Dataset Information

Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation.

ABSTRACT: The Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) sustains billions of people living in many developing countries covering West Africa and Asia, vulnerable to climate change. Future increase in AfroASM precipitation has been projected by current state-of-the-art climate models, but large inter-model spread exists. Here we show that the projection spread is related to present-day interhemispheric thermal contrast (ITC). Based on 30 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find models with a larger ITC trend during 1981-2014 tend to project a greater precipitation increase. Since most models overestimate present-day ITC trends, emergent constraint indicates precipitation increase in constrained projection is reduced to 70% of the raw projection, with the largest reduction in West Africa (49%). The land area experiencing significant increases of precipitation (runoff) is 57% (66%) of the raw projection. Smaller increases of precipitation will likely reduce flooding risk, while posing a challenge to future water resources management.

SUBMITTER: Chen Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9090792 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation.

Chen Ziming Z Zhou Tianjun T Chen Xiaolong X Zhang Wenxia W Zhang Lixia L Wu Mingna M Zou Liwei L

Nature communications 20220510 1

The Afro-Asian summer monsoon (AfroASM) sustains billions of people living in many developing countries covering West Africa and Asia, vulnerable to climate change. Future increase in AfroASM precipitation has been projected by current state-of-the-art climate models, but large inter-model spread exists. Here we show that the projection spread is related to present-day interhemispheric thermal contrast (ITC). Based on 30 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find mode ...[more]

PMID: 35538080

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Project description:The past Asian precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) records from stalagmites and other deposits have shown significant orbital-scale variations, but their climatic implications and regional differences are still not fully understood. This study, as the first attempt of a 300-kyr transient stable isotope-enabled simulation, investigated the characteristics and mechanisms of the orbital-scale δ18Op variations in three representative regions of Asia: arid Central Asia (CA), monsoonal South Asia (SA) and monsoonal East Asia (EA). The modelling results showed that the variations in the CA, SA and EA annual δ18Op exhibited significant but asynchronous 23-kyr precession cycles. Further analyses revealed that although the precession-induced insolation variation was the ultimate cause of the δ18Op variation in all three regions, the dominant mechanisms and the involved physical processes were distinct among them. For the CA region, the rainy-season (November-March) temperature effect and water vapour transport by the westerly circulation were identified as the key precession-scale processes linking the October-February boreal mid-latitude insolation to the rainy-season or annual δ18Op. In the SA region, the rainy-season (June-September) precipitation amount effect and upstream depletion of the monsoonal water vapour δ18O served as the main mechanisms linking the rainy-season or annual δ18Op to the April-July insolation variation at the precession scale. For the EA region, however, the precession-scale annual δ18Op was mainly controlled by the late-monsoon (August-September) and pre-monsoon (April-May) water vapour transport patterns, which were driven by the July-August insolation and the global ice volume, respectively. These results suggest that the climatic implications of the orbital-scale Asia δ18Op variations are sensitive to their geographic locations as determined by the combined effects of insolation and regional circulation patterns associated with the respective rainy seasons. This study provides new insights into understanding the regional differences and formation mechanisms of the Asian orbital-scale δ18Op variations.

Dataset Information

Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation.

Publications

Observationally constrained projection of Afro-Asian monsoon precipitation.

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