Network information analysis reveals risk perception transmission in a behaviour-influenza dynamics system.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Liao CM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9206797 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BACKGROUND: The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics in Italy was characterized by a notable pattern: as it emerged from the analysis of influenza-like illness data, after an initial period (September-mid-October 2009) characterized by a slow exponential increase in the weekly incidence, a sudden and sharp increase of the growth rate was observed by mid-October. The aim here is to understand whether spontaneous behavioral changes in the population could be responsible for such a pattern of epidemic spread. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In order to face this issue, a mathematical model of influenza transmission, accounting for spontaneous behavioral changes driven by cost/benefit considerations on the perceived risk of infection, is proposed and validated against empirical epidemiological data. The performed investigation revealed that an initial overestimation of the risk of infection in the general population, possibly induced by the high concern for the emergence of a new influenza pandemic, results in a pattern of spread compliant with the observed one. This finding is also supported by the analysis of antiviral drugs purchase over the epidemic period. Moreover, by assuming a generation time of 2.5 days, the initially diffuse misperception of the risk of infection led to a relatively low value of the reproductive number , which increased to in the subsequent phase of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study highlights that spontaneous behavioral changes in the population, not accounted by the large majority of influenza transmission models, can not be neglected to correctly inform public health decisions. In fact, individual choices can drastically affect the epidemic spread, by altering timing, dynamics and overall number of cases.
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Project description:Risk perception plays an important role in testing behaviour for sexually transmitted infections, but is rarely included in mathematical models exploring the impact of testing. We explored the impact of incorporating sexual behaviour (SB), risk perception (RP) and differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups on prevalence, using chlamydia as an example. We developed a pair model with a susceptible-infected-susceptible structure representing heterosexuals aged 16-26 years. The effect of testing on chlamydia prevalence was compared between a model with only SB (SB model) and a model with SB and RP (SB-RP model). In the SB-RP model, a scenario without differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups was compared to scenarios with differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups. Introducing testing into the SB-RP model resulted in a slightly smaller reduction in chlamydia prevalence (-38.0%) as compared to the SB model (-40.4%). In the SB-RP model, the scenario without differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups overestimated the reduction in chlamydia prevalence (with 4.8%), especially in the group with high SB and low RP (19.8%). We conclude that mathematical models incorporating RP and differential testing uptake in SB-RP groups improve the impact assessment of testing and treatment on chlamydia prevalence.
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Project description:Prevailing theories suggests that cortical regions responsible for face perception operate in a serial, feed-forward fashion. Here, we utilize invasive human electrophysiology to evaluate serial models of face-processing via measurements of cortical activation, functional connectivity, and cortico-cortical evoked potentials. We find that task-dependent changes in functional connectivity between face-selective regions in the inferior occipital (f-IOG) and fusiform gyrus (f-FG) are bidirectional, not feed-forward, and emerge following feed-forward input from early visual cortex (EVC) to both of these regions. Cortico-cortical evoked potentials similarly reveal independent signal propagations between EVC and both f-IOG and f-FG. These findings are incompatible with serial models, and support a parallel, distributed network underpinning face perception in humans.
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Project description:Each person expresses a potentially unique subset of ? 400 different olfactory receptor subtypes. Given that the receptors we express partially determine the odors we smell, it follows that each person may have a unique nose; to capture this, we devised a sensitive test of olfactory perception we termed the "olfactory fingerprint." Olfactory fingerprints relied on matrices of perceived odorant similarity derived from descriptors applied to the odorants. We initially fingerprinted 89 individuals using 28 odors and 54 descriptors. We found that each person had a unique olfactory fingerprint (P < 10(-10)), which was odor specific but descriptor independent. We could identify individuals from this pool using randomly selected sets of 7 odors and 11 descriptors alone. Extrapolating from this data, we determined that using 34 odors and 35 descriptors we could individually identify each of the 7 billion people on earth. Olfactory perception, however, fluctuates over time, calling into question our proposed perceptual readout of presumably stable genetic makeup. To test whether fingerprints remain informative despite this temporal fluctuation, building on the linkage between olfactory receptors and HLA, we hypothesized that olfactory perception may relate to HLA. We obtained olfactory fingerprints and HLA typing for 130 individuals, and found that olfactory fingerprint matching using only four odorants was significantly related to HLA matching (P < 10(-4)), such that olfactory fingerprints can save 32% of HLA tests in a population screen (P < 10(-6)). In conclusion, a precise measure of olfactory perception reveals meaningful nonolfactory genetic information.
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Project description:BackgroundGenerally, vaccination uptake in Japan lags behind World Health Organization targets.ObjectiveThis study aimed to understand how risk information and advice affect intention to receive vaccinations.MethodsThis study had a within-subjects design. An online survey based on the Health Belief Model was sent to 2501 Japanese individuals (≧20 years) to assess the intention to be vaccinated for influenza and rubella after receiving minor and severe risk information and hypothetical advice about each vaccine. Regression analysis was used to measure changes in intentions to receive each vaccination after being provided with (1) risk information about each vaccine and (2) hypothetical encouragement and discouragement to be vaccinated.Main outcomesThe main outcomes included changes in vaccination intentions from baseline.ResultsForty-one percent (N = 1030) of those sent the survey completed it. At baseline, 43% and 65% of the respondents intended to have influenza and rubella vaccinations, respectively. Being provided with information about severe risks and susceptibility increased the intention to have the influenza vaccination among females in their 40s. Receiving inaccurate and discouraging information from one's mother significantly decreased the intention to have the rubella vaccination. Women 50 and older were more likely to intend not to have vaccination for rubella. Severe risk information decreased rubella vaccination intention in all age groups, except women in their 30s and 40s (p < .05).ConclusionFor both vaccinations, older individuals demonstrated vaccine hesitancy. This group requires tailored messaging to help them understand their vulnerability (to influenza) and their role in transmission (for rubella) to encourage uptake of essential vaccinations.Patient or public contributionMembers of the Japanese public responded to our online questionnaire on vaccination risk.
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