Development and Validation of 3-Year Atrial Fibrillation Prediction Models Using Electronic Health Record With or Without Standardized Electrocardiogram Diagnosis and a Performance Comparison Among Models.
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PROVIDER: S-EPMC9238645 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background Electronic medical records (EMRs) allow identification of disease-specific patient populations, but varying electronic cohort definitions could result in different populations. We compared the characteristics of an electronic medical record-derived atrial fibrillation (AF) patient population using 5 different electronic cohort definitions. Methods and Results Adult patients with at least 1 AF billing code from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2017, were included. Based on different electronic cohort definitions, we trained 5 different logistic regression models using a labeled training data set (n=786). Each model yielded a predicted probability; patients were classified as having AF if the probability was higher than a specified cut point. Test characteristics were calculated for each model. These models were then applied to the full cohort and resulting characteristics were compared. In the training set, the comprehensive model (including demographics, billing codes, and natural language processing results) performed best, with an area under the curve of 0.89, sensitivity of 0.90, and specificity of 0.87. Among a candidate population (n=22 000), the proportion of patients identified as having AF varied from 61% in the model using diagnosis or procedure International Classification of Diseases (ICD) billing codes to 83% in the model using natural language processing of clinical notes. Among identified AF patients, the proportion of patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 varied from 69% to 85%; oral anticoagulant treatment rates varied from 50% to 66% depending on the model. Conclusions Different electronic cohort definitions result in substantially different AF study samples. This difference threatens the quality and reproducibility of electronic medical record-based research and quality initiatives.
| S-EPMC7335556 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsAtrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia worldwide. The AF is associated with severe mortality, morbidity, and healthcare costs, and guidelines recommend screening people at risk. However, screening methods and organization still need to be clarified. The current study aimed to assess the feasibility of a fully digital self-screening procedure and to assess the prevalence of undetected AF using a continuous patch electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring system.Methods and resultsIndividuals ≥65 years old with at least one additional risk factor for stroke from the general population of Norway were invited to a fully digital continuous self-screening for AF using a patch ECG device (ECG247 Smart Heart Sensor). Participants self-reported clinical characteristics and usability online, and all participants received digital feedback of their results. A total of 2118 individuals with a mean CHA2DS2-VASc risk score of 2.6 (0.9) were enrolled in the study [74% women; mean age 70.1 years (4.2)]. Of these, 1849 (87.3%) participants completed the ECG self-screening test, while 215 (10.2%) did not try to start the test and 54 (2.5%) failed to start the test. The system usability score was 84.5. The mean ECG monitoring time was 153 h (87). Atrial fibrillation was detected in 41 (2.2%) individuals.ConclusionThis fully digitalized self-screening procedure for AF demonstrated excellent feasibility. The number needed to screen was 45 to detect one unrecognized case of AF in subjects at risk for stroke. Randomized studies with long-term follow-up are needed to assess whether self-screening for AF can reduce the incidence of AF-related complications.Clinical trialsNCT04700865.
| S-EPMC10227758 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AFib) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia associated with stroke, blood clots, heart failure, coronary artery disease, and/or death. Multiple methods have been proposed for AFib detection, with varying performances, but no single approach appears to be optimal. We hypothesized that each state-of-the-art algorithm is appropriate for different subsets of patients and provides some independent information. Therefore, a set of suitably chosen algorithms, combined in a weighted voting framework, will provide a superior performance to any single algorithm.MethodsWe investigate and modify 38 state-of-the-art AFib classification algorithms for a single-lead ambulatory electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring device. All algorithms are ranked using a random forest classifier and an expert-labeled training dataset of 2,532 recordings. The seven top-ranked algorithms are combined by using an optimized weighting approach.ResultsThe proposed fusion algorithm, when validated on a separate test dataset consisting of 4,644 recordings, resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.99. The sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive-value (PPV), negative-predictive-value (NPV), and F1-score of the proposed algorithm were 0.93, 0.97, 0.87, 0.99, and 0.90, respectively, which were all superior to any single algorithm or any previously published.ConclusionThis study demonstrates how a set of well-chosen independent algorithms and a voting mechanism to fuse the outputs of the algorithms, outperforms any single state-of-the-art algorithm for AFib detection. The proposed framework is a case study for the general notion of crowdsourcing between open-source algorithms in healthcare applications. The extension of this framework to similar applications may significantly save time, effort, and resources, by combining readily existing algorithms. It is also a step toward the democratization of artificial intelligence and its application in healthcare.
| S-EPMC8594842 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) burden on patients and healthcare systems warrants innovative strategies for screening asymptomatic individuals.ObjectiveWe sought to externally validate a predictive model originally developed in a German population to detect unidentified incident AF utilising real-world primary healthcare databases from countries in Europe and Australia.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study used anonymized, longitudinal patient data from 5 country-level primary care databases, including Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK. The study eligibility included adult patients (≥45 years) with either an AF diagnosis (cases) or no diagnosis (controls) who had continuous enrolment in the respective database prior to the study period. Logistic regression was fitted to a binary response (yes/no) for AF diagnosis using pre-determined risk factors.ResultsAF patients were from Germany (n = 63,562), the UK (n = 42,652), France (n = 7,213), Australia (n = 2,753), and Belgium (n = 1,371). Cases were more likely to have hypertension or other cardiac conditions than controls in all validation datasets compared to the model development data. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in the validation datasets ranged from 0.79 (Belgium) to 0.84 (Germany), comparable to the German study model, which had an area under the curve of 0.83. Most validation sets reported similar specificity at approximately 80% sensitivity, ranging from 67% (France) to 71% (United Kingdom). The positive predictive value (PPV) ranged from 2% (Belgium) to 16% (Germany), and the number needed to be screened was 50 in Belgium and 6 in Germany. The prevalence of AF varied widely between these datasets, which may be related to different coding practices. Low prevalence affected PPV, but not sensitivity, specificity, and ROC curves.ConclusionsAF risk prediction algorithms offer targeted ways to identify patients using electronic health records, which could improve screening number and the cost-effectiveness of AF screening if implemented in clinical practice.
| S-EPMC9269467 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionAtrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a fivefold increased risk of stroke. Oral anticoagulation reduces the risk of stroke, but AF is elusive. A machine learning algorithm (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF)) developed to predict incident AF within 6 months using data in primary care electronic health records (EHRs) could be used to guide AF screening. The objectives of the FIND-AF pilot study are to determine yields of AF during ECG monitoring across AF risk estimates and establish rates of recruitment and protocol adherence in a remote AF screening pathway.Methods and analysisThe FIND-AF Pilot is an interventional, non-randomised, single-arm, open-label study that will recruit 1955 participants aged 30 years or older, without a history of AF and eligible for oral anticoagulation, identified as higher risk and lower risk by the FIND-AF risk score from their primary care EHRs, to a period of remote ECG monitoring with a Zenicor-ECG device. The primary outcome is AF diagnosis during ECG monitoring, and secondary outcomes include recruitment rates, withdrawal rates, adherence to ECG monitoring and prescription of oral anticoagulation to participants diagnosed with AF during ECG monitoring.Ethics and disseminationThe study has ethical approval (the North West-Greater Manchester South Research Ethics Committee reference 23/NW/0180). Findings will be announced at relevant conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals in line with the Funder's open access policy.Trial registration numberNCT05898165.
| S-EPMC10546147 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained heart arrhythmia in adults. Holter monitoring, a long-term 2-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), is a key tool available to cardiologists for AF diagnosis. Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models have shown great capacity to automatically detect AF in ECG and their use as medical decision support tool is growing. Training these models rely on a few open and annotated databases. We present a new Holter monitoring database from patients with paroxysmal AF with 167 records from 152 patients, acquired from an outpatient cardiology clinic from 2006 to 2017 in Belgium. AF episodes were manually annotated and reviewed by an expert cardiologist and a specialist cardiac nurse. Records last from 19 hours up to 95 hours, divided into 24-hour files. In total, it represents 24 million seconds of annotated Holter monitoring, sampled at 200 Hz. This dataset aims at expanding the available options for researchers and offers a valuable resource for advancing ML and DL use in the field of cardiac arrhythmia diagnosis.
| S-EPMC10584890 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The mouse is a useful preclinical species for evaluating disease etiology due to the availability of a wide variety of genetically modified strains and the ability to perform disease-modifying manipulations. In order to establish an atrial filtration (AF) model in our laboratory, we profiled several commonly used murine AF models. We initially evaluated a pharmacological model of acute carbachol (CCh) treatment plus atrial burst pacing in C57BL/6 mice. In an effort to observe micro-reentrant circuits indicative of authentic AF, we employed optical mapping imaging in isolated mouse hearts. While CCh reduced atrial refractoriness and increased atrial tachyarrhythmia vulnerability, the left atrial (LA) excitation patterns were rather regular without reentrant circuits or wavelets. Therefore, the atrial tachyarrhythmia resembled high frequency atrial flutter, not typical AF per se. We next examined both a chronic angiotensin II (Ang II) infusion model and the surgical model of transverse aortic constriction (TAC), which have both been reported to induce atrial and ventricular structural changes that serve as a substrates for micro-reentrant AF. Although we observed some extent of atrial remodeling such as fibrosis or enlarged LA diameter, burst pacing-induced atrial tachyarrhythmia vulnerability did not differ from control mice in either model. This again suggested that an AF-like pathophysiology is difficult to demonstrate in the mouse. To continue searching for a valid murine AF model, we studied mice with a cardiac-specific deficiency (KO) in liver kinase B1 (Cardiac-LKB1), which has been reported to exhibit spontaneous AF. Indeed, the electrocardiograms (ECG) of conscious Cardiac-LKB1 KO mice exhibited no P waves and had irregular RR intervals, which are characteristics of AF. Histological evaluation of Cardiac-LKB1 KO mice revealed dilated and fibrotic atria, again consistent with AF. However, atrial electrograms and optical mapping revealed that electrical activity was limited to the sino-atrial node area with no electrical conduction into the atrial myocardium beyond. Thus, Cardiac-LKB1 KO mice have severe atrial myopathy or atrial standstill, but not AF. In summary, the atrial tachyarrhythmias we observed in the four murine models were distinct from typical human AF, which often exhibits micro- or macro-reentrant atrial circuits. Our results suggest that the four murine AF models we examined may not reflect human AF well, and raise a cautionary note for use of those murine models to study AF.
| S-EPMC8741011 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To develop electrocardiogram (ECG) tools to quantify the number of sources for atrial fibrillation (AF), i.e. spatially stable rotors and focal impulses, and whether they lie in right or left atrium. Intracardiac mapping has recently shown that paroxysmal and persistent AF is sustained by rotors or focal sources that are stable in location and thus targets for limited ablation [focal impulse and rotor modulation (FIRM)] to eliminate AF. Importantly, the numbers and locations of concurrent sources determine both the complexity of AF and the approach for ablation.In 36 AF patients (n = 29 persistent, 63 ± 9 years) in the CONventional ablation with or without Focal Impulse and Rotor Modulation (CONFIRM) trial, we developed phase lock (PL) to quantify spatial repeatability of ECG 'F-waves' between leads over time. Phase lock spectrally quantifies the angle ? between F-wave voltages in planes formed by ECG leads I, aVF, and V1 at successive points in time. We compared PL with ECG spectral dominant frequency (DF) and organizational index (OI) to characterize stable rotors and focal sources validated by intracardiac FIRM mapping. Focal impulse and rotor modulation ablation alone at ?3 sources acutely terminated and rendered AF non-inducible or substantially slowed AF in 31 of 36 patients. Receiver operating characteristics of PL for this endpoint had area under the curve (AUC) = 0.72, and the optimum cut-point (PL = 0.09) had 74% sensitivity, 92% positive predictive value (PPV). Receiver operating characteristics areas for OI and DF were 0.50 and 0.58, respectively. Left (n = 28) or right (n = 3) atrial sources were localized by PL with AUC = 0.85, sensitivity 100%, PPV 30%, and negative predictive value 100%. Spectral DF provided AUC = 0.79. Notably, PL did not comigrate with diagnosis of paroxysmal or persistent AF (P = NS), unlike ECG DF.The novel metric of ECG PL identifies patients with fewer (?3) or greater numbers of stable rotors/focal sources for AF, validated by intracardiac FIRM mapping, and localized them to right or left atria. These data open the possibility of using 12-lead ECG analyses to classify AF mechanistically and plan procedures for right- or left-sided FIRM ablation.
| S-EPMC3753059 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe electronic medical record contains a wealth of information buried in free text. We created a natural language processing algorithm to identify patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) using text alone.Methods and resultsWe created 3 data sets from patients with at least one AF billing code from 2010 to 2017: a training set (n=886), an internal validation set from site no. 1 (n=285), and an external validation set from site no. 2 (n=276). A team of clinicians reviewed and adjudicated patients as AF present or absent, which served as the reference standard. We trained 54 algorithms to classify each patient, varying the model, number of features, number of stop words, and the method used to create the feature set. The algorithm with the highest F-score (the harmonic mean of sensitivity and positive predictive value) in the training set was applied to the validation sets. F-scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were compared between site no. 1 and site no. 2 using bootstrapping. Adjudicated AF prevalence was 75.1% at site no. 1 and 86.2% at site no. 2. Among 54 algorithms, the best performing model was logistic regression, using 1000 features, 100 stop words, and term frequency-inverse document frequency method to create the feature set, with sensitivity 92.8%, specificity 93.9%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.93 in the training set. The performance at site no. 1 was sensitivity 92.5%, specificity 88.7%, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91. The performance at site no. 2 was sensitivity 89.5%, specificity 71.1%, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80. The F-score was lower at site no. 2 compared with site no. 1 (92.5% [SD, 1.1%] versus 94.2% [SD, 1.1%]; P<0.001).ConclusionsWe developed a natural language processing algorithm to identify patients with AF using text alone, with >90% F-score at 2 separate sites. This approach allows better use of the clinical narrative and creates an opportunity for precise, high-throughput cohort identification.
| S-EPMC7646941 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The aldosterone inhibitor eplerenone (EPL) has been shown to reduce the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with systolic heart failure, but the mechanism is unknown. OBJECTIVES:This study hypothesized that by reducing atrial dilation and fibrosis in the absence of heart failure, EPL also reduces AF burden and prevents AF perpetuation. METHODS:The authors conducted a randomized controlled study in 34 sheep that were atrially tachypaced (13 ± 1 week). They compared daily oral EPL (n = 19) versus sugar pill (SP) treatment (n = 15) from the start of tachypacing. The endpoint was a continuous 7-day stretch of persistent AF (n = 29) or completion of 23 weeks tachypacing (n = 5). RESULTS:EPL significantly reduced the rate of left atrial dilation increase during AF progression. Atria from EPL-treated sheep had less smooth muscle actin protein, collagen-III expression, interstitial atrial fibrosis, and cell hypertrophy than SP-treated sheep atria did. However, EPL did not modify the AF-induced increase in the rate of dominant frequency and ion channel densities seen under SP treatment, but rather prolonged the time to persistent AF in 26% of animals. It also reduced the degree of fibrillatory conduction, AF inducibility, and AF burden. CONCLUSIONS:In the sheep model, EPL mitigates fibrosis and atrial dilation, modifies AF inducibility and AF complexity, and prolongs the transition to persistent AF in 26% of animals, but it does not prevent AF-induced electrical remodeling or AF persistence. The results highlight structural remodeling as a central upstream target to reduce AF burden, and the need to prevent electrical remodeling to avert AF perpetuation.
| S-EPMC5726581 | biostudies-literature