A Nomogram to Predict Survival in Patients With Locoregional Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Receiving Comprehensive Treatment.
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ABSTRACT: Objective
This study aimed to establish a prognostic stratified model of chemotherapy-based comprehensive treatment for patients with locoregional recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (lrNPC), to help individualized treatment decision-making.Materials and methods
This study retrospectively reviewed patients with lrNPC who received chemotherapy-based comprehensive treatment from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2018. A total of 422 eligible patients were divided into test (n = 338) and validation (n = 84) cohorts. A LASSO cox regression model was used to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in the test cohort. A nomogram was then developed based on a combined consideration of clinically meaningful prognostic factors and statistically significant prognostic factors. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.Results
Five significant factors were identified: age, albumin (ALB), T stage after recurrent (rT), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and systematic immune-inflammation index (SII). The nomogram was established with these five factors. C-index was 0.636 in the test cohort and 0.610 in the validation cohort. The calibration curves for the OS rate at 3, and 5 years showed an excellent agreement in both cohorts. In addition, the corresponding risk classification system successfully classified patients into low- and high-risk groups and performed well in stratification (P < 0.001).Conclusions
The nomogram shows well prognostic performance for lrNPC patients receiving chemotherapy-based comprehensive treatment.
SUBMITTER: Wei YH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9243306 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundLactate dehydrogenase (LDH) is a known prognostic biomarker for the endemic variant of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Here, we investigate whether serial changes in LDH level between chemotherapy (CT) cycles are associated with tumour response to CT.MethodsPatients with biopsy-proven, recurrent or treatment-naïve metastatic NPC (mNPC) were recruited. All patients had received at least two cycles of platinum-based doublet or triplet CT, with serial assessment of LDH prior to every cycle of chemotherapy (CT1-6). Patients harbouring conditions that affect LDH levels (IU/L) were excluded. Tumour response was assessed after every two cycles of CT by RECIST v1.1.ResultsA total of 158 patients were analysed, including 77 with recurrent and 81 with treatment-naïve mNPC. High pre-CT LDH was associated with an inferior overall survival [hazard ratio 1.93 for ⩾240 versus <240 (1.34-2.77), p < 0.001], which is consistent with published literature. We found that both absolute LDH levels and LDH ratios (LDHCTn: LDHCTn-1) were associated with tumour response [partial response versus progressive disease: median value across CT1-6 = 168-190 versus 222-398 (absolute); 0.738-0.988 versus 1.039-1.406 (ratio)], albeit LDH ratio had a tighter variance between patients. Finally, we showed that an LDH ratio cut-off of 1.0 at CT1, CT3 and CT5 was predictive of progressive disease at CT2, CT4, CT6 [area under the curve of 0.73 (0.65-0.80)].ConclusionHerein, we characterised the longitudinal variation of LDH in response to CT in mNPC. Our findings suggest the potential utility of interval LDH ratio to predict subsequent tumour response to CT.
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Project description:ImportanceBecause of tumor heterogeneity, overall survival (OS) differs significantly among individuals with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), even among those with the same clinical stage. Relying solely on TNM staging to guide treatment remains imperfect.ObjectivesTo establish a comprehensive nomogram to estimate individualized OS and to explore stratified treatment regimens for risk subgroups in nonmetastatic NPC.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study included 8093 patients diagnosed with NPC at a single center in China from April 2009 to December 2015. The sample was split into a training cohort (5398 participants [66.7%]) and validation cohort (2695 [33.3%]). Data were analyzed in May 2020.ExposuresAge, T stage, N stage, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA level, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, and albumin (ALB) levels.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary end point was OS. The nomogram for estimating OS was generated based on multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. The performance of the nomogram was quantified using Harrell concordance index (C index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, and a calibration curve. OS rates were established using the Kaplan-Meier method, and intersubgroup differences were examined by the log-rank test.ResultsAmong the 8093 participants, 5688 (70.3%) were men, and the median age at diagnosis was 45 years (range, 7-85 years). Six variables (age, T stage, N stage, EBV DNA levels, LDH levels, and ALB levels) were identified through multivariate Cox regression and incorporated into a nomogram to estimate OS. The resulting nomogram showed excellent discriminative ability and significantly outperformed the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control TNM staging system for estimating OS (C index, 0.716 [95% CI, 0.698-0.734] vs 0.643 [95% CI, 0.624-0.661]; P < .001; AUC, 0.717 [95% CI, 0.698-0.737] vs 0.643 [95% CI, 0.623-0.662]; P < .001), and the calibration curves showed satisfactory agreement between the actual and nomogram-estimated OS rates. The validation cohort confirmed the results. Patients were stratified into 4 risk groups based on the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile score values estimated from the nomogram. The 4 nomogram-defined risk groups demonstrated significantly different intergroup OS (3-year OS rates: risk group 1, 1328 of 1345 [98.7%]; risk group 2, 1289 of 1341 [96.1%]; risk group 3, 1222 of 1321 [92.5%]; risk group 4, 1173 of 1391 [84.3%]; P < .001). These risk groups were associated with the efficacy of different treatment regimens. For example, for risk group 4, induction chemotherapy with concurrent chemoradiotherapy was associated with a significantly better OS than concurrent chemoradiotherapy (log-rank P = .008) and intensity-modulated radiotherapy alone (log-rank P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, the proposed nomogram model enabled individualized prognostication of OS and could help to guide risk-adapted treatment for patients with nonmetastatic NPC.
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