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PM10 and Other Climatic Variables Are Important Predictors of Seasonal Variability of Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona.

ABSTRACT: Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a disease caused by the fungal pathogens Coccidioides immitis and Coccidioides posadasii that are endemic to the southwestern United States and parts of Mexico and South America. Throughout the range where the pathogens are endemic, there are seasonal patterns of infection rates that are associated with certain climatic variables. Previous studies that looked at annual and monthly relationships of coccidioidomycosis and climate suggest that infection numbers are linked with precipitation and temperature fluctuations; however, these analytic methods may miss important nonlinear, nonmonotonic seasonal relationships between the response (Valley fever cases) and explanatory variables (climate) influencing disease outbreaks. To improve our current knowledge and to retest relationships, we used case data from three counties of high endemicity in southern Arizona paired with climate data to construct a generalized additive statistical model that explores which meteorological parameters are most useful in predicting Valley fever incidence throughout the year. We then use our model to forecast the pattern of Valley fever cases by month. Our model shows that maximum monthly temperature, average PM10, and total precipitation 1 month prior to reported cases (lagged model) were all significant in predicting Valley fever cases. Our model fits Valley fever case data in the region of endemicity of southern Arizona and captures the seasonal relationships that predict when the public is at higher risk of being infected. This study builds on and retests relationships described by previous studies regarding climate variables that are important for predicting risk of infection and understanding this fungal pathogen. IMPORTANCE The inhalation of environmental infectious propagules from the fungal pathogens Coccidioides immitis and Coccidioides posadasii by susceptible mammals can result in coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever). Arizona is known to be a region where the pathogen is hyperendemic, and reported cases are increasing throughout the western United States. Coccidioides spp. are naturally occurring fungi in arid soils. Little is known about ecological factors that influence the growth of these fungi, and a higher environmental burden may result in increases in human exposure and therefore case rates. By examining case and climate data from Arizona and using generalized additive statistical models, we were able to examine the relationship between disease outbreaks and climatic variables and predict seasonal time points of increased infection risk.

SUBMITTER: Kollath DR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9045372 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Season and location have previously been shown to be associated with differences in the microbiota of raw milk, especially in milk from pasture-based systems. Here, we further advance research in this area by examining differences in the raw milk microbiota from several locations across Ireland over 12 months, and by investigating microbiota associations with climatic variables and chemical composition. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing was used to investigate the microbiota of raw milk collected from nine locations (n = 241). Concurrent chemical analysis of the protein, fat, lactose, total solids, nonprotein nitrogen contents, and titratable acidity (TA) of the same raw milk were performed. Although the raw milk microbiota was highly diverse, a core microbiota was found, with Pseudomonas_E, Lactococcus, Acinetobacter, and Leuconostoc present in all samples. Microbiota diversity significantly differed by season and location, with differences in seasonality and geography corresponding to 11.8% and 10.5% of the variation in the microbiota. Functional and antibiotic resistance profiles also varied across season and location. The analysis of other metadata revealed additional interactions, such as an association between mean daily air and grass temperatures with the abundance of spoilage taxa like Pseudomonas species. Correlations were identified between pathogenic, mastitis-related species, fat content, and the number of sun hours, suggesting a seasonal effect. Ultimately, this study expands our understanding of the interconnected nature of the microbiota, environment/climate variables, and chemical composition of raw milk and provides evidence of a season- and location-specific microbiota.ImportanceThe microbiota of raw milk is influenced by many factors that encourage or prevent the introduction and growth of both beneficial and undesirable microorganisms. The seasonal and geographical impacts on the microbial communities of raw milk have been previously seen, but the relationships with environmental factors and the chemical composition has yet to be investigated. In this year-long study, we found that while raw milk is highly diverse, a core microbiota was detected for Irish raw milk, with strong evidence of seasonal and geographical influence. We also found associations between groups of microorganisms, environmental factors, and milk composition, which expand current knowledge on the relationships between microbial and chemical composition and the climate. These results provide evidence for the development of a tool to allow for the prediction of raw milk quality and safety.

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PM10 and Other Climatic Variables Are Important Predictors of Seasonal Variability of Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona.

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