Global, regional, and national prevalence of asthma in 2019: a systematic analysis and modelling study.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Asthma has a significant impact on people of all ages, particularly children. A lack of universally accepted case definition and confirmatory tests and a poor understanding of major risks interfere with a global response. We aimed to provide global estimates of asthma prevalence and cases in 2019 across four main epidemiological case definitions - current wheezing, ever wheezing, current asthma, and ever asthma. We further investigated major associated factors to determine regional and national distributions of prevalence and cases for current wheezing and ever asthma.Methods
We identified relevant population-based studies published between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2019. Using a multilevel multivariable mixed-effects meta-regression model, we assessed the age- and sex-adjusted associations of asthma with study-level variables, including year, setting, region and socio-demographic index (SDI). Using a random-effects meta-analysis, we then identified risk factors for current wheezing and asthma. From a "risk factor-based model", which included current smoking, and biomass exposure for current wheezing, and rural setting, current smoking, biomass exposure, and SDI for ever asthma, we estimated case numbers and prevalence across regions and 201 countries and territories in 2019.Results
220 population-based studies conducted in 88 countries were retained. In 2019, the global prevalence estimates of asthma in people aged 5-69 years by various definitions, namely current wheezing, ever wheezing, current asthma, and ever asthma were 11.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.1-14.3), 17.9% (95% CI = 14.2-22.3), 5.4% (95% CI = 3.2-9.0) and 9.8% (95% CI = 7.8-12.2), respectively. These translated to 754.6 million (95% CI = 599. 7-943.4), 1181.3 million (95% CI = 938.0-1,471.0), 357.4 million (95% CI = 213.0-590.8), 645.2 million (95% CI = 513.1-806.2) cases, respectively. The overall prevalence of current wheezing among people aged 5-69 years was the highest in the African Region at 13.2% (95% CI = 10.5-16.5), and the lowest in the Americas Region at 10.0% (95% CI = 8.0-12.5). For ever asthma, the estimated prevalence in those aged 5-69 years was also the highest in the African Region at 11.3% (95% CI = 9.0-14.1), but the lowest in South-East Asia Region (8.8, 95% CI = 7.0-11.0).Conclusions
Although varying approaches to case identification in different settings make epidemiological estimates of asthma very difficult, this analysis reaffirms asthma as a common global respiratory condition before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, with higher prevalence than previously reported in many world settings.
SUBMITTER: Song P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9239324 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThe burden of asthma in terms of premature death or reduced quality of life remains a huge issue. It is of great importance to evaluate asthma burden geographically and time trends from 1990 to 2019 and to assess the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects at global level.MethodsAsthma prevalence, deaths, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as risk-attributable burden were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database and were compared by age and sex. The Smoothing Splines models were used to estimate the relationship between asthma DALYs and the sociodemographic index (SDI). The Age-Period-Cohort model was used to determine effects of ages, periods, and birth cohorts on disease rates.ResultsBetween 1990 and 2019, the declines were 24.05% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] - 27.24 to - 20.82) in age-standardized asthma prevalence, 51.3% (- 59.08 to - 43.71) in mortality, and 42.55% (- 48.48 to - 36.61) in DALYs rate. However, the burden of asthma continued to rise, with an estimated 262.41 million prevalent cases globally (95% UI 224.05 to 309.45). Asthma caused greater DALYs in females than in males among people aged 20 years and older. The lowest age-standardized DALYs rate was observed at a SDI of approximately 0.70. The Longitudinal age curves showed an approximate W-shaped pattern for asthma prevalence and a likely J-shaped pattern for asthma mortality. The period effect on prevalence and mortality of asthma decreased from 1990 to 2019. Compared with the 1955-1959 birth cohort, the prevalence relative risk (RR) of asthma was highest in the 1905-1909 birth cohort, whereas the mortality RR continued to decline. At the global level, the percentages of high body-mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking contributing to DALYs due to asthma were 16.94%, 8.82%, and 9.87%, respectively.ConclusionsAlthough the age-standardized rates of asthma burden declined in the past 30 years, the overall burden of asthma remains severe. High body mass index becomes the most important risk factor for DALYs due to asthma at the global level.
| S-EPMC10288698 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCombating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets.MethodsThe primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.FindingsIn 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [-5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [-5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.InterpretationThe prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC9349325 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo comprehensively analyze the global level and trends of prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for low back pain (LBP) from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI).MethodsPublicly available modelled data and methods were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study 2019, and used to evaluate the global burden of LBP through a systematic analysis.ResultsGlobally, the age-standardized prevalence, incidence and YLDs rate of LBP were slightly decreased from 1990 to 2019, but the number of the prevalent cases, incident cases and YLDs had substantially increased, and LBP remains the leading cause of YLDs in 2019 worldwide. The number of prevalent cases was increased with age and peaked at the age of 45-54 years for both sexes, and the global prevalence rate was higher in females than in males and increased with age, peaking at the 80-84 age group in both sexes in 2019. Overall, a positive association between the age-standardized YLD rate and SDI was observed over the past thirty years. At the national revel, the United States, Denmark and Switzerland had the three highest levels of age-standardized prevalence, while Zambia, Zimbabwe and Canada showed the highest increase in the age-standardized prevalence during 1990-2019.ConclusionsLBP is a major public health issue globally, and its burden remains high. Increasing population awareness about its risk factors and preventive measures for LBP are needed to reduce the future burden of this condition.The translational potential of this articleDue to the high prevalence and heavy burden of LBP globally, it is important to update its epidemiological data. This systematic analysis provides researchers and healthcare policy makers with up-to-date, comprehensive and comparable information on global LBP burden, which is of clinical translational significance.
| S-EPMC8639804 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSpinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsUsing GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury.FindingsGlobally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2) cases with an estimated 6·2 million (4·5 to 8·2) YLDs. SCI rates increased substantially from 1990 to 2019 for global prevalence (81·5%, 74·2 to 87·1), incidence (52·7%, 30·3 to 69·8), and YLDs (65·4%, 56·3 to 76·0). However, global age-standardised rates per 100 000 population showed small changes in prevalence (5·8%, 2·6 to 9·5), incidence (-6·1%, -17·2 to 1·5), and YLDs (-1·5%, -5·5 to 3·2). Data for 2019 shows that the incidence of SCI increases sharply until age 15-19 years, where it remains reasonably constant until 85 years of age and older. By contrast, prevalence and YLDs showed similar patterns to each other, with one peak at around age 45-54 years. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of SCI have consistently been higher in men than in women globally, with a slight and steady increase for both men and women from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, SCI at neck level was more common than SCI below neck level in terms of incidence (492 thousand [354 to 675] vs 417 thousand [290 to 585]), prevalence (10·8 million [9·5 to 13·9] vs 9·7 million [9·2 to 10·4]), and YLDs (4·2 million [3·0 to 5·8] vs 1·9 million [1·3 to 2·5]). Falls (477 thousand [327 to 683] cases) and road injuries (230 thousand [122 to 389] cases) were the two leading causes of SCI globally in 2019.InterpretationAlthough age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI changed only slightly, absolute counts increased substantially from 1990 to 2019. Geographical heterogeneity in demographic, spatial, and temporal patterns of SCI, at both the national and regional levels, should be considered by policy makers aiming to reduce the burden of SCI.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC10584692 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveWe aim to explore the prevalence and temporal trends of the burden of kidney dysfunction (KD) in global, regional and national level, since a lack of related studies.DesignCross-sectional study.MaterialsThe data of this research was obtained from Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The estimation of the prevalence, which was measured by the summary exposure value (SEV), and attributable burden of KD was performed by DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. The Spearman rank order correlation method was adopted to perform correlation analysis. The temporal trends were represented by the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).ResultsIn 2019, there were total 3.16 million deaths and 76.5 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to KD, increased by 101.1% and 81.7% compared with that in 1990, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the prevalence of KD has increased in worldwide, but decreased in High-income Asia Pacific. Nearly 48.5% of countries globally, such as South Africa, Egypt and Mexico had increased mortality rates of KD from 1990 to 2019 while 44.6% for disability rate. Countries with lower socio-demographic index (SDI) are facing a higher prevalence as well as mortality and disability rate compared with those with higher SDI. Compared with females, the prevalence of KD was lower in males, however the attributable mortality and disability rate were higher in all years from 1990 to 2019.ConclusionWith the progress of senescent, we will face more severe challenges of reducing the prevalence and attributable burden of KD, especially in regions with lower SDI. Effective measures are urgently required to alleviate the prevalence and burden of KD.
| S-EPMC10288715 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.MethodsWe modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.FindingsIn 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).InterpretationSubstantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC10356620 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRegularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.MethodsWe applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.FindingsIn 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).InterpretationThe annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC8443449 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundStatistical models are increasingly being used to estimate and project the prevalence and burden of asthma. Given substantial variations in these estimates, there is a need to critically assess the properties of these models and assess their transparency and reproducibility. We aimed to critically appraise the strengths, limitations and reproducibility of existing models for estimating and projecting the global, regional and national prevalence and burden of asthma.MethodsWe undertook a systematic review, which involved searching Medline, Embase, World Health Organization Library and Information Services (WHOLIS) and Web of Science from 1980 to 2017 for modelling studies. Two reviewers independently assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion and then assessed their strengths, limitations and reproducibility using pre-defined quality criteria. Data were descriptively and narratively synthesised.ResultsWe identified 108 eligible studies, which employed a total of 51 models: 42 models were used to derive national level estimates, two models for regional estimates, four models for global and regional estimates and three models for global, regional and national estimates. Ten models were used to estimate the prevalence of asthma, 27 models estimated the burden of asthma - including, health care service utilisation, disability-adjusted life years, mortality and direct and indirect costs of asthma - and 14 models estimated both the prevalence and burden of asthma. Logistic and linear regression models were most widely used for national estimates. Different versions of the DisMod-MR- Bayesian meta-regression models and Cause Of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) were predominantly used for global, regional and national estimates. Most models suffered from a number of methodological limitations - in particular, poor reporting, insufficient quality and lack of reproducibility.ConclusionsWhilst global, regional and national estimates of asthma prevalence and burden continue to inform health policy and investment decisions on asthma, most models used to derive these estimates lack the required reproducibility. There is a need for better-constructed models for estimating and projecting the prevalence and disease burden of asthma and a related need for better reporting of models, and making data and code available to facilitate replication.
| S-EPMC7774028 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundColorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades.MethodsEstimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer.FindingsGlobally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8-71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0-37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6-34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6-34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019.InterpretationThe increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC9192760 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDocumentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsWe report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).FindingsIn 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.InterpretationVariation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC8576274 | biostudies-literature