Associations between long-term drought and diarrhea among children under five in low- and middle-income countries.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wang P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9247069 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectivesTo explore the efficacy of machine learning (ML) techniques in predicting under-five mortality (U5M) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and to identify significant predictors of U5M.DesignThis is a cross-sectional, proof-of-concept study.Settings and participantsWe analysed data from the Demographic and Health Survey. The data were drawn from 34 LMICs, comprising a total of n=1 520 018 children drawn from 956 995 unique households.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcome measure was U5M; secondary outcome was comparing the efficacy of deep learning algorithms: deep neural network (DNN); convolution neural network (CNN); hybrid CNN-DNN with logistic regression (LR) for the prediction of child's survival.ResultsWe found that duration of breast feeding, number of antenatal visits, household wealth index, postnatal care and the level of maternal education are some of the most important predictors of U5M. We found that deep learning techniques are superior to LR for the classification of child survival: LR sensitivity=0.47, specificity=0.53; DNN sensitivity=0.69, specificity=0.83; CNN sensitivity=0.68, specificity=0.83; CNN-DNN sensitivity=0.71, specificity=0.83.ConclusionOur findings provide an understanding of determinants of U5M in LMICs. It also demonstrates that deep learning models are more efficacious than traditional analytical approach.
| S-EPMC7430449 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNon-biological childhood mortality sex ratios may reflect community sex preferences and gender discrimination in health care.ObjectiveWe assessed the association between contextual factors and gender bias in under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in low- and middle-income countries.MethodsFull birth histories available from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (2010-2018) in 80 countries were used to estimate U5MR male-to-female sex ratios. Expected sex ratios and their residuals (difference of observed and expected) were derived from a linear regression model, adjusted for overall mortality. Negative residuals indicate more likelihood of discrimination against girls, and we refer to this as a measure of potential gender bias. Associations between residuals and national development and gender inequality indices and with survey-derived child health care indicators were tested using Spearman's correlation.ResultsMortality residuals for under-five mortality were not associated with national development, education, religion, or gender inequality indices. Negative residuals were more common in countries where boys were more likely to be taken to health services than girls (rho -0.24, 95% confidence interval -0.45, -0.01).ConclusionsCountries where girls were more likely to die than boys, accounting for overall mortality levels, were also countries where boys were more likely to receive health care than girls. Further research is needed to understand which national characteristics explain the presence of gender bias, given that the analyses of development levels and gender equality did not discriminate between countries with or without excess mortality of girls. Reporting on child mortality separately by sex is required to enable such advances.
| S-EPMC8453971 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDiarrhea remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age, but in many low and middle-income countries where vital registration data are lacking, updated estimates with regard to the proportion of deaths attributable to diarrhea are needed.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature review to identify studies reporting diarrhea proportionate mortality for children 1-59 mo of age published between 1980 and 2009. Using the published proportionate mortality estimates and country level covariates we constructed a logistic regression model to estimate country and regional level proportionate mortality and estimated uncertainty bounds using Monte-Carlo simulations.FindingsWe identified more than 90 verbal autopsy studies from around the world to contribute data to a single-cause model. We estimated diarrhea proportionate mortality for 84 countries in 6 regions and found diarrhea to account for between 10.0% of deaths in the Americas to 31.3% of deaths in the South-east Asian region.DiscussionDiarrhea remains a leading cause of death for children 1-59 mo of age. Published literature can be used to create a single-cause mortality disease model to estimate mortality for countries lacking vital registration data.
| S-EPMC3250411 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceClimate change is associated with more frequent and intense floods. Current research on the association between flood exposure and diarrhea risk is limited mainly to short-term and event-specific analyses. Moreover, how prior drought or water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) practices influence this association remains largely unknown.ObjectiveTo examine the association between flood exposure and diarrhea risk among children younger than 5 years and to evaluate the compounding influence of prior drought and effect modification by WaSH.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study included multicluster surveys conducted by the Demographic and Health Surveys Program in 43 low- and middle-income countries during 2009 through 2019. This study included children younger than 5 years in all households from each survey cluster. Collected data were analyzed between September 1 and December 31, 2022.ExposuresHistorical flood events during 2009 through 2019 were obtained from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory.Main outcome and measuresThe main outcome was diarrhea prevalence among children younger than 5 years in the 2 weeks before the survey was conducted. Results were analyzed by binomial generalized linear mixed-effects logistic regression models with nested random intercepts for country and survey cluster.ResultsAmong 639 250 children making up the complete data series (excluding 274 847 children with missing values for diarrhea or baseline characteristics), 6365 (mean [SD] age, 28.9 [17.2] months; 3214 boys [50.5%]; 3151 girls [49.5%]) were exposed to floods during the 8 weeks after a flood started. The prevalence of diarrhea was 13.2% (n = 839) among exposed children and 12.7% (n = 80 337) among unexposed children. Exposure to floods was associated with increased diarrhea risk, with the highest odds ratio (OR) observed during the second to fourth weeks after floods started (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.05-1.73). When floods were stratified by severity and duration, significant associations were observed only for extreme floods (OR during the third to fifth weeks, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.37-3.11) or floods lasting more than 2 weeks (OR during the second to fourth weeks, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.13-1.92), with significantly stronger associations than for less extreme floods or shorter-duration floods, respectively. The OR during the first 4 weeks after the start of floods was significantly higher for floods preceded by a 6-month or longer drought (12-month drought OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.53-2.52) than for floods not preceded by a 6-month or longer drought (12-month drought OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.79-1.27).ConclusionsThese findings suggest that floods, especially severe floods, long-duration floods, and floods preceded by drought, are associated with an increased risk of diarrhea among children younger than 5 years living in low- and middle-income countries. With the projected increasing frequency and intensity of floods and drought under climate change, greater collective efforts are needed to protect children's health from these compounding events.
| S-EPMC10546297 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCurrent WHO guidelines on the management and treatment of diarrhea in children strongly recommend continued feeding alongside the administration of oral rehydration solution and zinc therapy, but there remains some debate regarding the optimal diet or dietary ingredients for feeding children with diarrhea.MethodsWe conducted a systematic search for all published randomized controlled trials evaluating food-based interventions among children under five years old with diarrhea in low- and middle-income countries. We classified 29 eligible studies into one or more comparisons: reduced versus regular lactose liquid feeds, lactose-free versus lactose-containing liquid feeds, lactose-free liquid feeds versus lactose-containing mixed diets, and commercial/specialized ingredients versus home-available ingredients. We used all available outcome data to conduct random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the average effect of each intervention on diarrhea duration, stool output, weight gain and treatment failure risk for studies on acute and persistent diarrhea separately.ResultsEvidence of low-to-moderate quality suggests that among children with acute diarrhea, diluting or fermenting lactose-containing liquid feeds does not affect any outcome when compared with an ordinary lactose-containing liquid feeds. In contrast, moderate quality evidence suggests that lactose-free liquid feeds reduce duration and the risk of treatment failure compared to lactose-containing liquid feeds in acute diarrhea. Only limited evidence of low quality was available to assess either of these two approaches in persistent diarrhea, or to assess lactose-free liquid feeds compared to lactose-containing mixed diets in either acute or persistent diarrhea. For commercially prepared or specialized ingredients compared to home-available ingredients, we found low-to-moderate quality evidence of no effect on any outcome in either acute or persistent diarrhea, though when we restricted these analyses to studies where both intervention and control diets were lactose-free, weight gain in children with acute diarrhea was shown to be greater among those fed with a home-available diet.ConclusionsAmong children in low- and middle-income countries, where the dual burden of diarrhea and malnutrition is greatest and where access to proprietary formulas and specialized ingredients is limited, the use of locally available age-appropriate foods should be promoted for the majority of acute diarrhea cases. Lactose intolerance is an important complication in some cases, but even among those children for whom lactose avoidance may be necessary, nutritionally complete diets comprised of locally available ingredients can be used at least as effectively as commercial preparations or specialized ingredients. These same conclusions may also apply to the dietary management of children with persistent diarrhea, but the evidence remains limited.
| S-EPMC3847348 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Diarrhea is a leading cause of antibiotic consumption among children in low- and middle-income countries. While vaccines may prevent diarrhea infections for which children often receive antibiotics, the contribution of individual enteropathogens to antibiotic use is minimally understood. We used data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to estimate pathogen-specific incidence of antibiotic-treated diarrhea among children under five years old residing in six countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia before rotavirus vaccine implementation. GEMS was an age-stratified, individually-matched case-control study. Stool specimens were obtained from children presenting to sentinel health clinics with newly-onset, acute diarrhea (including moderate-to-severe and less-severe diarrhea) as well as matched community controls without diarrhea. We used data from conventional and quantitative molecular diagnostic assays applied to stool specimens to estimate the proportion of antibiotic-treated diarrhea cases attributable to each pathogen. Antibiotics were administered or prescribed to 9,606 of 12,109 moderate-to-severe cases and 1,844 of 3,174 less-severe cases. Across all sites, incidence rates of clinically-attended, antibiotic-treated diarrhea were 12.2 (95% confidence interval: 9.0-17.8), 10.2 (7.4-13.9) and 1.9 (1.3-3.0) episodes per 100 child-years at risk at ages 6 weeks to 11 months, 12-23 months, and 24-59 months, respectively. Based on the recommendation for antibiotic treatment to be reserved for cases with dysentery, we estimated a ratio of 12.6 (8.6-20.8) inappropriately-treated diarrhea cases for each appropriately-treated case. Rotavirus, adenovirus serotypes 40/41, Shigella, sapovirus, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, and Cryptosporidium were the leading antibiotic-treated diarrhea etiologies. Rotavirus caused 29.2% (24.5-35.2%) of antibiotic-treated cases, including the largest share in both the first and second years of life. Shigella caused 14.9% (11.4-18.9%) of antibiotic-treated cases, and was the leading etiology at ages 24-59 months. Our findings should inform the prioritization of vaccines with the greatest potential to reduce antibiotic exposure among children.
| S-EPMC7444547 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDiarrhea is recognized as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age in low- and middle-income countries yet updated estimates of diarrhea incidence by age for these countries are greatly needed. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify cohort studies that sought to quantify diarrhea incidence among any age group of children 0-59 mo of age.MethodsWe used the Expectation-Maximization algorithm as a part of a two-stage regression model to handle diverse age data and overall incidence rate variation by study to generate country specific incidence rates for low- and middle-income countries for 1990 and 2010. We then calculated regional incidence rates and uncertainty ranges using the bootstrap method, and estimated the total number of episodes for children 0-59 mo of age in 1990 and 2010.ResultsWe estimate that incidence has declined from 3.4 episodes/child year in 1990 to 2.9 episodes/child year in 2010. As was the case previously, incidence rates are highest among infants 6-11 mo of age; 4.5 episodes/child year in 2010. Among these 139 countries there were nearly 1.9 billion episodes of childhood diarrhea in 1990 and nearly 1.7 billion episodes in 2010.ConclusionsAlthough our results indicate that diarrhea incidence rates may be declining slightly, the total burden on the health of each child due to multiple episodes per year is tremendous and additional funds are needed to improve both prevention and treatment practices in low- and middle-income countries.
| S-EPMC3323412 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPerformance in intelligence tests tends to be higher among individuals breastfed as infants, but little is known about the association between breastfeeding and achieved schooling. We assessed the association of infant feeding with school achievement in five cohorts from low- and middle-income countries. Unlike high-income country settings where most previous studies come from, breastfeeding is not positively associated with socioeconomic position in our cohorts, thus reducing the likelihood of a spurious positive association.Methodology and principal findingsParticipants included 10,082 young adults from five birth cohorts (Brazil, India, Guatemala, the Philippines, and South Africa). The exposures variables were whether the subject was ever breastfed, total duration of breastfeeding, and age at introduction of complementary foods. We adjusted the estimates for age at follow up, sex, maternal age, smoking during pregnancy, birthweight and socioeconomic position at birth. The key outcome was the highest grade achieved at school. In unadjusted analyses, the association between ever breastfeeding and schooling was positive in Brazil, inverse in the Philippines, and null in South Africa; in adjusted analyses, these associations were attenuated. In Brazil, schooling was highest among individuals breastfed for 3-12 months whereas in the Philippines duration of breastfeeding was inversely associated with schooling; and null associations were observed in South Africa and Guatemala. These associations were attenuated in adjusted models. Late introduction of solid foods was associated with lower schooling achievement in Brazil and South Africa.ConclusionMeasures of breastfeeding are not consistently related to schooling achievement in contemporary cohorts of young adults in lower and middle-income countries.
| S-EPMC3748078 | biostudies-literature
Project description:With increasing life-expectancy and changing demographics, non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) is currently the most common indication for long-term oral anticoagulation (OAC) in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Due to a decreasing trend in the prevalence of rheumatic heart disease (RHD), valve disease as a primary cause of AF now constitutes a small fraction of all people with AF. Moreover, emerging data also indicate that, patients with significant valve disease and AF may have a risk of stroke similar to, if not lower than, those with non-valvular AF. Previous trials of anticoagulation for AF excluded people from LMICs partly because valvular AF constituted a large proportion of those with AF, and it was thought to confer a prohibitively high risk of stroke. Trialists should therefore be less reluctant to include patients with AF from LMICs in general, and those with valve disease in particular, in future trials of anticoagulation. The quality of vitamin K antagonist based oral anticoagulation remains poor in LMICs to a large extent because of poor monitoring. The widespread use of the direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) presents a practical approach to improve anticoagulation quality. Randomised trials of DOACs in valvular AF are particularlycriticalto bridge the knowledge gap in this area. Discussions regarding oral anticoagulation (OAC) use in low and middle income countries (LMICs) have historicallybeendominated by severallong-held beliefs. The first is that the quality of vitamin K antagonist (VKA) based anticoagulation is poor in these countries. The veracity of this assumption is supported by a large number of studies documenting both lower prescription of OACs, and a lower proportion of international normalised ratio (INR) values in the therapeutic range.1The second is that a large proportion of patients receiving OAC in LMICs have atrial fibrillation (AF) related to valvular heart disease, and rheumatic mitral stenosis in particular. This assumption, perhaps valid several decades ago, is no longer supported by the data. Finally, patients with valvular heart disease and AF (specifically those with moderate or severe valve lesions), are thought to be at prohibitively high thromboembolic risk. 2 However, recent evidence suggests that this risk may have been overestimated.34Nevertheless, the aforementioned assumptions continue to contribute to the underrepresentation of patients from LMICs in clinical trials of oral anticoagulation. Knowledge of the characteristics of contemporary patients in LMICs who are eligible for long-term OAC, estimates of their stroke risk, and a better understanding of the drivers of poor anticoagulation quality, may help guide research and clinical practice. In this review, we seek to provide an evidence-based perspective on OAC use in patients with AF living in LMICs and China.
| S-EPMC8065364 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In recent decades low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been witnessing a significant shift toward raised blood pressure; yet in LMICs, only 1 in 3 are aware of their hypertension status, and ≈8% have their blood pressure controlled. This rising burden widens the inequality gap, contributes to massive economic hardships of patients and carers, and increases costs to the health system, facing challenges such as low physician-to-patient ratios and lack of access to medicines. Established risk factors include unhealthy diet (high salt and low fruit and vegetable intake), physical inactivity, tobacco and alcohol use, and obesity. Emerging risk factors include pollution (air, water, noise, and light), urbanization, and a loss of green space. Risk factors that require further in-depth research are low birth weight and social and commercial determinants of health. Global actions include the HEARTS technical package and the push for universal health care. Promising research efforts highlight that successful interventions are feasible in LMICs. These include creation of health-promoting environments by introducing salt-reduction policies and sugar and alcohol tax; implementing cost-effective screening and simplified treatment protocols to mitigate treatment inertia; pooled procurement of low-cost single-pill combination therapy to improve adherence; increasing access to telehealth and mHealth (mobile health); and training health care staff, including community health workers, to strengthen team-based care. As the blood pressure trajectory continues creeping upward in LMICs, contextual research on effective, safe, and cost-effective interventions is urgent. New emergent risk factors require novel solutions. Lowering blood pressure in LMICs requires urgent global political and scientific priority and action.
| S-EPMC8091106 | biostudies-literature