The Impact of Alcohol Control Policy on Pneumonia Mortality in Lithuania: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Zafar A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9128348 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
The Impact of Alcohol Control Policy on Pneumonia Mortality in Lithuania: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.
Zafar Anush A Rehm Jürgen J Feng Xinyang X Jiang Huan H Kim Kawon Victoria KV Manthey Jakob J Radišauskas Ričardas R Štelemėkas Mindaugas M Petkevičienė Janina J Tran Alexander A Lange Shannon S
Epidemiology and infection 20220420
Similar Datasets
Project description:Background and aimsAlcohol use has been identified as a major risk factor for burden of mortality and disease, particularly for countries in eastern Europe. During the past two decades, several countries in this region have implemented effective alcohol policy measures to combat this burden. The aim of the current study was to measure the association between Lithuania's alcohol control policies and adult all-cause mortality.DesignInterrupted time-series methodology by means of general additive models.SettingLithuania.ParticipantsAdult population of Lithuania, aged 20 years and older.MeasurementsAlcohol control policies were ascertained via a document review of relevant legislation materials. Policy effects were evaluated as follows: (1) slope changes in periods of legislative (non-)activity with regard to alcohol control policy (analysis 1); (2) level changes of three interventions following recommendations of the World Health Organization (analysis 2); and (3) level changes of seven interventions judged a priori by an international panel of experts (analysis 3). Mortality was measured by sex-stratified and total monthly age-standardized rates of all-cause mortality for the adult population.FindingsDuring the period 2001-18, effective alcohol control policy measures were implemented on several occasions, and in those years the all-cause mortality rate declined by approximately 3.2% more than in years without such policies. In particular, the implementation of increased taxation in 2017 was associated with reduced mortality over and above the general trend for men and in total for all analyses, which amounted to 1452 deaths avoided (95% confidence interval = -166 to -2739) in the year following the implementation of the policy.ConclusionsAlcohol control policies in Lithuania appear to have reduced the overall adult all-cause mortality over and above secular trends.
| S-EPMC8873029 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionAlcohol use is a major risk factor for mortality. Previous studies suggest that the alcohol-attributable mortality burden is higher in lower socioeconomic strata. This project will test the hypothesis that the 2017 increase of alcohol excise taxes linked to lower all-cause mortality rates in previous analyses will reduce socioeconomic mortality inequalities.Methods and analysisData on all causes of deaths will be obtained from Statistics Lithuania. Record linkage will be implemented using personal identifiers combining data from (1) the 2011 whole-population census, (2) death records between 1 March 2011 (census date) and 31 December 2019, and (3) emigration records, for individuals aged 40-70 years. The analyses will be performed separately for all-cause and for alcohol-attributable deaths. Monthly age-standardised mortality rates will be calculated by sex, education and three measures of socioeconomic status (SES). Inequalities in mortality will be assessed using absolute and relative indicators between low and high SES groups. We will perform interrupted time series analyses, and test the impact of the 2017 rise in alcohol excise taxation using generalised additive mixed models. In these models, we will control for secular trends for economic development.Ethics and disseminationThis work is part of project grant 1R01AA028224-01 by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. It has been granted research ethics approval 050/2020 by Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Research Ethics Board on 17 April 2020, renewed on 30 March 2021. The time series of mortality inequalities as well as the statistical code will be made publicly available, allowing other researchers to adapt the proposed method to other jurisdictions.
| S-EPMC8650476 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and aimsThe relationship between alcohol consumption and cirrhosis is well established. Policies that can influence population-level use of alcohol should, in turn, impact cirrhosis. We examined the effect of population-level alcohol control policies on cirrhosis mortality rates in Lithuania - a high-income European Union country with high levels of alcohol consumption.MethodsAge-standardized, monthly liver mortality data (deaths per 100,000 adults, aged 15+) from Lithuania were analysed from 2001 to 2018 (n = 216 months) while controlling for economic confounders (gross domestic product and inflation). An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted to estimate the effect of three alcohol control policies implemented in 2008, 2017 and 2018 and the number of cirrhosis deaths averted.ResultsThere was a significant effect of the 2008 (P < .0001) and 2017 (P = .0003) alcohol control policies but a null effect of the 2018 policy (P = .40). Following the 2008 policy, the cirrhosis mortality rate dropped from 4.93 to 3.41 (95% CI: 3.02-3.80) deaths per 100,000 adults, which equated to 493 deaths averted. Further, we found that following the 2017 policy, the mortality rate dropped from 2.85 to 2.01 (95% CI: 1.50-2.52) deaths per 100,000 adults, corresponding to 245 deaths averted.ConclusionsOur findings support the hypothesis that alcohol control policies can have a significant, immediate effect on cirrhosis mortality. These policy measures are cost-effective and aid in reducing the burden of liver disease.
| S-EPMC8930681 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTaxation increases which reduce the affordability of alcohol are expected to reduce mortality inequalities. A recent taxation increase in Lithuania offers the unique possibility to test this hypothesis.MethodsCensus-linked mortality data between 2011 and 2019 were used to calculate monthly sex- and education-stratified age-standardized mortality rates for the population aged 40 to 70 years. As primary outcome, we analysed the difference in age-standardized all-cause mortality rates between the population of lowest versus highest educational achievement. The impact of the 2017 taxation increase was evaluated using interrupted time series analyses. To identify whether changes in alcohol use can explain the observed effects on all-cause mortality, the education-based mortality differences were then decomposed into n = 16 cause-of-death groupings.ResultsBetween 2012 and 2019, education-based all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania declined by 18% among men and by 14% among women. Following the alcohol taxation increase, we found a pronounced yet temporary reduction of mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men (- 13%). Subsequent decomposition analyses suggest that the reduction in mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated men was mainly driven by narrowing mortality differences in injuries and infectious diseases.ConclusionsA marked increase in alcohol excise taxation was associated with a decrease in mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men. More pronounced reductions in deaths from injuries and infectious diseases among lower as compared to higher educated groups could be the result of differential changes in alcohol use in these populations.
| S-EPMC9841962 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionOn 1 January 2018, an amendment to the alcohol control law was introduced in Lithuania which, among other changes, reduced trading hours for alcoholic beverages by 4 h for weekdays and Saturdays, and by 9 h for Sundays. The objective of the current study was to quantify the potential association of this law with the numbers and types of emergency room (ER) visits in Lithuania, in general and specifically for Sundays, for all ER visits, for injury-related ER visits and specifically for alcohol poisoning as a 100% alcohol-attributable cause.MethodsSex-stratified time-series analysis-based models for the period 2016-2019 were used to test for associations and for potential alternative explanations (e.g., the increase in minimum legal drinking age, which occurred at the same time).ResultsOverall, while the reduction in sales hours for both sexes was associated with slight increases in all types and in injury-related ER visits on a weekly basis, the association with ER visits for alcohol poisoning was in the opposite direction for men in all models. Specifically, among men, it was associated with an approximate decrease of 20% of alcohol poisoning-related ER visits on Sundays and an approximate decrease of 12% of alcohol poisoning-related ER visits for all seven weekdays.Discussion and conclusionsAs predicted, restrictions on availability were associated with marked reductions in ER visits for alcohol poisoning in men. However, contrary to expectations, there were no overall reductions in overall ER visits, nor reductions in injury-related ER visits.
| S-EPMC9898194 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundOn November 24(th) 2005, the Government of England and Wales removed regulatory restrictions on the times at which licensed premises could sell alcohol. This study tests availability theory by treating the implementation of Licensing Act (2003) as a natural experiment in alcohol policy.MethodsAn interrupted time series design was employed to estimate the Act's immediate and delayed impact on violence in the City of Manchester (Population 464,200). We collected police recorded rates of violence, robbery, and total crime between the 1st of February 2004 and the 31st of December 2007. Events were aggregated by week, yielding a total of 204 observations (95 pre-, and 109 post-intervention). Secondary analysis examined changes in daily patterns of violence. Pre- and post-intervention events were separated into four three-hour segments 18∶00-20∶59, 21∶00-23.59, 00∶00-02∶59, 03∶00-05∶59.ResultsAnalysis found no evidence that the Licensing Act (2003) affected the overall volume of violence. However, analyses of night-time violence found a gradual and permanent shift of weekend violence into later parts of the night. The results estimated an initial increase of 27.5% between 03∶00 to 06∶00 (ω = 0.2433, 95% CI = 0.06, 0.42), which increased to 36% by the end of the study period (δ = -0.897, 95% CI = -1.02, -0.77).ConclusionsThis study found no evidence that a national policy increasing the physical availability of alcohol affected the overall volume of violence. There was, however, evidence suggesting that the policy may be associated with changes to patterns of violence in the early morning (3 a.m. to 6 a.m.).
| S-EPMC3574094 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Centralizing procurement for prescription drugs has the potential to reduce drug spending by creating economies of scale and by improving purchasing power. In March 2019, the Chinese government launched a volume-based purchasing (VBP) pilot program using a competitive bidding process to purchase accredited generic drugs for which branded drug substitutes were available. We performed an interrupted time-series design to estimate the change in monthly drug purchase quantity and spending comparing 14 months before and 7 months after the VBP pilot. We obtained monthly prescription drug purchase data for all purchases from public medical institutions in the three large pilot cities (Beijing, Shanghai and Xi’an) and two non-pilot cities (Changsha and Zhengzhou) between January 2018 to September 2019. We used negative binomial regression and log-linked Gamma Generalized Linear Model for purchase quantity and spending respectively. We evaluated heterogeneity of impact by pilot city, drug type (selected or non-selected drugs), and therapeutic class (cardiovascular disease, mental disorder and cancer) separately. The implementation of the pilot reform was associated with a 132% (95%-CI: 104–165%, p < 0.001) increase in the purchase quantity of selected drugs in pilot cities compared to an 17% decrease (95%-CI: 9–25%, p < 0.001) in control cities. In contrast, the purchase quantity of branded and other drugs in pilot cities decreased by 38% (95%-CI: 27–46%, p < 0.001) and 77% (95%-CI: 71–81%, p < 0.001), respectively; while in control cities, these remained at similar levels. Overall, in pilot cities, there was a 35% (95%-CI: 28–41%, p < 0.001) decrease in the purchase spending for all drugs in the first post-policy month, from 8.1 billion CNY estimated in the absence of VBP down to 5.3 billion CNY; in control cities, the change was negligible. The largest reduction in spending occurred for drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. The evidence suggests a positive impact of the VBP pilot in reducing overall drug spending and increasing the use of accredited generics in three pilot cities. This overall trend is not observed in two non-pilot cities. Assessments of long-term impact of the VBP policy on additional key outcomes including drug prescriptions, drug utilization, patients’ health outcomes and payments on drugs are needed.
| S-EPMC9262040 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionIn March 2016, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued opioid prescribing guidelines for chronic noncancer pain. In response, in April 2016, the North Carolina Medical Board launched the Safe Opioid Prescribing Initiative, an investigative program intended to limit the overprescribing of opioids. This study focuses on the association of the Safe Opioid Prescribing Initiative with immediate and sustained changes in opioid prescribing among all patients who received opioid and opioid discontinuation and tapering among patients who received high-dose (>90 milligrams of morphine equivalents), long-term (>90 days) opioid therapy.MethodsControlled and single interrupted time series analysis of opioid prescribing outcomes before and after the implementation of Safe Opioid Prescribing Initiative was conducted using deidentified data from the North Carolina Controlled Substances Reporting System from January 2010 through March 2017. Analysis was conducted in 2019-2020.ResultsIn an average study month, 513,717 patients, including patients who received 47,842 high-dose, long-term opioid therapy, received 660,912 opioid prescriptions at 1.3 prescriptions per patient. There was a 0.52% absolute decline (95% CI= -0.87, -0.19) in patients receiving opioid prescriptions in the month after Safe Opioid Prescribing Initiative implementation. Abrupt discontinuation, rapid tapering, and gradual tapering of opioids among patients who received high-dose, long-term opioid therapy increased by 1% (95% CI= -0.22, 2.23), 2.2% (95% CI=0.91, 3.47), and 1.3% (95% CI=0.96, 1.57), respectively, in the month after Safe Opioid Prescribing Initiative implementation.ConclusionsAlthough Safe Opioid Prescribing Initiative implementation was associated with an immediate decline in overall opioid prescribing, it was also associated with an unintended immediate increase in discontinuations and rapid tapering among patients who received high-dose, long-term opioid therapy. Better policy communication and prescriber education regarding opioid tapering best practices may help mitigate unintended consequences of statewide policies.
| S-EPMC7902466 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn September 2019, the "4 + 7" centralized procurement pilot program was expanded nationwide aiming at reducing drug prices by means of volume-based procurement and using accredited generic drugs for branded drug substitutes. Given the current uncertain effect of the policy outside pilot areas, this study was conducted to evaluate the impact of the National Volume-based Procurement policy on the use of policy-related drugs after expansion.MethodA single-group interrupted time series was applied using drug purchase data, covering 25 months from December 2018 to December 2020. Drugs related to the centralized procurement policy were selected as samples, including 25 first-batch policy-related drugs and 56 alternative drugs. Centralized procured drugs can be divided into bid-winning and non-winning products, where non-winning products were sorted into generic and branded drugs, and alternative products were classified according to different degrees of substitution. Purchase volume, expenditures, and daily costs were measured.ResultsAfter the implementation of the policy, a significant increase was associated with the volume of bid-winning drugs (p < 0.001) and the volume of generic and branded drugs decreased immediately. The DDDc of drugs under the same generic name significantly reduced (an instantaneous drop of bid-winning drugs by approximately 25%, 7.62 CNY for generics and 3.07 CNY for branded drugs), saving 48.2 million CNY of drug expenditures. The policy has a significant effect on the drug for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases and exerted little influence on the drug for the treatment of nervous diseases, and the substitution of generics for antitumor-branded drugs was not obvious. In addition, the procurement volume of alternative drugs appeared to be a "carry-over".ConclusionsThese findings indicated that the policy demonstrated positive effects in terms of price reductions and cost savings and accelerated the substitution of generics against branded drugs. The "patent cliff" for branded drugs has gradually emerged. Besides, a short-term "spillover effect" of the volume of alternative drugs was observed, requiring special attention and vigilance.
| S-EPMC10540346 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Varicella vaccination is optional and requires self-payment. On 1 December 2018, Wuxi City launched a free varicella vaccination program for children. This study aimed to evaluate the changes in varicella incidence before and after the implementation of the policy. The data were obtained from official information systems and statistical yearbooks. We divided the period into chargeable (January 2017 to November 2018) and free (December 2018 to December 2021) periods. Interrupt time series analysis was used to conduct a generalised least-squares regression analysis for the two periods. A total of 51,071 varicella cases were reported between January 2017 and December 2021. After the implementation of the policy, there was a statistically significant decrease in the incidence of varicella (β2 = -0.140, P = 0.017), and the slope of the incidence also decreased by 0.012 (P = 0.015). Following policy implementation, the incidence decreased in all age groups, with the largest decline observed among children aged 8-14 years (β2 = -1.109, P = 0.009), followed by children aged ≤7 years (β2 = -0.894, P = 0.013). Our study found a significant reduction in the incidence of varicella in the total population after the introduction of free varicella vaccination in Wuxi City.
| S-EPMC10540171 | biostudies-literature