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Estimation of vaccine efficacy for variants that emerge after the placebo group is vaccinated.

ABSTRACT: SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve and the vaccine efficacy against variants is challenging to estimate. It is now common in phase III vaccine trials to provide vaccine to those randomized to placebo once efficacy has been demonstrated, precluding a direct assessment of placebo controlled vaccine efficacy after placebo vaccination. In this work, we extend methods developed for estimating vaccine efficacy post placebo vaccination to allow variant specific time varying vaccine efficacy, where time is measured since vaccination. The key idea is to infer counterfactual strain specific placebo case counts by using surveillance data that provide the proportions of the different strains. This blending of clinical trial and observational data allows estimation of strain-specific time varying vaccine efficacy, or sieve effects, including for strains that emerge after placebo vaccination. The key requirements are that the surveillance strain distribution accurately reflects the strain distribution for a placebo group throughout follow-up after placebo group vaccination, and that at least one strain is present before and after placebo vaccination. For illustration, we develop a Poisson approach for an idealized design under a rare disease assumption and then use a proportional hazards model to address staggered entry, staggered crossover, and smoothly varying strain specific vaccine efficacy. We evaluate these methods by theoretical work and simulations, and demonstrate that useful estimation of the efficacy profile is possible for strains that emerge after vaccination of the placebo group. An important principle is to incorporate sensitivity analyses to guard against misspecification of the strain distribution.

SUBMITTER: Follmann D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9111090 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundBCG vaccination provides incomplete protection against tuberculosis in infants. A new vaccine, modified Vaccinia Ankara virus expressing antigen 85A (MVA85A), was designed to enhance the protective efficacy of BCG. We aimed to assess safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of MVA85A against tuberculosis and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in infants.MethodsIn our double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 2b trial, we enrolled healthy infants (aged 4–6 months) without HIV infection who had previously received BCG vaccination. We randomly allocated infants (1:1), according to an independently generated sequence with block sizes of four, to receive one intradermal dose of MVA85A or an equal volume of Candida skin test antigen as placebo at a clinical facility in a rural region near Cape Town, South Africa. We actively followed up infants every 3 months for up to 37 months. The primary study outcome was safety (incidence of adverse and serious adverse events) in all vaccinated participants, but we also assessed efficacy in a protocol-defined group of participants who received at least one dose of allocated vaccine. The primary efficacy endpoint was incident tuberculosis incorporating microbiological, radiological, and clinical criteria, and the secondary efficacy endpoint was M tuberculosis infection according to QuantiFERON TB Gold In-tube conversion (Cellestis, Australia). This trial was registered with the South African National Clinical Trials Register (DOH-27-0109-2654) and with ClinicalTrials.gov on July 31, 2009, number NCT00953927.FindingsBetween July 15, 2009, and May 4, 2011, we enrolled 2797 infants (1399 allocated MVA85A and 1398 allocated placebo). Median follow-up in the per-protocol population was 24·6 months (IQR 19·2–28·1), and did not differ between groups. More infants who received MVA85A than controls had at least one local adverse event (1251 [89%] of 1399 MVA85A recipients and 628 [45%] of 1396 controls who received the allocated intervention) but the numbers of infants with systemic adverse events (1120 [80%] and 1059 [76%]) or serious adverse events (257 [18%] and 258 (18%) did not differ between groups. None of the 648 serious adverse events in these 515 infants was related to MVA85A. 32 (2%) of 1399 MVA85A recipients met the primary efficacy endpoint (tuberculosis incidence of 1·15 per 100 person-years [95% CI 0·79 to 1·62]; with conversion in 178 [13%] of 1398 infants [95% CI 11·0 to 14·6]) as did 39 (3%) of 1395 controls (1·39 per 100 person-years [1·00 to 1·91]; with conversion in 171 [12%] of 1394 infants [10·6 to 14·1]). Efficacy against tuberculosis was 17·3% (95% CI −31·9 to 48·2) and against M tuberculosis infection was −3·8% (–28·1 to 15·9).InterpretationMVA85A was well tolerated and induced modest cell-mediated immune responses. Reasons for the absence of MVA85A efficacy against tuberculosis or M tuberculosis infection in infants need exploration.FundingAeras, Wellcome Trust, and Oxford-Emergent Tuberculosis Consortium (OETC).

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Estimation of vaccine efficacy for variants that emerge after the placebo group is vaccinated.

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