Dataset Information

External Validation of the FIPS Score for Post-TIPS Mortality in a National Veterans Affairs Cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) score was recently demonstrated to improve prediction of post-TIPS mortality relative to existing standards. As this score was derived from a German cohort over an extended time period, it is unclear if performance will translate well to other settings. This study aimed to externally validate the FIPS score in a large Veterans Affairs (VA) cohort over two separate eras of TIPS-related care.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS placement in the VA from 2008 to 2020. Cox regression models for post-TIPS survival were constructed using FIPS, MELD, MELD-Na, or CTP scores as predictors. Discrimination (Harrell's C) and calibration (joint tests of calibration curve slope and intercept) were evaluated for each score. A stratified analysis was performed for time periods between 2008-2013 and 2014-2020.

Results

The cohort of 1,274 patients was 97.3% male with mean age 60.9 years and mean MELD-Na 14. The FIPS score demonstrated the highest overall discrimination versus MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP (0.634 vs. 0.585, 0.626, 0.612, respectively). However, in the modern treatment era (2014-2020), the FIPS score performed similarly to MELD-Na. Additionally, the FIPS score demonstrated poor calibration at one-month and six-month post-TIPS timepoints (joint p = 0.04 and 0.004, respectively). MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP were well-calibrated at each timepoint (each joint p > 0.05).

Conclusion

The FIPS score performed similarly to MELD-Na in the modern TIPS treatment era and demonstrated regions of poor calibration. Future models derived with contemporary data may improve prediction of post-TIPS mortality.

SUBMITTER: Chapin SE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9117561 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

External Validation of the FIPS Score for Post-TIPS Mortality in a National Veterans Affairs Cohort.

Chapin Sara E SE Goldberg David S DS Kaplan David E DE Mahmud Nadim N

Digestive diseases and sciences 20211119 9

<h4>Background</h4>The Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) score was recently demonstrated to improve prediction of post-TIPS mortality relative to existing standards. As this score was derived from a German cohort over an extended time period, it is unclear if performance will translate well to other settings. This study aimed to externally validate the FIPS score in a large Veterans Affairs (VA) cohort over two separate eras of TIPS-related care.<h4>Methods</h4>This was a retrospective ...[more]

PMID: 34797445

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Project description:ImportanceMany veterans enrolled in the Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system have access to non-VA care through insurance and VA-purchased community care. Prior comparisons of VA and non-VA hospital outcomes have been limited to subpopulations.ObjectiveTo compare outcomes for 6 acute conditions in VA and non-VA hospitals for younger and older veterans using VA and all-payer discharge data.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used a repeated cross-sectional analysis of hospitalization records for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage, heart failure (HF), pneumonia, and stroke. Participants included VA enrollees from 11 states at VA and non-VA hospitals from 2012 to 2017. Analysis was conducted from July 1, 2022, to October 18, 2023.ExposuresTreatment in VA or non-VA hospital.Main outcome and measuresThirty-day mortality, 30-day readmission, length of stay (LOS), and costs. Average treatment outcomes of VA hospitals were estimated using inverse probability weighted regression adjustment to account for selection into hospitals. Models were stratified by veterans' age (aged less than 65 years and aged 65 years and older).ResultsThere was a total of 593 578 hospitalizations and 414 861 patients with mean (SD) age 75 (12) years, 405 602 males (98%), 442 297 hospitalizations of non-Hispanic White individuals (75%) and 73 155 hospitalizations of non-Hispanic Black individuals (12%) overall. VA hospitalizations had a lower probability of 30-day mortality for HF (age ≥65 years, -0.02 [95% CI, -0.03 to -0.01]) and stroke (age <65 years, -0.03 [95% CI, -0.05 to -0.02]; age ≥65 years, -0.05 [95% CI, -0.07 to -0.03]). VA hospitalizations had a lower probability of 30-day readmission for CABG (age <65 years, -0.04 [95% CI, -0.06 to -0.01]; age ≥65 years, -0.05 [95% CI, -0.07 to -0.02]), GI hemorrhage (age <65 years, -0.04 [95% CI, -0.06 to -0.03]), HF (age <65 years, -0.05 [95% CI, -0.07 to -0.03]), pneumonia (age <65 years, -0.04 [95% CI, -0.06 to -0.03]; age ≥65 years, -0.03 [95% CI, -0.04 to -0.02]), and stroke (age <65 years, -0.11 [95% CI, -0.13 to -0.09]; age ≥65 years, -0.13 [95% CI, -0.16 to -0.10]) but higher probability of readmission for AMI (age <65 years, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.01 to 0.06]). VA hospitalizations had a longer mean LOS and higher costs for all conditions, except AMI and stroke in younger patients.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of veterans, VA hospitalizations had lower mortality for HF and stroke and lower readmissions, longer LOS, and higher costs for most conditions compared with non-VA hospitalizations with differences by condition and age group. There were tradeoffs between better outcomes and higher resource use in VA hospitals for some conditions.

Project description:BackgroundThe US Veterans Affairs (VA) healthcare system began reporting risk-adjusted mortality for intensive care (ICU) admissions in 2005. However, while the VA's mortality model has been updated and adapted for risk-adjustment of all inpatient hospitalizations, recent model performance has not been published. We sought to assess the current performance of VA's 4 standardized mortality models: acute care 30-day mortality (acute care SMR-30); ICU 30-day mortality (ICU SMR-30); acute care in-hospital mortality (acute care SMR); and ICU in-hospital mortality (ICU SMR).MethodsRetrospective cohort study with split derivation and validation samples. Standardized mortality models were fit using derivation data, with coefficients applied to the validation sample. Nationwide VA hospitalizations that met model inclusion criteria during fiscal years 2017-2018(derivation) and 2019 (validation) were included. Model performance was evaluated using c-statistics to assess discrimination and comparison of observed versus predicted deaths to assess calibration.ResultsAmong 1,143,351 hospitalizations eligible for the acute care SMR-30 during 2017-2019, in-hospital mortality was 1.8%, and 30-day mortality was 4.3%. C-statistics for the SMR models in validation data were 0.870 (acute care SMR-30); 0.864 (ICU SMR-30); 0.914 (acute care SMR); and 0.887 (ICU SMR). There were 16,036 deaths (4.29% mortality) in the SMR-30 validation cohort versus 17,458 predicted deaths (4.67%), reflecting 0.38% over-prediction. Across deciles of predicted risk, the absolute difference in observed versus predicted percent mortality was a mean of 0.38%, with a maximum error of 1.81% seen in the highest-risk decile.Conclusions and relevanceThe VA's SMR models, which incorporate patient physiology on presentation, are highly predictive and demonstrate good calibration both overall and across risk deciles. The current SMR models perform similarly to the initial ICU SMR model, indicating appropriate adaption and re-calibration.

Dataset Information

External Validation of the FIPS Score for Post-TIPS Mortality in a National Veterans Affairs Cohort.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

External Validation of the FIPS Score for Post-TIPS Mortality in a National Veterans Affairs Cohort.

Similar Datasets

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