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Estimating uncertainty in a socioeconomic index derived from the American community survey.

ABSTRACT: Socioeconomic indexes are widely used in public health to facilitate neighborhood-scale analyses. Although they are calculated with high levels of precision, they are rarely reported with accompanying measures of uncertainty (e.g., 90% confidence intervals). Here we use the variance replicate tables that accompany the United States Census Bureau's American Community Survey to report confidence intervals around the Yost Index, a socioeconomic index comprising seven variables that is frequently used in cancer surveillance. The Yost Index is reported as a percentile score from 1 (most affluent) to 100 (most deprived). We find that the average uncertainty for a census tract in the United States is plus or minus 8 percentiles, with the uncertainty a function of the value of the index itself. Scores at the extremes of the distribution are more precise and scores near the center are less precise. Less-affluent tracts have greater uncertainty than corresponding more-affluent tracts. Fewer than 50 census tracts of 72,793 nationally have unusual distributions of socioeconomic conditions that render the index uninformative. We demonstrate that the uncertainty in a census-based socioeconomic index is calculable and can be incorporated into any analysis using such an index.

SUBMITTER: Boscoe FP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9130578 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating uncertainty in a socioeconomic index derived from the American community survey.

Boscoe Francis P FP Liu Bian B Lafantasie Jordana J Niu Li L Lee Furrina F FF

SSM - population health 20220517

Socioeconomic indexes are widely used in public health to facilitate neighborhood-scale analyses. Although they are calculated with high levels of precision, they are rarely reported with accompanying measures of uncertainty (e.g., 90% confidence intervals). Here we use the variance replicate tables that accompany the United States Census Bureau's American Community Survey to report confidence intervals around the Yost Index, a socioeconomic index comprising seven variables that is frequently us ...[more]

PMID: 35647260

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Project description:BackgroundIn the United States, male-to-male sexual transmission accounts for the greatest number of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses and a substantial number of sexually transmitted infections (STI) annually. However, the prevalence and annual incidence of HIV and other STIs among men who have sex with men (MSM) cannot be estimated in local contexts because demographic data on sexual behavior, particularly same-sex behavior, are not routinely collected by large-scale surveys that allow analysis at state, county, or finer levels, such as the US decennial census or the American Community Survey (ACS). Therefore, techniques for indirectly estimating population sizes of MSM are necessary to supply denominators for rates at various geographic levels.ObjectiveOur objectives were to indirectly estimate MSM population sizes at the county level to incorporate recent data estimates and to aggregate county-level estimates to states and core-based statistical areas (CBSAs).MethodsWe used data from the ACS to calculate a weight for each county in the United States based on its relative proportion of households that were headed by a male who lived with a male partner, compared with the overall proportion among counties at the same level of urbanicity (ie, large central metropolitan county, large fringe metropolitan county, medium/small metropolitan county, or nonmetropolitan county). We then used this weight to adjust the urbanicity-stratified percentage of adult men who had sex with a man in the past year, according to estimates derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), for each county. We multiplied the weighted percentages by the number of adult men in each county to estimate its number of MSM, summing county-level estimates to create state- and CBSA-level estimates. Finally, we scaled our estimated MSM population sizes to a meta-analytic estimate of the percentage of US MSM in the past 5 years (3.9%).ResultsWe found that the percentage of MSM among adult men ranged from 1.5% (Wyoming) to 6.0% (Rhode Island) among states. Over one-quarter of MSM in the United States resided in 1 of 13 counties. Among counties with over 300,000 residents, the five highest county-level percentages of MSM were San Francisco County, California at 18.5% (66,586/359,566); New York County, New York at 13.8% (87,556/635,847); Denver County, Colorado at 10.5% (25,465/243,002); Multnomah County, Oregon at 9.9% (28,949/292,450); and Suffolk County, Massachusetts at 9.1% (26,338/289,634). Although California (n=792,750) and Los Angeles County (n=251,521) had the largest MSM populations of states and counties, respectively, the New York City-Newark-Jersey City CBSA had the most MSM of all CBSAs (n=397,399).ConclusionsWe used a new method to generate small-area estimates of MSM populations, incorporating prior work, recent data, and urbanicity-specific parameters. We also used an imputation approach to estimate MSM in rural areas, where same-sex sexual behavior may be underreported. Our approach yielded estimates of MSM population sizes within states, counties, and metropolitan areas in the United States, which provide denominators for calculation of HIV and STI prevalence and incidence at those geographic levels.

Dataset Information

Estimating uncertainty in a socioeconomic index derived from the American community survey.

Publications

Estimating uncertainty in a socioeconomic index derived from the American community survey.

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