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Modeling the Prognostic Impact of Circulating Tumor Cells Enumeration in Metastatic Breast Cancer for Clinical Trial Design Simulation.

ABSTRACT: Despite the strong prognostic stratification of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) enumeration in metastatic breast cancer (MBC), current clinical trials usually do not include a baseline CTCs in their design. This study aimed to generate a classifier for CTCs prognostic simulation in existing datasets for hypothesis generation in patients with MBC. A K-nearest neighbor machine learning algorithm was trained on a pooled dataset comprising 2436 individual MBC patients from the European Pooled Analysis Consortium and the MD Anderson Cancer Center to identify patients likely to have CTCs ≥ 5/7 mL blood (StageIVaggressive vs StageIVindolent). The model had a 65.1% accuracy and its prognostic impact resulted in a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.89 (Simulatedaggressive vs SimulatedindolentP < .001), similar to patients with actual CTCs enumeration (HR 2.76; P < .001). The classifier's performance was then tested on an independent retrospective database comprising 446 consecutive hormone receptor (HR)-positive HER2-negative MBC patients. The model further stratified clinical subgroups usually considered prognostically homogeneous such as patients with bone-only or liver metastases. Bone-only disease classified as Simulatedaggressive had a significantly worse overall survival (OS; P < .0001), while patients with liver metastases classified as Simulatedindolent had a significantly better prognosis (P < .0001). Consistent results were observed for patients who had undergone CTCs enumeration in the pooled population. The differential prognostic impact of endocrine- (ET) and chemotherapy (CT) was explored across the simulated subgroups. No significant differences were observed between ET and CT in the overall population, both in terms of progression-free survival (PFS) and OS. In contrast, a statistically significant difference, favoring CT over ET was observed among Simulatedaggressive patients (HR: 0.62; P = .030 and HR: 0.60; P = .037, respectively, for PFS and OS).

SUBMITTER: Gerratana L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9255982 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundCirculating tumor DNA (ctDNA) offers minimally invasive means to repeatedly interrogate tumor genomes, providing opportunities to monitor clonal dynamics induced by metastasis and therapeutic selective pressures. In metastatic cancers, ctDNA profiling allows for simultaneous analysis of both local and distant sites of recurrence. Despite the promise of ctDNA sampling, its utility in real-time genetic monitoring remains largely unexplored.MethodsIn this exploratory analysis, we characterize high-frequency ctDNA sample series collected over narrow time frames from seven patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, each undergoing treatment with Cabozantinib, a multi-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (NCT01738438, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01738438 ). Applying orthogonal whole exome sequencing, ultra-low pass whole genome sequencing, and 396-gene targeted panel sequencing, we analyzed 42 plasma-derived ctDNA libraries, representing 4-8 samples per patient with 6-42 days between samples. Integrating tumor fraction, copy number, and somatic variant information, we model tumor clonal dynamics, predict neoantigens, and evaluate consistency of genomic information from orthogonal assays.ResultsWe measured considerable variation in ctDNA tumor faction in each patient, often conflicting with RECIST imaging response metrics. In orthogonal sequencing, we found high concordance between targeted panel and whole exome sequencing in both variant detection and variant allele frequency estimation (specificity = 95.5%, VAF correlation, r = 0.949), Copy number remained generally stable, despite resolution limitations posed by low tumor fraction. Through modeling, we inferred and tracked distinct clonal populations specific to each patient and built phylogenetic trees revealing alterations in hallmark breast cancer drivers, including TP53, PIK3CA, CDK4, and PTEN. Our modeling revealed varied responses to therapy, with some individuals displaying stable clonal profiles, while others showed signs of substantial expansion or reduction in prevalence, with characteristic alterations of varied literature annotation in relation to the study drug. Finally, we predicted and tracked neoantigen-producing alterations across time, exposing translationally relevant detection patterns.ConclusionsDespite technical challenges arising from low tumor content, metastatic ctDNA monitoring can aid our understanding of response and progression, while minimizing patient risk and discomfort. In this study, we demonstrate the potential for high-frequency monitoring of evolving genomic features, providing an important step toward scalable, translational genomics for clinical decision making.

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Modeling the Prognostic Impact of Circulating Tumor Cells Enumeration in Metastatic Breast Cancer for Clinical Trial Design Simulation.

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