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Statistical methods for linking geostatistical maps and transmission models: Application to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa.

ABSTRACT: Infectious diseases remain one of the major causes of human mortality and suffering. Mathematical models have been established as an important tool for capturing the features that drive the spread of the disease, predicting the progression of an epidemic and hence guiding the development of strategies to control it. Another important area of epidemiological interest is the development of geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatially referenced prevalence surveys. Maps of prevalence are useful, not only for enabling a more precise disease risk stratification, but also for guiding the planning of more reliable spatial control programmes by identifying affected areas. Despite the methodological advances that have been made in each area independently, efforts to link transmission models and geostatistical maps have been limited. Motivated by this fact, we developed a Bayesian approach that combines fine-scale geostatistical maps of disease prevalence with transmission models to provide quantitative, spatially-explicit projections of the current and future impact of control programs against a disease. These estimates can then be used at a local level to identify the effectiveness of suggested intervention schemes and allow investigation of alternative strategies. The methodology has been applied to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa to provide estimates of the impact of different intervention strategies against the disease.

SUBMITTER: Touloupou P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9205338 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Statistical methods for linking geostatistical maps and transmission models: Application to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa.

Touloupou Panayiota P Retkute Renata R Hollingsworth T Déirdre TD Spencer Simon E F SEF

Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology 20201121

Infectious diseases remain one of the major causes of human mortality and suffering. Mathematical models have been established as an important tool for capturing the features that drive the spread of the disease, predicting the progression of an epidemic and hence guiding the development of strategies to control it. Another important area of epidemiological interest is the development of geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatially referenced prevalence surveys. Maps of prevale ...[more]

PMID: 35691660

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Project description:There is increasing interest to control or eradicate the major neglected tropical diseases. Accurate modelling of the geographic distributions of parasitic infections will be crucial to this endeavour. We used 664 community level infection prevalence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with eight environmental variables, altitude and population density, and a multivariate Bayesian generalized linear spatial model that allows explicit accounting for spatial autocorrelation and incorporation of uncertainty in input data and model parameters, to construct the first spatially-explicit map describing LF prevalence distribution in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against predictions made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA climate models for 2050 to predict the likely distributions of LF under future climate and population changes. We show that LF prevalence is strongly influenced by spatial autocorrelation between locations but is only weakly associated with environmental covariates. Infection prevalence, however, is found to be related to variations in population density. All associations with key environmental/demographic variables appear to be complex and non-linear. LF prevalence is predicted to be highly heterogenous across Africa, with high prevalences (>20%) estimated to occur primarily along coastal West and East Africa, and lowest prevalences predicted for the central part of the continent. Error maps, however, indicate a need for further surveys to overcome problems with data scarcity in the latter and other regions. Analysis of future changes in prevalence indicates that population growth rather than climate change per se will represent the dominant factor in the predicted increase/decrease and spread of LF on the continent. We indicate that these results could play an important role in aiding the development of strategies that are best able to achieve the goals of parasite elimination locally and globally in a manner that may also account for the effects of future climate change on parasitic infection.

Project description:BackgroundIn 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that Malawi had successfully eliminated lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem. Understanding clinical case distributions at a national and sub-national level is important, so essential care packages can be provided to individuals living with LF symptoms. This study aimed to develop a national database and map of LF clinical cases across Malawi using geostatistical modelling approaches, programme-identified clinical cases, antigenaemia prevalence and climate information.MethodologyLF clinical cases identified through programme house-to-house surveys across 90 sub-district administrative boundaries (Traditional Authority (TA)) and antigenaemia prevalence from 57 sampled villages in Malawi were used in a two-step geostatistical modelling process to predict LF clinical cases across all TAs of the country. First, we modelled antigenaemia prevalence in relation to climate covariates to predict nationwide antigenaemia prevalence. Second, we modelled clinical cases for unmapped TAs based on our antigenaemia prevalence spatial estimates.Principle findingsThe models estimated 20,938 (95% CrI 18,091 to 24,071) clinical cases in unmapped TAs (70.3%) in addition to the 8,856 (29.7%), programme-identified cases in mapped TAs. In total, the overall national number of LF clinical cases was estimated to be 29,794 (95% CrI 26,957 to 32,927). The antigenaemia prevalence and clinical case mapping and modelling found the highest burden of disease in Chikwawa and Nsanje districts in the Southern Region and Karonga district in the Northern Region of the country.ConclusionsThe models presented in this study have facilitated the development of the first national LF clinical case database and map in Malawi, the first endemic country in sub-Saharan Africa. It highlights the value of using existing LF antigenaemia prevalence and clinical case data together with modelling approaches to produce estimates that may be used for the WHO dossier requirements, to help target limited resources and implement long-term health strategies.

Project description:BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is among the 10 neglected tropical diseases targeted for control or elimination by 2020. For LF elimination, the World Health Organization (WHO) has proposed a comprehensive strategy including (i) interruption of LF transmission through large-scale annual treatment (or mass drug administration (MDA)) of all eligible individuals in endemic areas, and (ii) alleviation of LF-associated suffering through morbidity management and disability prevention. In Cameroon, once-yearly mass administration of ivermectin and albendazole has been implemented since 2008. The aim of this study was to assess progress towards the elimination goal, looking specifically at the impact of six rounds of MDA on LF transmission in northern Cameroon.MethodologyThe study was conducted in the North and Far North Regions of Cameroon. Five health districts that successfully completed six rounds of MDA (defined as achieving a treatment coverage ≥ 65% each year) and reported no positive results for Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariaemia during routine surveys following the fifth MDA were grouped into three evaluation units (EU) according to WHO criteria. LF transmission was assessed through a community-based transmission assessment survey (TAS) using an immunochromatographic test (ICT) for the detection of circulating filarial antigen (CFA) in children aged 5-8 years old.Principal findingsA total of 5292 children (male/female ratio 1.04) aged 5-8 years old were examined in 97 communities. Positive CFA results were observed in 2, 8 and 11 cases, with a CFA prevalence of 0.13% (95% CI: 0.04-0.46) in EU#1, 0.57% (95% CI: 0.32-1.02) in EU#2, and 0.45% (95% CI: 0.23-0.89) in EU#3.Conclusion/significanceThe positive CFA cases were below WHO defined critical cut-off thresholds for stopping treatment and suggest that transmission can no longer be sustained. Post-MDA surveillance activities should be organized to evaluate whether recrudescence can occur.

Project description:BackgroundIn Uganda, malaria and lymphatic filariasis (causative agent Wuchereria bancrofti) are transmitted by the same vector species of Anopheles mosquitoes, and thus are likely to share common environmental risk factors and overlap in geographical space. In a comprehensive nationwide survey in 2000-2003 the geographical distribution of W. bancrofti was assessed by screening school-aged children for circulating filarial antigens (CFA). Concurrently, blood smears were examined for malaria parasites. In this study, the resultant malariological data are analysed for the first time and the CFA data re-analysed in order to identify risk factors, produce age-stratified prevalence maps for each infection, and to define the geographical patterns of Plasmodium sp. and W. bancrofti co-endemicity.MethodsLogistic regression models were fitted separately for Plasmodium sp. and W. bancrofti within a Bayesian framework. Models contained covariates representing individual-level demographic effects, school-level environmental effects and location-based random effects. Several models were fitted assuming different random effects to allow for spatial structuring and to capture potential non-linearity in the malaria- and filariasis-environment relation. Model-based risk predictions at unobserved locations were obtained via Bayesian predictive distributions for the best fitting models. Maps of predicted hyper-endemic malaria and filariasis were furthermore overlaid in order to define areas of co-endemicity.ResultsPlasmodium sp. parasitaemia was found to be highly endemic in most of Uganda, with an overall population adjusted parasitaemia risk of 47.2% in the highest risk age-sex group (boys 5-9 years). High W. bancrofti prevalence was predicted for a much more confined area in northern Uganda, with an overall population adjusted infection risk of 7.2% in the highest risk age-group (14-19 year olds). Observed overall prevalence of individual co-infection was 1.1%, and the two infections overlap geographically with an estimated number of 212,975 children aged 5 - 9 years living in hyper-co-endemic transmission areas.ConclusionsThe empirical map of malaria parasitaemia risk for Uganda presented in this paper is the first based on coherent, national survey data, and can serve as a baseline to guide and evaluate the continuous implementation of control activities. Furthermore, geographical areas of overlap with hyper-endemic W. bancrofti transmission have been identified to help provide a better informed platform for integrated control.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is widely endemic in Côte d'Ivoire, and elimination as public health problem (EPHP) is based on annual mass drug administration (MDA) using ivermectin and albendazole. To guide EPHP efforts, we evaluated Wuchereria bancrofti infection indices among humans, and mosquito vectors after four rounds of MDA in four cross-border health districts of Côte d'Ivoire. METHODOLOGY:We monitored people and mosquitoes for W. bancrofti infections in the cross-border health districts of Aboisso, Bloléquin, Odienné and Ouangolodougou, Côte d'Ivoire. W. bancrofti circulating filarial antigen (CFA) was identified using filariasis test strips, and antigen-positive individuals were screened for microfilaremia. Moreover, filarial mosquito vectors were sampled using window exit traps and pyrethrum sprays, and identified morphologically at species level. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and Culex quinquefasciatus females were analyzed for W. bancrofti infection using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Overall, we found a substantial decline in W. bancrofti infection indices after four rounds of MDA compared to pre-MDA baseline data. CFA prevalence fell from 3.38-5.50% during pre-MDA to 0.00-1.53% after MDA interventions. No subjects had detectable levels of CFA in Ouangolodougou. Moreover, post-MDA CFA prevalence was very low, and below the 1% elimination threshold in Aboisso (0.19%) and Odienné (0.49%). Conversely, CFA prevalence remained above 1% in Bloléquin (1.53%). W. bancrofti microfilariae (Mf) were not found in Aboisso, Bloléquin, and Ouangolodougou, except for Odienné with low prevalence (0.16%; n = 613) and microfilaremia of 32.0 Mf/mL. No An. gambiae s.l. and Cx. quinquefasciatus pools were infected with W. bancrofti in Bloléquin and Ouangolodougou, while they exhibited low infection rates in Aboisso (1% and 0.07%), and Odienné (0.08% and 0.08%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS:In cross-border areas of Côte d'Ivoire, LF infection indices in humans and mosquito vectors substantially declined after four rounds of MDA. CFA prevalence fell under the World Health Organization (WHO)-established threshold (1%) in Aboisso, Ouangolodougou and Odienné. Moreover, W. bancrofti prevalence in mosquitoes was lower than WHO-established threshold (2%) in all areas. This might suggest the interruption of W. bancrofti transmission, and possible MDA cessation. However, a formal transmission assessment survey (TAS) and molecular xenomonitoring in mosquito vectors should be implemented before eventual MDA cessation. However, MDA should pursue in Bloléquin where W. bancrofti infection prevalence remained above 1%. Our results provided important ramifications for LF control efforts towards EPHP in Côte d'Ivoire.

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Statistical methods for linking geostatistical maps and transmission models: Application to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa.

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Statistical methods for linking geostatistical maps and transmission models: Application to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa.

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