Dataset Information

Time-series cohort study to forecast emergency department visits in the city of Milan and predict high demand: a 2-day warning system.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

The emergency department (ED) is one of the most critical areas in any hospital. Recently, many countries have seen a rise in the number of ED visits, with an increase in length of stay and a detrimental effect on quality of care. Being able to forecast future demands would be a valuable support for hospitals to prevent high demand, particularly in a system with limited resources where use of ED services for non-urgent visits is an important issue.

Design

Time-series cohort study.

Setting

We collected all ED visits between January 2014 and December 2019 in the five larger hospitals in Milan. To predict daily volumes, we used a regression model with autoregressive integrated moving average errors. Predictors included were day of the week and year-round seasonality, meteorological and environmental variables, information on influenza epidemics and festivities. Accuracy of prediction was evaluated with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Primary outcome measures

Daily all-cause EDs visits.

Results

In the study period, we observed 2 223 479 visits. ED visits were most likely to occur on weekends for children and on Mondays for adults and seniors. Results confirmed the role of meteorological and environmental variables and the presence of day of the week and year-round seasonality effects. We found high correlation between observed and predicted values with a MAPE globally smaller than 8.1%.

Conclusions

Results were used to establish an ED warning system based on past observations and indicators of high demand. This is important in any health system that regularly faces scarcity of resources, and it is crucial in a system where use of ED services for non-urgent visits is still high.

SUBMITTER: Murtas R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9045060 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Time-series cohort study to forecast emergency department visits in the city of Milan and predict high demand: a 2-day warning system.

Murtas Rossella R Tunesi Sara S Andreano Anita A Russo Antonio Giampiero AG

BMJ open 20220426 4

<h4>Objectives</h4>The emergency department (ED) is one of the most critical areas in any hospital. Recently, many countries have seen a rise in the number of ED visits, with an increase in length of stay and a detrimental effect on quality of care. Being able to forecast future demands would be a valuable support for hospitals to prevent high demand, particularly in a system with limited resources where use of ED services for non-urgent visits is an important issue.<h4>Design</h4>Time-series co ...[more]

PMID: 35473738

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Project description:BackgroundRelatively few studies have been conducted of the association between air pollution and emergency department (ED) visits, and most of these have been based on a small number of visits, for a limited number of health conditions and pollutants, and only daily measures of exposure and response.MethodsA time-series analysis was conducted on nearly 400,000 ED visits to 14 hospitals in seven Canadian cities during the 1990 s and early 2000s. Associations were examined between carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter (PM 10 and PM2.5), and visits for angina/myocardial infarction, heart failure, dysrhythmia/conduction disturbance, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and respiratory infections. Daily and 3-hourly visit counts were modeled as quasi-Poisson and analyses controlled for effects of temporal cycles, weather, day of week and holidays.Results24-hour average concentrations of CO and NO2 lag 0 days exhibited the most consistent associations with cardiac conditions (2.1% (95% CI, 0.0-4.2%) and 2.6% (95% CI, 0.2-5.0%) increase in visits for myocardial infarction/angina per 0.7 ppm CO and 18.4 ppb NO2 respectively; 3.8% (95% CI, 0.7-6.9%) and 4.7% (95% CI, 1.2-8.4%) increase in visits for heart failure). Ozone (lag 2 days) was most consistently associated with respiratory visits (3.2% (95% CI, 0.3-6.2%), and 3.7% (95% CI, -0.5-7.9%) increases in asthma and COPD visits respectively per 18.4 ppb). Associations tended to be of greater magnitude during the warm season (April - September). In particular, the associations of PM 10 and PM2.5 with asthma visits were respectively nearly three- and over fourfold larger vs. all year analyses (14.4% increase in visits, 95% CI, 0.2-30.7, per 20.6 microg/m3 PM 10 and 7.6% increase in visits, 95% CI, 5.1-10.1, per 8.2 microg/m3 PM2.5). No consistent associations were observed between three hour average pollutant concentrations and same-day three hour averages of ED visits.ConclusionIn this large multicenter analysis, daily average concentrations of CO and NO2 exhibited the most consistent associations with ED visits for cardiac conditions, while ozone exhibited the most consistent associations with visits for respiratory conditions. PM 10 and PM2.5 were strongly associated with asthma visits during the warm season.

Project description:Background and objectivesIn 2011, there were approximately 131 million visits to an emergency department in the United States. Emergency department visits have increased over time, far outpacing growth of the general population. There is a paucity of data evaluating emergency department visits among kidney transplant recipients. We sought to evaluate the incidence and risk factors for emergency department visits after initial hospital discharge after transplantation in the United States.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe identified 10,533 kidney transplant recipients from California, New York, and Florida between 2009 and 2012 using the State Inpatient and Emergency Department Databases included in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. We used multivariable Poisson and Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate adjusted incidence rates and time to emergency department visits after transplantation.ResultsThere were 17,575 emergency department visits over 13,845 follow-up years (overall rate =126.9/100 patient-years; 95% confidence interval, 125.1 to 128.8). The cumulative incidences of emergency department visits at 1, 12, and 24 months were 12%, 40%, and 57%, respectively, with median time =19 months; 48% of emergency department visits led to hospital admission. Risk factors for higher emergency department rates included younger age, women, black and Hispanic race/ethnicity, public insurance, depression, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and emergency department use before transplant. There was wide variation in emergency department visits by individual transplant center (10th percentile =70.0/100 patient-years; median =124.6/100 patient-years; and 90th percentile =187.4/100 patient-years).ConclusionsThe majority of kidney transplant recipients will visit an emergency department in the first 2 years post-transplantation, with significant variation by patient characteristics and individual centers. As such, coordination of care through the emergency department is a critical component of post-transplant management, and specific acumen of transplant-related care is needed among emergency department providers. Additional research assessing best processes of care for post-transplant management and health care expenditures and outcomes associated with emergency department visits for transplant recipients are warranted.

Dataset Information

Time-series cohort study to forecast emergency department visits in the city of Milan and predict high demand: a 2-day warning system.

Objectives

Design

Setting

Primary outcome measures

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Time-series cohort study to forecast emergency department visits in the city of Milan and predict high demand: a 2-day warning system.

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