Dataset Information

Predicting mortality in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA): development of a four-year index and comparison with international measures.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

We aimed to replicate existing international (US and UK) mortality indices using Irish data. We developed and validated a four-year mortality index for adults aged 50 + in Ireland and compared performance with these international indices. We then extended this model by including additional predictors (self-report and healthcare utilization) and compared its performance to our replication model.

Methods

Eight thousand one hundred seventy-four participants in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing were split for development (n = 4,121) and validation (n = 4,053). Six baseline predictor categories were examined (67 variables total): demographics; cardiovascular-related illness; non-cardiovascular illness; health and lifestyle variables; functional variables; self-report (wellbeing and social connectedness) and healthcare utilization. We identified variables independently associated with four-year mortality in the development cohort and attached these variables a weight according to strength of association. We summed the weights to calculate a single index score for each participant and evaluated predicted accuracy in the validation cohort.

Results

Our final 14-predictor (extended) model assigned risk points for: male (1pt); age (65-69: 2pts; 70-74: 4 pts; 75-79: 4pts; 80-84: 6pts; 85 + : 7pts); heart attack (1pt); cancer (3pts); smoked past age 30 (2pts); difficulty walking 100 m (2pts); difficulty using the toilet (3pts); difficulty lifting 10lbs (1pts); poor self-reported health (1pt); and hospital admission in previous year (1pt). Index discrimination was strong (ROC area = 0.78).

Discussion

Our index is predictive of four-year mortality in community-dwelling older Irish adults. Comparisons with the international indices show that our 12-predictor (replication) model performed well and suggests that generalisability is high. Our 14-predictor (extended) model showed modest improvements compared to the 12-predictor model.

SUBMITTER: Matthews S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9211047 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:End-of-life experience is a subject of significant policy interest. National longitudinal studies offer valuable opportunities to examine individual-level experiences. Ireland is an international leader in palliative and end-of-life care rankings. We aimed to describe the prevalence of modifiable problems (pain, falls, depression) in Ireland, and to evaluate associations with place of death, healthcare utilisation, and formal and informal costs in the last year of life. METHODS:The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) is a nationally representative sample of over-50-year-olds, recruited in Wave 1 (2009-2010) and participating in biannual assessment. In the event of a participant's death, TILDA approaches a close relative or friend to complete a voluntary interview on end-of-life experience. We evaluated associations using multinomial logistic regression for place of death, ordinary least squares for utilisation, and generalised linear models for costs. We identified 14 independent variables for regressions from a rich set of potential predictors. Of 516 confirmed deaths between Waves 1 and 3, the analytic sample contained 375 (73%) decedents for whom proxies completed an interview. RESULTS:There was high prevalence of modifiable problems pain (50%), depression (45%) and falls (41%). Those with a cancer diagnosis were more likely to die at home (relative risk ratio: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.3-4.8) or in an inpatient hospice (10.2; 2.7-39.2) than those without. Place of death and patterns of health care use were determined not only by clinical need, but other factors including age and household structure. Unpaid care accounted for 37% of all care received but access to this care, as well as place of death, may be adversely affected by living alone or in a rural area. Deficits in unpaid care are not balanced by higher formal care use. CONCLUSIONS:Despite Ireland's well-established palliative care services, clinical need is not the sole determinant of end-of-life experience. Cancer diagnosis and access to family supports were additional key determinants. Future policy reforms should revisit persistent inequities by diagnosis, which may be mitigated through comprehensive geriatric assessment in hospitals. Further consideration of policies to support unpaid carers is also warranted.

Project description:International evidence shows that people approaching end of life (EOL) have high prevalence of polypharmacy, including overprescribing. Overprescribing may have adverse side effects for mental and physical health and represents wasteful spending. Little is known about prescribing near EOL in Ireland. We aimed to describe the prevalence of two undesirable outcomes, and to identify factors associated with these outcomes: potentially questionable prescribing, and potentially inadequate prescribing, in the last year of life (LYOL). We used The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, a biennial nationally representative dataset on people aged 50+ in Ireland. We analysed a sub-sample of participants with high mortality risk and categorised their self-reported medication use as potentially questionable or potentially inadequate based on previous research. We identified mortality through the national death registry (died in <365 days versus not). We used descriptive statistics to quantify prevalence of our outcomes, and we used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with these outcomes. Of 525 observations, 401 (76%) had potentially inadequate and 294 (56%) potentially questionable medications. Of the 401 participants with potentially inadequate medications, 42 were in their LYOL. OF the 294 participants with potentially questionable medications, 26 were in their LYOL. One factor was significantly associated with potentially inadequate medications in LYOL: male (odds ratio (OR) 4.40, p = .004) Three factors were associated with potentially questionable medications in LYOL: male (OR 3.37, p = .002); three or more activities of daily living (ADLs) (OR 3.97, p = .003); and outpatient hospital visits (OR 1.03, p = .02). Thousands of older people die annually in Ireland with potentially inappropriate or questionable prescribing patterns. Gender differences for these outcomes are very large. Further work is needed to identify and reduce overprescribing near EOL in Ireland, particularly among men.