U.S. Federal Reserve Policies can cause Political instability by raising bread prices.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Supplementary information
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-022-01300-0.
SUBMITTER: Koren O
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9183752 | biostudies-literature | 2022
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
U.S. Federal Reserve Policies can cause Political instability by raising bread prices.
Koren Ore O Winecoff W Kindred WK
Food security 20220610 6
This note argues that the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve impact food prices globally and can - by extension - affect the incidence of food riots and broader social conflict. We additionally claim that these impacts are especially likely in the case of commodities with more price-inelastic demand, staple cereals in particular, but less likely in the case of food commodities with more price-elastic demand, such as meats and oil. Using mediation analysis, we find empirical support fo ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:A central feature of the Covid-19 pandemic is state differences. Some state Governors closed all but essential businesses, others did not. In some states, most of the population wore face coverings when in public; in other states, <50% wore face coverings. According to journalists, these differences were symptomatic of a politically polarized America. The Big 5 personality factors also cluster at the state level. For example, residents of Utah score high on Conscientiousness and low on Neuroticism, whereas residents of Massachusetts and Connecticut show the opposite pattern. In state-level regressions that controlled for partisan political allegiances, Conscientiousness was a significant (negative) predictor of the stringency of state Covid-19 restrictions, whereas Openness was a significant (positive) predictor of mask wearing. A number of the predictors were strongly correlated with each other. For example, the correlation coefficient linking Openness with the percentage of Democratic state legislators was r = 0.53. Commonality regression partitions the explained variance between the amount that is unique to each predictor and the amount that is shared among subsets of correlated predictors. This approach revealed that the common variance shared by Conscientiousness, Openness and partisan politics accounted for 34% of the state differences in Covid-19 policy and 35% of the state differences in mask wearing. The results reflect the importance of personality in how Americans have responded to the Covid-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC8502796 | biostudies-literature
Project description:For centuries swidden was an important farming practice found across the girth of Southeast Asia. Today, however, these systems are changing and sometimes disappearing at a pace never before experienced. In order to explain the demise or transitioning of swidden we need to understand the rapid and massive changes that have and are occurring in the political and economic environment in which these farmers operate. Swidden farming has always been characterized by change, but since the onset of modern independent nation states, governments and markets in Southeast Asia have transformed the terms of swiddeners' everyday lives to a degree that is significantly different from that ever experienced before. In this paper we identified six factors that have contributed to the demise or transformation of swidden systems, and support these arguments with examples from China (Xishuangbanna), Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. These trends include classifying swiddeners as ethnic minorities within nation-states, dividing the landscape into forest and permanent agriculture, expansion of forest departments and the rise of conservation, resettlement, privatization and commoditization of land and land-based production, and expansion of market infrastructure and the promotion of industrial agriculture. In addition we note a growing trend toward a transition from rural to urban livelihoods and expanding urban-labor markets.
| S-EPMC2709851 | biostudies-other
Project description:The government is prohibited from directly negotiating drug prices for Medicare Part D, resulting in substantial policy debate. However, the government has an established mechanism for setting prices with pharmaceutical manufacturers for certain other federal programs--the Federal Supply Schedule (FSS).To estimate how much could be saved nationwide if prices equivalent to the 2006 FSS were achieved for the top 200 drug formulations dispensed to seniors.Cross-sectional analysis of drug utilization patterns and costs from the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys (MEPS), 2003-2004, and the 2006 FSS.Seniors who filled a prescription for any of these common drugs (n = 6,135 individuals).Prescription expenditures were obtained from MEPS, and a price/unit was calculated in 2006 dollars. This price/unit was compared to the 2006 FSS, and a savings/unit was calculated and summed across the observed units dispensed in MEPS.The potential annual savings with FSS prices would be $21.9 billion [95% confidence interval (CI), $21.1 billion to $22.8 billion]. If FSS prices were substituted for only the top ten drugs, the annual savings would be $5.9 billion (95% CI, $5.7 billion, $6.1 billion).Extension of existing price setting mechanisms to Medicare could save tens of billions of dollars if prices similar to those already achieved by other federal programs could be reached. Whether or not this is a political or economic possibility, the magnitude of these savings cannot be ignored.
| S-EPMC2517993 | biostudies-other
Project description:U.S. regulatory and research agencies use ecotoxicity test data to assess the hazards associated with substances that may be released into the environment, including but not limited to industrial chemicals, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, food additives, and color additives. These data are used to conduct hazard assessments and evaluate potential risks to aquatic life (e.g., invertebrates, fish), birds, wildlife species, or the environment. To identify opportunities for regulatory uses of non-animal replacements for ecotoxicity tests, the needs and uses for data from tests utilizing animals must first be clarified. Accordingly, the objective of this review was to identify the ecotoxicity test data relied upon by U.S. federal agencies. The standards, test guidelines, guidance documents, and/or endpoints that are used to address each of the agencies' regulatory and research needs regarding ecotoxicity testing are described in the context of their application to decision-making. Testing and information use, needs, and/or requirements relevant to the regulatory or programmatic mandates of the agencies taking part in the Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods Ecotoxicology Workgroup are captured. This information will be useful for coordinating efforts to develop and implement alternative test methods to reduce, refine, or replace animal use in chemical safety evaluations.
| S-EPMC9623878 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ensuring the safety, health, and overall well-being of animals raised for food is both an ethical obligation and a critical component of providing safe food products. The use of antibiotics for maintaining animal health has come under scrutiny in recent years due to the rise of antibiotic resistance globally. Some U.S. producers, especially in the poultry industry, have responded by eliminating their antibiotic use. The number of animals raised without antibiotics (RWA) is growing in the U.S., but there are concerns that RWA practices might negatively impact animal health and welfare. Therefore, the objective of this study was to survey U.S. veterinarians and producers about their experiences and opinions regarding RWA production. Veterinarians, farmers, ranchers, producers, and other stakeholders involved in raising broilers, turkeys, swine, beef cattle or dairy cattle were surveyed. Of the 565 completed responses received, 442 self-reported as practicing veterinarians or producers. Just over half of respondents reported having past or current experience with RWA programs. The main indicated reasons for raising animals without antibiotics were market driven; switching to RWA production was less commonly made for health-related reasons, such as to reduce antibiotic resistance or to improve animal health and welfare. Although respondents felt that RWA production has negative impacts on animal health and welfare, they overwhelmingly (>70%) indicated that the customer (retailer/restaurant/food service) believes that animal and health welfare will be significantly improved. Veterinarians and producers indicated that RWA programs will increase production costs with questionable effect on meat, egg or dairy consumer demand. Many respondents felt that there are times when the RWA label takes priority over animal health and welfare. Respondents generally felt that there was a need for increased auditing/assessment of animal health and welfare in RWA systems.
| S-EPMC6910073 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Building on previous research on the use of macroeconomic factors for conflict prediction and using data on political instability provided by the Political Instability Task Force, this article proposes two minimal forecasting models of political instability optimised to have the greatest possible predictive power for one-year and two-year event horizons, while still making predictions that are fully explainable. Both models employ logistic regression and use just three predictors: polity code (a measure of government type), infant mortality, and years of stability (i.e., years since the last instability event). These models make predictions for 176 countries on a country-year basis and achieve AUPRC's of 0.108 and 0.115 for the one-year and two-year models respectively. They use public data with ongoing availability so are readily reproducible. They use Monte Carlo simulations to construct confidence intervals for their predictions and are validated by testing their predictions for a set of reference years separate from the set of reference years used to train them. This validation shows that the models are not overfitted but suggests that some of the previous models in the literature may have been. The models developed in this article are able to explain their predictions by showing, for a given prediction, which predictors were the most influential and by using counterfactuals to show how the predictions would have been altered had these predictors taken different values. These models are compared to models created by lasso regression and it is shown that they have at least as good predictive power but that their predictions can be more readily explained. Because policy makers are more likely to be influenced by models whose predictions can explained, the more interpretable a model is the more likely it is to influence policy.
| S-EPMC8321219 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rates of food insecurity have increased substantially in the United States (US), and more families are turning to the charitable food system to help meet their needs. Prior studies have examined the nutritional quality of foods offered through food banks, but little is known about what government policies may shape the healthy food donation landscape. The purpose of this study was to review US federal policies that impact food and beverage donations to food banks and assess whether policies encourage healthy food donations. In spring 2020, two researchers independently reviewed federal food and beverage donation policies using predefined search terms in two legal databases. We identified six categories of policies based on the existing food donation literature and themes that emerged in the policy review. We identified 42 federal policies spanning six categories that addressed food and beverage donations to food banks. The largest category was "government programs," with 19 (45%) policies. The next largest category was "donation via schools," with 12 (29%) policies. However, no policies specifically addressed the nutritional quality of food donations. There is an opportunity for the federal government to strengthen food bank donation policies and improve the nutritional quality of donated foods and beverages.
| S-EPMC7762564 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Resilience has become an important concept in urban governance, yet, the policies that cities actually adopt and implement to build resilience remain largely unknown. The lack of empirical studies on resilience policies hinders our ability to develop theory, ask new questions, and test hypotheses. The goal of this paper is to quantify and compare policies and programs of the 101 largest cities in the U.S. that tangibly affect resilience. We develop a set of resilience policies and then search government websites for evidence of adoption of those policies. To explore patterns of policy adoption, we conduct factor analysis and correlation. We find that resilience does not coalesce around any particular sets of programs. Instead, resilience is a flexible concept, modified to address local context. Substantive groupings of policies do not explain policy adoption. Different dimensions such as funding and level of needed commitment may better explain empirical patterns of policy adoption. Across cities, greater attention must be dedicated to addressing drivers of social vulnerability and climate change impacts. By examining what cities are doing and whether there are underlying patterns to the policies they pursue, we tackle basic empirical questions of how to make sense of the evolving resilience landscape.
| S-EPMC8605798 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rebuilding depleted fish populations is a priority of modern fisheries management. In the U.S., strong statutory mandates extend to both the goals and process by which stocks are to be rebuilt. However, the National Standard Guidelines that govern the implementation of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act may change to increase flexibility in rebuilding requirements. In this study we evaluate performance of the status quo approach to fish stock rebuilding in the United States against 3 alternatives that have been proposed to improve rebuilding outcomes. These alternatives either simplify the analytical requirements of rebuilding analyses or apply 'best practices' in fisheries management, thereby avoiding the need for rebuilding analyses altogether. We use a Management Strategy Evaluation framework to evaluate rebuilding options across 6 fish life history types and 5 possible real-world fishery scenarios that include options for stock assessment quality, multiple fleets, and the degree to which the stocks are overfished at the start of the analysis. We show that the status quo rebuilding plan and a harvest control rule that reduces harvest rates at low stock size generally achieve the best rebuilding outcomes across all life-history types and fishery scenarios. Both approaches constrain fishing in the short term, but achieve high catches in the medium and long term as stocks rebuild to productive levels. These results support a growing body of literature that indicates that efforts to end overfishing early pay off in the medium- to long-term with higher cumulative catches than the alternative.
| S-EPMC4711967 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There is considerable concern about the role that social media, such as Facebook and Twitter, play in promoting misperceptions during political campaigns. These technologies are widely used, and inaccurate information flowing across them has a high profile. This research uses three-wave panel surveys conducted with representative samples of Americans during both the 2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential elections to assess whether use of social media for political information promoted endorsement of falsehoods about major party candidates or important campaign issues. Fixed effects regression helps ensure that observed effects are not due to individual differences. Results indicate that social media use had a small but significant influence on misperceptions about President Obama in the 2012 election, and that this effect was most pronounced among strong partisans. Social media had no effect on belief accuracy about the Republican candidate in that election. The 2016 survey focused on campaign issues. There is no evidence that social media use influenced belief accuracy about these topics in aggregate, but Facebook users were unique. Social media use by this group reduced issue misperceptions relative to those who only used other social media. These results demonstrate that social media can alter citizens' willingness to endorse falsehoods during an election, but that the effects are often small.
| S-EPMC6436681 | biostudies-literature