Diversity of options to eliminate fossil fuels and reach carbon neutrality across the entire European energy system.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Pickering B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9220955 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Carbon neutrality requires systematic transformations of both energy and metal systems. These transformations are not isolated but rather interlinked and interdependent, such that trade-offs between different strategies exist. Herein, we explore the critical interlinkages between energy and metal systems and further propose a circular metal-energy nexus to advance global coordinated actions towards a carbon-neutral future.
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Project description:Mapping suitable land for development is essential to land use planning efforts that aim to model, anticipate, and manage trade-offs between economic development and the environment. Previous land suitability assessments have generally focused on a few development sectors or lack consistent methodologies, thereby limiting our ability to plan for cumulative development pressures across geographic regions. Here, we generated 1-km spatially-explicit global land suitability maps, referred to as "development potential indices" (DPIs), for 13 sectors related to renewable energy (concentrated solar power, photovoltaic solar, wind, hydropower), fossil fuels (coal, conventional and unconventional oil and gas), mining (metallic, non-metallic), and agriculture (crop, biofuels expansion). To do so, we applied spatial multi-criteria decision analysis techniques that accounted for both resource potential and development feasibility. For each DPI, we examined both uncertainty and sensitivity, and spatially validated the map using locations of planned development. We illustrate how these DPIs can be used to elucidate potential individual sector expansion and cumulative development patterns.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Previous research suggests that providing generalized information about the health implications of air pollution from fossil fuels may be effective at promoting public support for a transition to cleaner sources of energy. We sought to extend that work by identifying the specific messages about the health implications of air pollution from fossil fuels that are most and least concerning to people, and whether rankings of concern vary among different audiences. We also hypothesized that reading the statements would influence people's attitudes and behavioral intentions in a manner supportive of a transition to cleaner sources of energy. METHODS:We conducted a survey with a diverse sample of U.S. adults (n = 1644) from a non-probability internet panel. Using maximum difference scaling, participants ranked a set of ten statements that revealed which statements were the most and least concerning to them. We also measured attitudes about air pollution and energy use before and after the ranking exercise to assess changes in opinion caused by cumulative exposure to the messages. RESULTS:Across all sub-groups examined, participants were most concerned by a message about the neurological impacts of air pollution on babies and children. After the ranking exercise, participants expressed increases in perceived health harm of air pollution and fossil fuels, a desire for more clean energy, and intention to engage in consumer advocacy to support clean energy. CONCLUSIONS:To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess how people respond to information about the neurological health harms of air pollution from fossil fuels. While efforts to communicate the cardio-pulmonary health harms of air pollution are well established, our study suggests that efforts should now be organized to communicate the neurological effects of air pollution from fossil fuels, especially the neuro-developmental effects on babies and children.
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Project description:A profound transformation of China's energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, we couple Monte Carlo analysis with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy model to generate 3,000 cases with different carbon peak times, technological evolution pathways and cumulative carbon budgets. The results show that if emissions peak in 2025, the carbon neutrality goal calls for a 45-62% electrification rate, 47-78% renewable energy in primary energy supply, 5.2-7.9 TW of solar and wind power, 1.5-2.7 PWh of energy storage usage and 64-1,649 MtCO2 of negative emissions, and synergistically reducing approximately 80% of local air pollutants compared to the present level in 2050. The emission peak time and cumulative carbon budget have significant impacts on the decarbonization pathways, technology choices, and transition costs. Early peaking reduces welfare losses and prevents overreliance on carbon removal technologies. Technology breakthroughs, production and consumption pattern changes, and policy enhancement are urgently required to achieve carbon neutrality.
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Project description:The rural energy transition is critical in China's efforts to achieve carbon neutrality and improve air quality. However, the costs and health benefits associated with the transition to carbon neutrality remain unclear. Here we explore the cost-effective transition pathways and air quality-related health impacts using an integrated energy-air quality-health modeling framework. We find that decarbonizing rural cooking and heating would triple contemporary energy consumption from 2014 to 2060, considerably reducing energy poverty nationwide. By 2060, electric cooking ranges and air-to-air heat pumps should be widely integrated, costing an additional 13 billion USD nationally in transformation costs, with ~40% concentrated in Shandong, Heilongjiang, Shanxi and Hebei provinces. Rural residential decarbonization would remarkably improve air quality in northern China, yielding substantial health co-benefits. Notably, monetized health benefits in most provinces are projected to offset transformation costs, except for certain relatively lower-development southwestern provinces, implying more financial support for rural residents in these areas will be needed.
| S-EPMC10541415 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We explore how renewable electricity production influences nuclear energy and fossil fuel use in the electricity sector for 109 nations from 1960-2015 and how such patterns change over time. We find that although a one-unit increase in the number of kWh produced from renewable sources does not appear to displace an equivalent number of kWh from fossil fuels, such an increase is associated with an equivalent reduction in the number of kWh drawn from nuclear sources between 1960 and 2015. However, further analyses indicate that there has been a trend toward displacement of fossil fuel sources by renewables, as well as an attenuation of the displacement of nuclear sources by renewables, since the late 1990s in nations with the capacity for nuclear electricity production. These findings suggest that social, political, and economic processes may prevent renewables from being deployed such that they decarbonize the existing electricity grid, especially outside of the 31 nations capable of producing electricity from nuclear energy sources.
| S-EPMC8777158 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Carbon neutrality by 2060 is the recent expression of China's international commitment to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions. Energy and chemical sectors, the two main contributors for carbon dioxide emissions in China, are the biggest bottlenecks for reaching the objective of carbon neutrality. Moreover, coal-to-ammonia production and coal-to-methanol production are the major CO2 emission process contributors in China's coal chemical sector. Herein, a possible route to the carbon neutral target based on energy-chemical nexus for electricity generation as well as methanol and ammonia production is proposed in this study. The most cost-effective solution for meeting the commitment is identified by considering regional variations in renewable and non-renewable resources and adopting an optimized regional cooperation. According to the roadmap presented in this study, an optimized combination of fossil fuels and renewable energies forming "blue energy economy" is feasible and promising.
| S-EPMC8188369 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The accurate determination of the carbon-neutrality capacity (CNC) of a region is crucial for developing policies related to emissions and climate change. However, a systematic diagnostic method for determining the CNC that considers the rock chemical weathering carbon sink (RCS) is lacking. Moreover, it is challenging but indispensable to establish a fast and practical index model to determine the CNC. Here, we selected Guizhou as the study area, used the methods for different types of carbon sinks, and constructed a CNC index (CNCI) model. We found that: (1) the carbonate rock chemical weathering carbon sink flux was 30.3 t CO2 km-2 yr-1. Guizhou accounted for 1.8% of the land area and contributed 5.4% of the carbonate chemical weathering carbon sink; (2) the silicate rock chemical weathering carbon sink and its flux were 1.44 × 103 t CO2 and 2.43 t CO2 km-2 yr-1, respectively; (3) the vegetation-soil ecosystem carbon sink and its flux were 1.37 × 108 t CO2 and 831.70 t CO2 km-2 yr-1, respectively; (4) the carbon emissions (CEs) were 280 Tg CO2, about 2.8% of the total for China; and (5) the total carbon sinks in Guizhou were 160 Tg CO2, with a CNCI of 57%, which is 4.8 times of China and 2.1 times of the world. In summary, we conducted a systematic diagnosis of the CNC considering the RCS and established a CNCI model. The results of this study have a strong implication and significance for national and global CNC determination and gap analysis.
| S-EPMC9937913 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite the known biochemical production of a range of aromatic compounds by plants and the presence of benzenoids in floral scents, the emissions of only a few benzenoid compounds have been reported from the biosphere to the atmosphere. Here, using evidence from measurements at aircraft, ecosystem, tree, branch and leaf scales, with complementary isotopic labeling experiments, we show that vegetation (leaves, flowers, and phytoplankton) emits a wide variety of benzenoid compounds to the atmosphere at substantial rates. Controlled environment experiments show that plants are able to alter their metabolism to produce and release many benzenoids under stress conditions. The functions of these compounds remain unclear but may be related to chemical communication and protection against stress. We estimate the total global secondary organic aerosol potential from biogenic benzenoids to be similar to that from anthropogenic benzenoids (~10 Tg y(-1)), pointing to the importance of these natural emissions in atmospheric physics and chemistry.
| S-EPMC4499884 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The goals set forth by the European Green Deal require extensive preparation and coordination of all stakeholders. As a valuable tool, energy scenarios can generate the necessary information for stakeholders to envision the right steps in preparing this transition. The manufacturing industries represent an especially important sector to investigate. They are responsible for both high energy consumption and GHG emission figures on the one hand side and provide great economic value for member countries on the other. We aim to provide a close investigation of all thirteen industrial subsectors that can be used as a solid information basis both for stakeholders within the manufacturing industries and policymakers. Our approach includes all industrial production processes. We achieve this by considering both transformation processes, such as blast furnaces or industrial power plants, and final energy-application. In addition, both scope 1 and 2 emissions of manufacturing industry are assessed in an effort to transparently indicate the interdependencies of industrial decarbonisation efforts with the overall energy system. We propose the integration of a novel stakeholder-based scenario, that puts special emphasis on first-hand information on mid to long-term planning of key industrial representatives, thereby going beyond existing scenario narratives (e.g., scenarios according to the European Monitoring Mechanism). Thus, a balanced deep decarbonisation scenario using best-available technologies can be compared with existing industry plans. To address these points, we have chosen Austria as a case study. Results indicate that industry stakeholders are in general agreement on their subsector-specific technology deployment and already envision investments towards a low-carbon pathway for their respective subsectors. While today's manufacturing industries rely at large on a great diversity of (mostly fossil) energy carrier supply, deeply decarbonised manufacturing industries of the future may be based on the following main energy carriers; electricity, CO2-neutral gases, and biomass. To mitigate emissions from geogenic sources, carbon capture technologies are needed. On the other hand, the synthesis of olefins in the chemical industry may provide a sink for CO2 assuming long-term use after production. In addition to the option of using it across subsectors, captured CO2 will have to be stored or sold to other economies. Comparison of the developed scenarios allows the identification of no-regret measures to enable climate neutrality by 2050 that should be deployed as soon as possible by push and pull incentives. The model results of the two transition scenarios show the need for technology promotion as well as infrastructure development needs and allow the identification of possible corridors, focal points, and fuel shifts - on the subsector level as well as in energy policy. Among others, the modelled magnitude of renewable energy consumption shows the need for swift expansion of existing national renewable energy potentials and energy infrastructure, especially for energy intensive industry regions. In light of the current energy consumption in other economic sectors (most notably in buildings or transport) and limited renewable potentials, large import shares of national gross domestic energy consumption are likely for Austria in the future.
| S-EPMC10864908 | biostudies-literature