Transferability of genetic risk scores in African populations.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kamiza AB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9205766 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Transferability of genetic risk scores in African populations.
Kamiza Abram B AB Toure Sounkou M SM Vujkovic Marijana M Machipisa Tafadzwa T Soremekun Opeyemi S OS Kintu Christopher C Corpas Manuel M Pirie Fraser F Young Elizabeth E Gill Dipender D Sandhu Manjinder S MS Kaleebu Pontiano P Nyirenda Moffat M Motala Ayesha A AA Chikowore Tinashe T Fatumo Segun S
Nature medicine 20220602 6
The poor transferability of genetic risk scores (GRSs) derived from European ancestry data in diverse populations is a cause of concern. We set out to evaluate whether GRSs derived from data of African American individuals and multiancestry data perform better in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to European ancestry-derived scores. Using summary statistics from the Million Veteran Program (MVP), we showed that GRSs derived from data of African American individuals enhance polygenic prediction o ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThere is growing support for the use of genetic risk scores (GRS) in routine clinical settings. Due to the limited diversity of current genomic discovery samples, there are concerns that the predictive power of GRS will be limited in non-European ancestry populations. GRS for cardiometabolic traits were evaluated in sub-Saharan Africans in comparison with African Americans and European Americans.MethodsWe evaluated the predictive utility of GRS for 12 cardiometabolic traits in sub-Saharan Africans (AF; n = 5200), African Americans (AA; n = 9139) and European Americans (EUR; n = 9594). GRS were constructed as weighted sums of the number of risk alleles. Predictive utility was assessed using the additional phenotypic variance explained and the increase in discriminatory ability over traditional risk factors [age, sex and body mass index (BMI)], with adjustment for ancestry-derived principal components.ResultsAcross all traits, GRS showed up to a 5-fold and 20-fold greater predictive utility in EUR relative to AA and AF, respectively. Predictive utility was most consistent for lipid traits, with percentage increase in explained variation attributable to GRS ranging from 10.6% to 127.1% among EUR, 26.6% to 65.8% among AA and 2.4% to 37.5% among AF. These differences were recapitulated in the discriminatory power, whereby the predictive utility of GRS was 4-fold greater in EUR relative to AA and up to 44-fold greater in EUR relative to AF. Obesity and blood pressure traits showed a similar pattern of greater predictive utility among EUR.ConclusionsThis work demonstrates the poorer performance of GRS in AF and highlights the need to improve representation of multiple ethnic populations in genomic studies to ensure equitable clinical translation of GRS.
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Project description:Genome-wide variation data with millions of genetic markers have become commonplace. However, the potential for interpretation and application of these data for clinical assessment of outcomes of interest, and prediction of disease risk, is currently not fully realized. Many common complex diseases now have numerous, well-established risk loci and likely harbor many genetic determinants with effects too small to be detected at genome-wide levels of statistical significance. A simple and intuitive approach for converting genetic data to a predictive measure of disease susceptibility is to aggregate the effects of these loci into a single measure, the genetic risk score. Here, we describe some common methods and software packages for calculating genetic risk scores and polygenic risk scores, with focus on studies of common complex diseases. We review the basic information needed, as well as important considerations for constructing genetic risk scores, including specific requirements for phenotypic and genetic data, and limitations in their application. © 2019 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Project description:BackgroundCardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a major health concern in Africa. Improved identification and treatment of high-risk individuals can reduce adverse health outcomes. Current CVD risk calculators are largely unvalidated in African populations and overlook genetic factors. Polygenic scores (PGS) can enhance risk prediction by measuring genetic susceptibility to CVD, but their effectiveness in genetically diverse populations is limited by a European-ancestry bias. To address this, we developed models integrating genetic data and conventional risk factors to assess the risk of developing cardiometabolic outcomes in African populations.MethodsWe used summary statistics from a genome-wide association meta-analysis (n = 14,126) in African populations to derive novel genome-wide PGS for 14 cardiometabolic traits in an independent African target sample (Africa Wits-INDEPTH Partnership for Genomic Research (AWI-Gen), n = 10,603). Regression analyses assessed relationships between each PGS and corresponding cardiometabolic trait, and seven CVD outcomes (CVD, heart attack, stroke, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and obesity). The predictive utility of the genetic data was evaluated using elastic net models containing multiple PGS (MultiPGS) and reference-projected principal components of ancestry (PPCs). An integrated risk prediction model incorporating genetic and conventional risk factors was developed. Nested cross-validation was used when deriving elastic net models to enhance generalisability.ResultsOur African-specific PGS displayed significant but variable within- and cross- trait prediction (max.R2 = 6.8%, p = 1.86 × 10-173). Significantly associated PGS with dyslipidaemia included the PGS for total cholesterol (logOR = 0.210, SE = 0.022, p = 2.18 × 10-21) and low-density lipoprotein (logOR = - 0.141, SE = 0.022, p = 1.30 × 10-20); with hypertension, the systolic blood pressure PGS (logOR = 0.150, SE = 0.045, p = 8.34 × 10-4); and multiple PGS associated with obesity: body mass index (max. logOR = 0.131, SE = 0.031, p = 2.22 × 10-5), hip circumference (logOR = 0.122, SE = 0.029, p = 2.28 × 10-5), waist circumference (logOR = 0.013, SE = 0.098, p = 8.13 × 10-4) and weight (logOR = 0.103, SE = 0.029, p = 4.89 × 10-5). Elastic net models incorporating MultiPGS and PPCs significantly improved prediction over MultiPGS alone. Models including genetic data and conventional risk factors were more predictive than conventional risk models alone (dyslipidaemia: R2 increase = 2.6%, p = 4.45 × 10-12; hypertension: R2 increase = 2.6%, p = 2.37 × 10-13; obesity: R2 increase = 5.5%, 1.33 × 10-34).ConclusionsIn African populations, CVD and associated cardiometabolic trait prediction models can be improved by incorporating ancestry-aligned PGS and accounting for ancestry. Combining PGS with conventional risk factors further enhances prediction over traditional models based on conventional factors. Incorporating data from target populations can improve the generalisability of international predictive models for CVD and associated traits in African populations.
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Project description:Individuals with South Asian ancestry have a higher risk of heart disease than other groups but have been largely excluded from genetic research. Using data from 22,000 British Pakistani and Bangladeshi individuals with linked electronic health records from the Genes & Health cohort, we conducted genome-wide association studies of coronary artery disease and its key risk factors. Using power-adjusted transferability ratios, we found evidence for transferability for the majority of cardiometabolic loci powered to replicate. The performance of polygenic scores was high for lipids and blood pressure, but lower for BMI and coronary artery disease. Adding a polygenic score for coronary artery disease to clinical risk factors showed significant improvement in reclassification. In Mendelian randomisation using transferable loci as instruments, our findings were consistent with results in European-ancestry individuals. Taken together, trait-specific transferability of trait loci between populations is an important consideration with implications for risk prediction and causal inference.
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