Dataset Information

Modeling the Ex Ante Clinical Real Option Value in an Innovative Therapeutic Area: ALK-Positive Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

A drug that improves survival and/or disease progression can create real option value (ROV)-the additional health gain from future innovations enabled by a longer survival. ROV can be a relevant consideration for both clinical and payer decision-makers. We aimed to estimate the ex ante ROV for first-line (1L) alectinib in anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Methods

We developed a Markov model to estimate life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained with 1L alectinib versus 1L crizotinib due to potential future second-line (2L) drugs. Transition probabilities were derived from the phase 3 trial of 1L alectinib and phase 2 trial of 2L brigatinib. We identified drugs being studied in phase 2 and 3 trials in ALK-positive NSCLC at the time of alectinib's 1L approval and projected the likelihood and timing of their arrival and their potential efficacy based on publicly available data.

Results

The discounted incremental LYs and QALYs for alectinib increased by 12.9% (95% CR - 2.96%, 34.82%; 1.25 vs. 1.11) and 11.2% (95% CR - 2.14%, 29.29%; 1.03 vs. 0.92), respectively, after accounting for ROV. The incremental ROV of alectinib was sensitive to the projected efficacy of future drugs, uptake level, and the hazard ratio of progression-free survival of alectinib (vs. crizotinib).

Conclusions

Ex ante ROV can be a significant value consideration in therapeutic areas with high levels of expected innovation. The potential efficacy of future drugs and incremental survival with alectinib at the projected time of arrival are important considerations in assessing ROV.

SUBMITTER: Lee W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9130184 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling the Ex Ante Clinical Real Option Value in an Innovative Therapeutic Area: ALK-Positive Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

Lee Woojung W Wong William B WB Kowal Stacey S Garrison Louis P LP Veenstra David L DL Li Meng M

PharmacoEconomics 20220509 6

<h4>Objectives</h4>A drug that improves survival and/or disease progression can create real option value (ROV)-the additional health gain from future innovations enabled by a longer survival. ROV can be a relevant consideration for both clinical and payer decision-makers. We aimed to estimate the ex ante ROV for first-line (1L) alectinib in anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK)-positive non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a Markov model to estimate life-years (LYs) and qua ...[more]

PMID: 35527331

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Project description:Background: ALK inhibitors have shown positive advance in the treatment of ALK+ NSCLC. They have achieved better results in prolonging the progression free survival and improving quality of life in comparison to chemotherapy. We have assembled the evidence related to the efficacy and safety of these agents in the treatment of ALK positive NSCLC. Materials and Methods: A comprehensive search was conducted using electronic databases of PubMed, Medline and Cochrane Library to identify the studies involving comparison of ALK inhibitors to chemotherapy and Next generation ALK inhibitors to crizotinib. PFS was the primary outcome while other outcomes like ORR, adverse events, quality of life and OS were also analyzed and compared. Hazard ratios and odds ratios obtained were analyzed using fixed effect or random effects model in Review Manager Software. Results: A total of 12 studies (n = 3,297) met the criteria for inclusion in this review and meta-analysis. ALK inhibitors including crizotinib, ceritinib and alectinib revealed significantly better PFS (HR 0.42 [0.35, 0.50; p < 0.00001]), ORR (Overall OR 6.59 [4.86, 8.94; p < 0.00001] as compared to chemotherapy in the first line as well as second line treatment settings. Intracranial response rate was better with ALK inhibitors (ceritinib and alectinib) as compared to chemotherapy OR 6.51 [2.86, 14.83; p < 0.00001]. No significant increase in grade 3 or 4 adverse events was observed with crizotinib (OR 1.21 [0.82, 1.77; p = 0.34]) or ceritinib (OR 1.49 [0.86, 2.57; p = 0.17]) when compared to chemotherapy individually. Quality of life indicators assessed were significantly improved with ALK inhibitors. Next generation agents (ceritinib, alectinib and brigatinib) revealed significant improvement in PFS (HR 0.50 [0.43, 0.57; p < 0.00001]), ORR (OR 1.57 [1.21, 2.04; p = 0.0006]) in comparison to crizotinib. Next generation agents (Alectinib and brigatinib) yielded better response intra-cranially than crizotinib in terms of objective response rate (OR 5.87 [3.49, 9.87; p < 0.00001]) and time to CNS progression (HR 0.25 [0.13, 0.46; p < 0.0001]). Alectinib by far resulted in fewer adverse events than chemotherapy or crizotinib. Conclusions: Overall ALK inhibitors are safe and effective treatment option in ALK+ non-small cell lung cancer. Of the ALK inhibitors, Next generation agents in particular alectinib and brigatinib are safer and more effective intra-cranially and can be preferred as first option.

Dataset Information

Modeling the Ex Ante Clinical Real Option Value in an Innovative Therapeutic Area: ALK-Positive Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Modeling the Ex Ante Clinical Real Option Value in an Innovative Therapeutic Area: ALK-Positive Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

Similar Datasets

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