Project description:The emergence of new technologies to synthesize and analyze big data with high-performance computing has increased our capacity to more accurately predict crop yields. Recent research has shown that machine learning (ML) can provide reasonable predictions faster and with higher flexibility compared to simulation crop modeling. However, a single machine learning model can be outperformed by a "committee" of models (machine learning ensembles) that can reduce prediction bias, variance, or both and is able to better capture the underlying distribution of the data. Yet, there are many aspects to be investigated with regard to prediction accuracy, time of the prediction, and scale. The earlier the prediction during the growing season the better, but this has not been thoroughly investigated as previous studies considered all data available to predict yields. This paper provides a machine leaning based framework to forecast corn yields in three US Corn Belt states (Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa) considering complete and partial in-season weather knowledge. Several ensemble models are designed using blocked sequential procedure to generate out-of-bag predictions. The forecasts are made in county-level scale and aggregated for agricultural district and state level scales. Results show that the proposed optimized weighted ensemble and the average ensemble are the most precise models with RRMSE of 9.5%. Stacked LASSO makes the least biased predictions (MBE of 53 kg/ha), while other ensemble models also outperformed the base learners in terms of bias. On the contrary, although random k-fold cross-validation is replaced by blocked sequential procedure, it is shown that stacked ensembles perform not as good as weighted ensemble models for time series data sets as they require the data to be non-IID to perform favorably. Comparing our proposed model forecasts with the literature demonstrates the acceptable performance of forecasts made by our proposed ensemble model. Results from the scenario of having partial in-season weather knowledge reveals that decent yield forecasts with RRMSE of 9.2% can be made as early as June 1st. Moreover, it was shown that the proposed model performed better than individual models and benchmark ensembles at agricultural district and state-level scales as well as county-level scale. To find the marginal effect of each input feature on the forecasts made by the proposed ensemble model, a methodology is suggested that is the basis for finding feature importance for the ensemble model. The findings suggest that weather features corresponding to weather in weeks 18-24 (May 1st to June 1st) are the most important input features.

Project description:Characterization of protein complexes, i.e. sets of proteins assembling into a single larger physical entity, is important, as such assemblies play many essential roles in cells such as gene regulation. From networks of protein-protein interactions, potential protein complexes can be identified computationally through the application of community detection methods, which flag groups of entities interacting with each other in certain patterns. Most community detection algorithms tend to be unsupervised and assume that communities are dense network subgraphs, which is not always true, as protein complexes can exhibit diverse network topologies. The few existing supervised machine learning methods are serial and can potentially be improved in terms of accuracy and scalability by using better-suited machine learning models and parallel algorithms. Here, we present Super.Complex, a distributed, supervised AutoML-based pipeline for overlapping community detection in weighted networks. We also propose three new evaluation measures for the outstanding issue of comparing sets of learned and known communities satisfactorily. Super.Complex learns a community fitness function from known communities using an AutoML method and applies this fitness function to detect new communities. A heuristic local search algorithm finds maximally scoring communities, and a parallel implementation can be run on a computer cluster for scaling to large networks. On a yeast protein-interaction network, Super.Complex outperforms 6 other supervised and 4 unsupervised methods. Application of Super.Complex to a human protein-interaction network with ~8k nodes and ~60k edges yields 1,028 protein complexes, with 234 complexes linked to SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 virus, with 111 uncharacterized proteins present in 103 learned complexes. Super.Complex is generalizable with the ability to improve results by incorporating domain-specific features. Learned community characteristics can also be transferred from existing applications to detect communities in a new application with no known communities. Code and interactive visualizations of learned human protein complexes are freely available at: https://sites.google.com/view/supercomplex/super-complex-v3-0.

Dataset Information

Forecasting molecular dynamics energetics of polymers in solution from supervised machine learning.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets