplasm (34%), other infectious diseases (20%), and influenza (11%) represented the most covered diseases. Two hundred and twenty-six diseases and medical conditions (97.8%) were found to have neutral or negative sentiments in the news articles. Using topic modeling, we identified meaningful topics on these diseases and medical conditions. For instance, the smoking theme appeared in the news articles on other malignant neoplasm only during 1996/1997. The topic phrases HIV and Zika virus were linked to other infectious diseases during 1996/1997 and 2016, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The multi-dimensional analysis of news media data allows the discovery of focus, sentiments and topics of news media in terms of diseases and medical conditions. These infodemiological discoveries could shed light on unmet medical needs and research priorities for future and provide guidance for the decision making in public policy.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough an increasing body of data reports the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in air, this does not correlate to the presence of infectious viruses, thus not evaluating the risk for airborne COVID-19. Hence there is a marked knowledge gap that requires urgent attention. Therefore, in this systematic review, viability/stability of airborne SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV viruses is discussed.MethodsA systematic literature review was performed on PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Science and Scopus to assess the stability and viability of SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 on air samples.Results and discussionThe initial search identified 27 articles. Following screening of titles and abstracts and removing duplicates, 11 articles were considered relevant. Temperatures ranging from 20 °C to 25 °C and relative humidity ranging from 40% to 50% were reported to have a protective effect on viral viability for airborne SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. As no data is yet available on the conditions influencing viability for airborne SARS-CoV-2, and given the genetic similarity to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, one could extrapolate that the same conditions would apply. Nonetheless, the effect of these conditions seems to be residual considering the increasing number of cases in the south of USA, Brazil and India, where high temperatures and humidities have been observed.ConclusionHigher temperatures and high relative humidity can have a modest effect on SARS-CoV-2 viability in the environment, as reported in previous studies to this date. However, these studies are experimental, and do not support the fact that the virus has efficiently spread in the tropical regions of the globe, with other transmission routes such as the contact and droplet ones probably being responsible for the majority of cases reported in these regions, along with other factors such as human mobility patterns and contact rates. Further studies are needed to investigate the extent of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 as this would have important implications for public health and infection-control policies.

Dataset Information

An infodemiological framework for tracking the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using integrated public data.

Publications

An infodemiological framework for tracking the spread of SARS-CoV-2 using integrated public data.

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