Reducing opioid use disorder and overdose deaths in the United States: A dynamic modeling analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Stringfellow EJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9232111 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThe United States (U.S.) is experiencing an ongoing opioid crisis. Economic burden estimates that describe the impact of the crisis are needed when considering federal and state resources devoted to addressing overdoses. In this study, we estimate the societal costs for opioid use disorder and fatal overdose from all opioids in 2017.MethodsWe estimated costs of fatal overdose from all opioids and opioid use disorder based on the incidence of overdose deaths and the prevalence of past-year opioid use disorder for 2017. Incidence of fatal opioid overdose was obtained from the National Vital Statistics System; prevalence of past-year opioid use disorder was estimated from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health. Costs were estimated for health care, criminal justice and lost productivity. Costs for the reduced quality of life for opioid use disorder and life lost due to fatal opioid overdose were valued using U.S. Department of Health and Human Services guidelines for valuing reductions in morbidity and mortality.ResultsCosts for opioid use disorder and fatal opioid overdose in 2017 were estimated to be $1.02 trillion. The majority of the economic burden is due to reduced quality of life from opioid use disorder and the value of life lost due to fatal opioid overdose.ConclusionsThese estimates can assist decision makers in understanding the magnitude of opioid use disorder and fatal overdose. Knowing the magnitude and distribution of the economic burden can inform public policy, clinical practice, research, and prevention and response activities.
| S-EPMC8091480 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceDeaths due to opioid overdose have tripled in the last decade. Efforts to curb this trend have focused on restricting the prescription opioid supply; however, the near-term effects of such efforts are unknown.ObjectiveTo project effects of interventions to lower prescription opioid misuse on opioid overdose deaths from 2016 to 2025.Design, setting, and participantsThis system dynamics (mathematical) model of the US opioid epidemic projected outcomes of simulated individuals who engage in nonmedical prescription or illicit opioid use from 2016 to 2025. The analysis was performed in 2018 by retrospectively calibrating the model from 2002 to 2015 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.InterventionsComparison of interventions that would lower the incidence of prescription opioid misuse from 2016 to 2025 based on historical trends (a 7.5% reduction per year) and 50% faster than historical trends (an 11.3% reduction per year), vs a circumstance in which the incidence of misuse remained constant after 2015.Main outcomes and measuresOpioid overdose deaths from prescription and illicit opioids from 2016 to 2025 under each intervention.ResultsUnder the status quo, the annual number of opioid overdose deaths is projected to increase from 33 100 in 2015 to 81 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 63 600-101 700) in 2025 (a 147% increase from 2015). From 2016 to 2025, 700 400 (95% UI, 590 200-817 100) individuals in the United States are projected to die from opioid overdose, with 80% of the deaths attributable to illicit opioids. The number of individuals using illicit opioids is projected to increase by 61%-from 0.93 million (95% UI, 0.83-1.03 million) in 2015 to 1.50 million (95% UI, 0.98-2.22 million) by 2025. Across all interventions tested, further lowering the incidence of prescription opioid misuse from 2015 levels is projected to decrease overdose deaths by only 3.0% to 5.3%.Conclusions and relevanceThis study's findings suggest that interventions targeting prescription opioid misuse such as prescription monitoring programs may have a modest effect, at best, on the number of opioid overdose deaths in the near future. Additional policy interventions are urgently needed to change the course of the epidemic.
| S-EPMC6415966 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:The use of benzodiazepines or alcohol together with opioids increases overdose risk, but characterization of co-involvement by predominant opioid subtype is incomplete to date. Understanding the use of respiratory depressants in opioid overdose deaths (OODs) is important for prevention efforts and policy making. Objective:To assess the prevalence and number of alcohol- or benzodiazepine-involved OODs by opioid subtypes in the United States from 1999 to 2017. Design and Setting:This repeated cross-sectional analysis used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database of all opioid-involved poisoning deaths from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2017, for the United States. State-level binge drinking prevalence rates for 2015 to 2017 were obtained from the Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and benzodiazepine prescribing rates for 2012 (most recent available data) were obtained from IMS Health, a commercial database. Data were analyzed from July 10, 2018, to May 16, 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures:Prevalence of alcohol or benzodiazepine co-involvement for all OODs and by opioid subtype, nationally and by state. Results:From 1999 to 2017, 399 230 poisoning deaths involved opioids, of which 263 601 (66.0%) were male, and 204 560 (51.2%) were aged 35 to 54 years. Alcohol co-involvement for all opioid overdose deaths increased nonlinearly from 12.4% in 1999 to 14.7% in 2017. By opioid subtype, deaths involving heroin and synthetic opioids (eg, fentanyl; excluding methadone) had the highest alcohol co-involvement at 15.5% and 14.9%, respectively, in 2017. Benzodiazepine co-involvement in all OODs increased nonlinearly from 8.7% in 1999 to 21.0% in 2017. Benzodiazepines were present in 33.1% of prescription OODs and 17.1% of synthetic OODs in 2017. State-level rates of binge drinking were significantly correlated with alcohol co-involvement in all OODs (r = 0.34; P = .02). State benzodiazepine prescribing rates were significantly correlated with benzodiazepine co-involvement in all OODs (r = 0.57; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance:This study found that alcohol and benzodiazepine co-involvement in opioid-involved overdose deaths was common, varied by opioid subtype, and was associated with state-level binge drinking and benzodiazepine prescribing rates. These results may inform state policy initiatives in harm reduction and overdose prevention efforts.
| S-EPMC7146101 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC10869443 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The authors present 12-month and lifetime prevalence, correlates, psychiatric comorbidity, and treatment of nonmedical prescription opioid use (NMPOU) and DSM-5 NMPOU disorder (NMPOUD).Data were derived from the 2012-2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III (NESARC-III) (N = 36,309).Prevalences of 12-month and lifetime NMPOU were 4.1% and 11.3%, exceeding rates in the 2001-2002 NESARC (1.8%, 4.7%). Twelve-month and lifetime rates of DSM-5 NMPOUD were 0.9% and 2.1%. NESARC-III DSM-IV NMPOUD rates (0.8%, 2.9%) were greater than those observed in the 2001-2002 NESARC (0.4% and 1.4%). Rates of NMPOU were greater among men, but no sex differential was observed for NMPOUD. Prevalences of NMPOU and NMPOUD were generally greater among 18- to 64-year-old individuals, whites, and Native Americans, and individuals with lower socioeconomic status. Associations were observed between 12-month and lifetime NMPOU and NMPOUD and other drug use disorders, posttraumatic stress disorder, and borderline, schizotypal, and antisocial personality disorders; persistent depression and major depressive disorder (for NMPOU); and bipolar I disorder (for NMPOUD). Only 5.5% and 17.7% of individuals with 12-month NMPOU and NMPOUD were ever treated.NMPOU and NMPOUD have considerably increased over the past decade, are associated with a broad array of risk factors and comorbidities, and largely go untreated in the United States. More information on the determinants, characteristics, and outcomes of NMPOU and NMPOUD is needed to support evidence-based interventions and prevention.
| S-EPMC5555044 | biostudies-other
Project description:Opioid use disorder (OUD) is a chronic disease requiring long-term treatment and is associated with opioid overdose and increased risk of mortality. However, existing randomized clinical trials focused on short-term treatment engagement and detoxification rather than overdose or mortality risk due to limited follow-up time and ethical considerations. We used a hypothetical trial framework to conduct a retrospective cohort study to assess the effectiveness of time-varying buprenorphine-naloxone on opioid overdose and death. We identified 58,835 insured adult patients with OUD diagnosis in the US, 2010-2017. We fit a marginal structural model using inverse probability weighting methods to account for measured baseline and time-varying confounders, as well as selection bias due to possibly differential loss-to-follow-up. We found that receipt of buprenorphine-naloxone was associated with reduced risk of opioid overdose (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49, 0.91), death (HR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.08, 0.75), and overdose or death (HR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.40, 0.84). The E-value for death was 7.8, which was larger than the upper 95% CI of the association between each measured baseline variable and all-cause death, which implies that the unmeasured confounding itself may not explain away the estimated effect of treatment on the endpoint of all-cause mortality.
| S-EPMC9896393 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and aimsDespite the growing opioid overdose crisis, medication treatment for opioid use disorder remains uncommon. The comparative effectiveness of buprenorphine and naltrexone treatment in reducing overdose and the comparative risks of discontinuing treatment in the real world, remain uncertain. Our aim was to examine the effectiveness of medications for opioid use disorder in preventing opioid-related overdose.DesignRetrospective cohort study SETTING: United States.Patients46,846 commercially insured individuals diagnosed with opioid use disorder and initiating medication treatment between 2010 and 2016.MeasurementsOpioid-related overdose identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revisions.FindingsIn our sample, 1386 individuals were prescribed extended-release injectable naltrexone (median filled prescriptions = 9 months), 7782 were prescribed oral naltrexone (5 months), and 40,441 were prescribed buprenorphine (19 months) at least once during follow-up. Individuals receiving buprenorphine therapy were at significantly reduced risk of opioid-related overdose compared to no treatment (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.40, 95% CI 0.35-0.46), while a significant association was not observed in extended-release injectable (HR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.42-1.31) or oral (HR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.71-1.22) naltrexone. We found no association with opioid overdose within four weeks of discontinuation of any medication.ConclusionAmong commercially-insured patients who initiate medications for opioid use disorder, buprenorphine, but not naltrexone, was associated with lower risk of overdose during active treatment compared to post-discontinuation. More research is needed to understand the benefits and risks unique to each treatment option to better tailor therapies to patients with opioid use disorder.
| S-EPMC6613830 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe opioid epidemic is a rapidly growing public health concern in the USA, as the number of overdose deaths continues to increase each year. One strategy for combating the rising number of overdoses is through opioid overdose prevention programs (OOPPs).ObjectiveTo evaluate the effectiveness of an innovative OOPP, with changes in knowledge and attitudes serving as the primary outcome measures.MethodsThe OOPP was developed by a group of medical students under guidance from faculty advisors. Training sessions focused on understanding stigmatizing factors of opioid use disorder (OUD), as well as protocols for opioid overdose reversal through naloxone administration. Pre- and post-surveys were partially adapted from the opioid overdose attitudes and knowledge scales and administered to all participants. Paired t-tests were conducted to assess differences between pre- and post-surveys.ResultsA total of 440 individuals participated in the training; 381 completed all or the majority of the survey. Participants came from a diverse set of backgrounds, ages, and experiences. All three knowledge questions showed significant improvements. For attitude questions, significant improvements were found in all three questions evaluating confidence, two of three questions assessing attitudes towards overdose reversal, and four of five questions evaluating stigma and attitudes towards individuals with OUD.ConclusionsOur innovative OOPP was effective not only in increasing knowledge but also in improving attitudes towards overdose reversal and reducing stigma towards individuals with OUD. Given the strong improvements in attitudes towards those with OUD, efforts should be made to incorporate the unique focus on biopsychosocial and sociohistorical components into future OOPPs.
| S-EPMC8761384 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Opioid overdose deaths in the U.S. rose dramatically after 1999, but also exhibited substantial geographic variation. This has largely been explained by differential availability of prescription and non-prescription opioids, including heroin and fentanyl. Recent studies explore the underlying role of socioeconomic factors, but overlook the influence of job loss due to international trade, an economic phenomenon that disproportionately harms the same regions and demographic groups at the heart of the opioid epidemic. We used OLS regression and county-year level data from the Centers for Disease Controls and the Department of Labor to test the association between trade-related job loss and opioid-related overdose death between 1999 and 2015. We find that the loss of 1000 trade-related jobs was associated with a 2.7 percent increase in opioid-related deaths. When fentanyl was present in the heroin supply, the same number of job losses was associated with a 11.3 percent increase in opioid-related deaths.
| S-EPMC6606896 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective(s)To understand how contraception method use differed between women prescribed and not prescribed medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) among commercially-insured and Medicaid-insured women.Study designIBM Watson Health MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters database and the Multi-State Medicaid database were used to calculate the (1) crude prevalence, and (2) adjusted odds ratios (adjusted for demographic characteristics) of using long-acting reversible or short-acting hormonal contraception methods or female sterilization compared with none of these methods (no method) in 2018 by MOUD status among women with OUD, aged 20 to 49 years, with continuous health insurance coverage through commercial insurance or Medicaid for ≥6 years. Claims data was used to define contraception use. Fisher exact test or χ2 test with a P-value ≤ 0.0001, based on the Holm-Bonferroni method, and 95% confidence intervals were used to determine statistically significant differences for prevalence estimates and adjusted odds ratios, respectively.ResultsOnly 41% of commercially-insured and Medicaid-insured women with OUD were prescribed MOUD. Medicaid-insured women with OUD prescribed MOUD had a significantly lower crude prevalence of using no method (71.1% vs 79.0%) and higher odds of using female sterilization (aOR, 1.33; 95% CI: 1.06-1.67 vs no method) than those not prescribed MOUD. Among commercially-insured women there were no differences in contraceptive use by MOUD status and 66% used no method.ConclusionsAmong women with ≥ 6 years of continuous insurance coverage, contraceptive use differed by MOUD status and insurance. Prescribing MOUD for women with OUD can be improved to ensure quality care.ImplicationsOnly two in five women with OUD had evidence of being prescribed MOUD, and majority did not use prescription contraception or female sterilization. Our findings support opportunities to improve prescribing for MOUD and integrate contraception and MOUD services to improve clinical care among women with OUD.
| S-EPMC9722562 | biostudies-literature