Dataset Information

A machine-learning model to predict postoperative delirium following knee arthroplasty using electronic health records.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Postoperative delirium is a challenging complication due to its adverse outcome such as long hospital stay. The aims of this study were: 1) to identify preoperative risk factors of postoperative delirium following knee arthroplasty, and 2) to develop a machine-learning prediction model.

Method

A total of 3,980 patients from two hospitals were included in this study. The model was developed and trained with 1,931 patients from one hospital and externally validated with 2,049 patients from another hospital. Twenty preoperative variables were collected using electronic hospital records. Feature selection was conducted using the sequential feature selection (SFS). Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm (XGBoost) model as a machine-learning classifier was applied to predict delirium. A tenfold-stratified area under the curve (AUC) served as the metric for variable selection and internal validation.

Results

The incidence rate of delirium was 4.9% (n = 196). The following seven key predictors of postoperative delirium were selected: age, serum albumin, number of hypnotics and sedatives drugs taken preoperatively, total number of drugs (any kinds of oral medication) taken preoperatively, neurologic disorders, depression, and fall-down risk (all p < 0.05). The predictive performance of our model was good for the developmental cohort (AUC: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.77-0.84). It was also good for the external validation cohort (AUC: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.80-0.83). Our model can be accessed at https://safetka.connecteve.com .

Conclusions

A web-based predictive model for delirium after knee arthroplasty was developed using a machine-learning algorithm featuring seven preoperative variables. This model can be used only with information that can be obtained from pre-operative electronic hospital records. Thus, this model could be used to predict delirium before surgery and may assist physician's effort on delirium prevention.

SUBMITTER: Jung JW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9235137 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A machine-learning model to predict postoperative delirium following knee arthroplasty using electronic health records.

Jung Jong Wook JW Hwang Sunghyun S Ko Sunho S Jo Changwung C Park Hye Youn HY Han Hyuk-Soo HS Lee Myung Chul MC Park Jee Eun JE Ro Du Hyun DH

BMC psychiatry 20220627 1

<h4>Background</h4>Postoperative delirium is a challenging complication due to its adverse outcome such as long hospital stay. The aims of this study were: 1) to identify preoperative risk factors of postoperative delirium following knee arthroplasty, and 2) to develop a machine-learning prediction model.<h4>Method</h4>A total of 3,980 patients from two hospitals were included in this study. The model was developed and trained with 1,931 patients from one hospital and externally validated with 2 ...[more]

PMID: 35761274

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundAccurate, pragmatic risk stratification for postoperative delirium (POD) is necessary to target preventative resources toward high-risk patients. Machine learning (ML) offers a novel approach to leveraging electronic health record (EHR) data for POD prediction. We sought to develop and internally validate a ML-derived POD risk prediction model using preoperative risk features, and to compare its performance to models developed with traditional logistic regression.MethodsThis was a retrospective analysis of preoperative EHR data from 24,885 adults undergoing a procedure requiring anesthesia care, recovering in the main post-anesthesia care unit, and staying in the hospital at least overnight between December 2016 and December 2019 at either of two hospitals in a tertiary care health system. One hundred fifteen preoperative risk features including demographics, comorbidities, nursing assessments, surgery type, and other preoperative EHR data were used to predict postoperative delirium (POD), defined as any instance of Nursing Delirium Screening Scale ≥2 or positive Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit within the first 7 postoperative days. Two ML models (Neural Network and XGBoost), two traditional logistic regression models ("clinician-guided" and "ML hybrid"), and a previously described delirium risk stratification tool (AWOL-S) were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and positive predictive value. Model calibration was assessed with a calibration curve. Patients with no POD assessments charted or at least 20% of input variables missing were excluded.ResultsPOD incidence was 5.3%. The AUC-ROC for Neural Net was 0.841 [95% CI 0. 816-0.863] and for XGBoost was 0.851 [95% CI 0.827-0.874], which was significantly better than the clinician-guided (AUC-ROC 0.763 [0.734-0.793], p < 0.001) and ML hybrid (AUC-ROC 0.824 [0.800-0.849], p < 0.001) regression models and AWOL-S (AUC-ROC 0.762 [95% CI 0.713-0.812], p < 0.001). Neural Net, XGBoost, and ML hybrid models demonstrated excellent calibration, while calibration of the clinician-guided and AWOL-S models was moderate; they tended to overestimate delirium risk in those already at highest risk.ConclusionUsing pragmatically collected EHR data, two ML models predicted POD in a broad perioperative population with high discrimination. Optimal application of the models would provide automated, real-time delirium risk stratification to improve perioperative management of surgical patients at risk for POD.

Dataset Information

A machine-learning model to predict postoperative delirium following knee arthroplasty using electronic health records.

Background

Method

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A machine-learning model to predict postoperative delirium following knee arthroplasty using electronic health records.

Similar Datasets

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