Dataset Information

Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria.

Design

Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July-December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV infection among adults (aged 15-64 years); antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among adults living with HIV; and viral load suppression (VLS) rate among adults living with HIV.

Methods

We used an ensemble modeling method called stacked generalization to analyze available covariates and a geostatistical model to incorporate the output from stacking as well as spatial autocorrelation in the modeled outcomes. Separate models were fitted for each indicator. Finally, we produced raster estimates of each indicator on an approximately 5×5-km grid and estimates at the sub-state/local government area (LGA) and state level.

Results

Estimates for all three indicators varied both within and between states. While state-level HIV prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.3%-0.5%]) to 4.3% (95% UI: 3.7%-4.9%), LGA prevalence ranged from 0.2% (95% UI: 0.1%-0.5%) to 8.5% (95% UI: 5.8%-12.2%). Although the range in ART coverage did not substantially differ at state level (25.6%-76.9%) and LGA level (21.9%-81.9%), the mean absolute difference in ART coverage between LGAs within states was 16.7 percentage points (range, 3.5-38.5 percentage points). States with large differences in ART coverage between LGAs also showed large differences in VLS-regardless of level of effective treatment coverage-indicating that state-level geographic targeting may be insufficient to address coverage gaps.

Conclusion

Geospatial analysis across the HIV continuum of care can effectively highlight sub-state variation and identify areas that require further attention in order to achieve epidemic control. By generating local estimates, governments, donors, and other implementing partners will be better positioned to conduct targeted interventions and prioritize resource distribution.

SUBMITTER: O'Brien-Carelli C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9176772 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.

O'Brien-Carelli Caitlin C Steuben Krista K Stafford Kristen A KA Aliogo Rukevwe R Alagi Matthias M Johanns Casey K CK Ibrahim Jahun J Shiraishi Ray R Ehoche Akipu A Greby Stacie S Dirlikov Emilio E Ibrahim Dalhatu D Bronson Megan M Aliyu Gambo G Aliyu Sani S Dwyer-Lindgren Laura L Swaminathan Mahesh M Duber Herbert C HC Charurat Man M

PloS one 20220608 6

<h4>Objective</h4>Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria.<h4>Design</h4>Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July-December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV inf ...[more]

PMID: 35675346

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Partner HIV testing during pregnancy has remained abysmally low in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Nigeria. Males rarely attend antenatal clinics with their female partners, limiting the few opportunities available to offer them HIV testing. In this study, we evaluated the scale-up of the Healthy Beginning Initiative (HBI), a community-driven evidenced-based intervention to increase HIV testing among pregnant women and their male partners. Our objectives were to determine the: (1) male partner participation rate; (2) prevalence of HIV among male partners of pregnant women; (3) factors associated with HIV positivity among male partners of HIV-positive pregnant women. METHODS:We reviewed program data of expectant parents enrolled in HBI in Benue State, north-central Nigeria. During HBI, trained lay health workers provided educational and counseling sessions, and offered free onsite integrated testing for HIV, hepatitis B virus and sickle cell genotype to pregnant women and their male partners who participated in incentivized, church-organized baby showers. Each participant completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire on demographics, lifestyle habits, and HIV testing history. Chi-square test was used to compare the characteristics of HIV-positive and HIV-negative male partners. Simple and multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the association between participants' characteristics and HIV positivity among male partners of HIV-positive women. RESULTS:Male partner participation rate was 57% (5264/9231). Overall HIV prevalence was 6.1% (891/14495) with significantly higher rates in women (7.4%, 681/9231) compared to men (4.0%, 210/5264). Among the 681 HIV-positive women, 289 male partners received HIV testing; 37.7% (109/289) were found to be HIV-positive. In multivariate analysis, older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27-4.72 for age 30-39 years vs. <30 years; aOR: 2.39, CI: 1.18-4.82 for age ≥40 years vs. <30 years) and self-reported daily alcohol intake (vs. never (aOR: 0.35, CI: 0.13-0.96)) were associated with HIV positivity in male partners of HIV-positive women. CONCLUSION:The community-based congregational approach is a potential strategy to increase male partner HIV testing towards achieving the UNAIDS goal of 90% HIV screening. Targeting male partners of HIV-positive women for screening may provide a higher yield of HIV diagnosis and the opportunity to engage known positives in care in this population.

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Project description:IntroductionAchieving UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets is a crucial step towards ending the AIDS epidemic. Many countries have published estimates of care cascades, although often with methodological limitations. We describe an approach that used the national HIV registry as a starting-point to determine the HIV care cascade and resulting UNAIDS 90-90-90 estimates for Singapore in 2014.MethodsHIV is a legally notifiable disease in Singapore. The anonymized HIV registry data provided for a back-calculation model from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to obtain 2014 estimates for the total number of persons living with HIV (PLHIV), and the count in the registry for proportions diagnosed with HIV and linked to care. Using additional data collected for a simple random sample from the registry, outcomes in 2015 and 2016 were ascertained retrospectively to derive proportions for those retained in care, on antiretroviral therapy, and achieved viral suppression. Findings were extrapolated to derive national estimates and UN90-90-90 estimates. Bootstrapped samples from the model and sample were used to derive 95% confidence intervals.ResultsAn estimated 6900 (95% CI 6650, 7050) persons were living with HIV and AIDS in 2014. Of these, 4948 were diagnosed with HIV, and 4820 had been linked to care. The random sample of 500 persons was further analysed, and of these, 87.2% were retained in care, 84.6% on antiretroviral therapy, and 79.6% had suppressed viral loads. The proportions of HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy and achieving viral suppression were 60.7% (95% CI 58.4, 63.6) and 57.1% (95% CI 55.0, 60.5) respectively. The corresponding UNAIDS 90-90-90 estimates were 71.7% (95% CI 70.0, 74.2) of all persons diagnosed; 84.6% (95% CI 81.6, 87.4) of diagnosed persons being on antiretroviral therapy, and 94.1% (95% CI 91.6, 96.2) of persons on therapy having achieved viral suppression.ConclusionsA national HIV registry, alongside back-calculation and additional data from a sample, can be used to estimate attainment of UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and identify system gaps. The registry had advantages of providing a well-established, comprehensive capture of diagnosed persons and easily accessible data. The same approach can be used elsewhere if similar data are available.

Dataset Information

Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.

Objective

Design

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.

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