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Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model.

ABSTRACT: The vaccines are considered to be important for the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, considering the limited vaccine supply within an extended period of time in many countries where COVID-19 vaccine booster shot are taken and new vaccines are developed to suppress the mutation of virus, designing an effective vaccination strategy is extremely important to reduce the number of deaths and infections. Then, the simulations were implemented to study the relative reduction in morbidity and mortality of vaccine allocation strategies by using the proposed model and actual South Africa's epidemiological data. Our results indicated that in light of South Africa's demographics, vaccinating older age groups (>60 years) largely reduced the cumulative deaths and the "0-20 first" strategy was the most effective way to reduce confirmed cases. In addition, "21-30 first" and "31-40 first" strategies have also had a positive effect. Partial vaccination resulted in lower numbers of infections and deaths under different control measures compared with full vaccination in low-income countries. In addition, we analyzed the sensitivity of daily testing volume and infection rate, which are critical to optimize vaccine allocation. However, comprehensive reduction in infections was mainly affected by the vaccine proportion of the target age group. An increase in the proportion of vaccines given priority to "0-20" groups always had a favorable effect, and the prioritizing vaccine allocation among the "60+" age group with 60% of the total amount of vaccine consistently resulted in the greatest reduction in deaths. Meanwhile, we observed a significant distinction in the effect of COVID-19 vaccine allocation policies under varying priority strategies on relative reductions in the effective reproduction number. Our results could help evaluate to control measures performance and the improvement of vaccine allocation strategy for COVID-19 epidemic.

SUBMITTER: Zuo C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9240634 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The debate around vaccine prioritization for COVID-19 has revolved around balancing the benefits from: (1) the direct protection conferred by the vaccine amongst those at highest risk of severe disease outcomes, and (2) the indirect protection through vaccinating those that are at highest risk of being infected and of transmitting the virus. While adults aged 65+ are at highest risk for severe disease and death from COVID-19, essential service and other in-person workers with greater rates of contact may be at higher risk of acquiring and transmitting SARS-CoV-2. Unfortunately, there have been relatively little data available to understand heterogeneity in contact rates and risk across these demographic groups. Here, we retrospectively analyze and evaluate vaccination prioritization strategies by age and worker status. We use a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and uniquely detailed contact data collected as part of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey to evaluate five vaccination prioritization strategies: (1) prioritizing only adults over age 65, (2) prioritizing only high-contact workers, (3) splitting prioritization between adults 65+ and high-contact workers, (4) tiered prioritization of adults over age 65 followed by high-contact workers, and (5) tiered prioritization of high-contact workers followed by adults 65+. We find that for the primary two-dose vaccination schedule, assuming 70% uptake, a tiered roll-out that first prioritizes adults 65+ averts the most deaths (31% fewer deaths compared to a no-vaccination scenario) while a tiered roll-out that prioritizes high contact workers averts the most number of clinical infections (14% fewer clinical infections compared to a no-vaccination scenario). We also consider prioritization strategies for booster doses during a subsequent outbreak of a hypothetical new SARS-CoV-2 variant. We find that a tiered roll-out that prioritizes adults 65+ for booster doses consistently averts the most deaths, and it may also avert the most number of clinical cases depending on the epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 variant and the vaccine efficacy.

Project description:IntroductionDespite the unparalleled success of immunisation in the control of vaccine preventable diseases, immunisation coverage in South Africa remains suboptimal. While many evidence-based interventions have successfully improved vaccination coverage in other countries, they are not necessarily appropriate to the immunisation needs, barriers and facilitators of South Africa. The aim of this research is to investigate barriers and facilitators to optimal vaccination uptake, and develop contextualised strategies and implementation plans to increase childhood and adolescent vaccination coverage in South Africa.MethodsThe study will employ a mixed-methods research design. It will be conducted over three iterative phases and use the Adopt, Contextualise or Adapt (ACA) model as an overarching conceptual framework. Phase 1 will identify, and develop a sampling frame of, immunisation stakeholders involved in the design, planning and implementation of childhood and human papillomavirus immunisation programmes in South Africa. Phase 2 will identify the main barriers and facilitators to, and solutions for, increasing vaccination coverage. This phase will comprise exploratory qualitative research with stakeholders and a review of existing systematic reviews on interventions for improving vaccination coverage. Using the findings from Phase 2 and the ACA model, Phase 3 will develop a set of proposed interventions and implementation action plans for improving immunisation coverage in South Africa. These plans will be discussed, revised and finalised through a series of participatory stakeholder workshops and an online questionnaire, conducted as part of Phase 3.EthicsEthical approval was obtained from the South African Medical Research Council (EC018-11/2018). No risks to participants are expected. Various steps will be taken to ensure the anonymity and confidentiality of participants.DisseminationThe study findings will be shared at stakeholder workshops, the website of Cochrane South Africa and academic publications and conferences.

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Assessing Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in South Africa Based on Age-Specific Compartment Model.

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